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  • #860,841
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:14am Dec 6, 2013 2:14am
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  • #860,842
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:14am Dec 6, 2013 2:14am
Quoting Davit
Smart thing to do is expect the worse and place limit shorts when you think it will spike up say 3750-38 and once triggered simply wait for price to settle down. Euro zone is in deeper shit then US in terms of economy hence longer term bull is unrealistic to expect. There is already momentum to start cutting QE as early as Jan 014 My limit is ready triggers fine not triggered fine as well. To overcome the anxiety of draw-down reduce your lot size and allow additional lots to be used later. Take 1 lot or 2 divide into 4 or 8 mini lots and use them...
Agree, euro zone is still underwater. UK will come out first among US and Eurozone.

Consider to put Sell limit before NFP : 1.3750/60. It seems we had clue yesterday on ADP.

Still holding Short EJ @ 139.50 and AU @ 0.9052
  • #860,843
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:14am Dec 6, 2013 2:14am
“who wishes to fight must first count the cost”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“One mark of a great soldier is that he fight on his own terms or fights not at all.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

If cost of News coming up is greater then you are willing to pay then skip the battle all together.That's tactic as well.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #860,844
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:16am Dec 6, 2013 2:16am
Been a long time since I put a mutli-TF analysis on this thread so here you go:

Monthly: (see chart)
There is a falling trend since the dizzy heights back in 2008
The current bull is an ABC correction of the last bear run 1.493x -> 1.204x and has made a 61.8% retrace so far.
As long as 1.383x holds I first consider a correction of the bull 1.204x -> 1.383x in play.
The upside scenario on monthly is limited, I have potential targets up as high as 1.430x but the falling trend is likely to negate these and the RR skew is very poor for longs so even if it goes there I am not interested in trading it.

Weekly/Daily: (see Daily Chart)
The weekly pattern reflects the daily, but I will discuss as daily for greater clarity.
As per the monthly as long as 1.383x holds I am looking at a downside correction in play.
Since the 1.383x high the price has made an AB of and ABC corrective pattern and currently sits in the B leg (ie: B may not be complete)
As long as yesterdays high holds I will consider the B leg complete and the yellow bubbles on chart represent my targets for the correction
If the high yields I stand aside to see what happens with 1.383x and look for a new potential completion of the B leg below 1.383x
RR for the downside is very good with yesterdays high being close and yet the targets so far below.

H4: (see chart)
Breaking down the Daily correction in play...
H4 shows that the B leg has now corrected the bear 1.383x -> 1.329x to full target zone (yellow bubble).
If 1.367x yields then the B leg is not complete and I wait to see if it will post a new top below 1.371x
If 1.367x holds then shorts are favoured as per Daily scenario
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbMonthly 2013 Dec 6.png Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbDaily 2013 Dec 6.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbH4 2013 Dec 6.png Size: 17 KB
  • #860,845
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:16am Dec 6, 2013 2:16am
Quoting atria
{quote} Agree, euro zone is still underwater. UK will come out first among US and Eurozone. Consider to put Sell limit before NFP : 1.3750/60. It seems we had clue yesterday on ADP. Still holding Short EJ @ 139.50 and AU @ 0.9052

don't overlook swissy longs as well.Not often you get under 90
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #860,846
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:20am Dec 6, 2013 2:20am
Quoting fontu
{quote} May be but still doubtful to the full strength , need more time tests > proving itself for craving huge intention to bull though not thinking yet without bottom ranging for more months & ur bears may be there perhaps . fontu {image} {image}
Yes, should push to 1.37/1.38 first before bear trend next year
  • #860,847
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:23am Dec 6, 2013 2:23am
Quoting Davit
{quote} don't overlook swissy longs as well.Not often you get under 90
Yes, Davit! For me, Swissy is not good for averaging due to high correlation with EU.

Got lost Swissy last night, Entry at 0.8983, stopped out at 0.8960.
Tight SL, but still got profit from EJ
  • #860,848
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:24am Dec 6, 2013 2:24am
Quoting atria
{quote} EUR/USD = 1.6000? unbelievable. Lowest record interest rate, LTRO, should push EU back to 1.2xx next year.

pick a good place land and damaged house that can be repaired or buy an apartment?
between Euro GBP USD AUD CAD ?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #860,849
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:25am Dec 6, 2013 2:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} ) so what is left in the basket?
YOU (not you).

95% of traders focus on something else…..

Infy, if you reply can you make it short? ...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #860,850
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:27am Dec 6, 2013 2:27am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} pick a good place land and damaged house that can be repaired or buy an apartment? between Euro GBP USD AUD CAD ?
Rent an apartment during repairing damaged house on a good place
  • #860,851
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:31am Dec 6, 2013 2:31am
Quoting atria
Rent an apartment during repairing damaged house on a good place
Nah, just take into account half of FEDs QE is aimed at MBS market and BOE and BOJ are pumping it as well. Once inflation starts to bite, they are gonna need to withdraw, banks are gonna get hit hard, rates will spike, housing will crash again, and I am gonna buy new flat for pocket change. Am gonna quote this call in five years .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #860,852
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:33am Dec 6, 2013 2:33am
Quoting milam
{quote} YOU (not you). 95% of traders focus on something else….. Infy, if you reply can you make it short? ...
of course (for short)

100% agreement
  • #860,853
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:35am Dec 6, 2013 2:35am
Quoting hamedrx
{image}
hey, congrats on your first post. can we exchange log-in account? with your user name i can ban a lot of people, that is going to be a lot of fun. i can ban chicky, and a lot people here, lol.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #860,854
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:39am Dec 6, 2013 2:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Nah, just take into account half of FEDs QE is aimed at MBS market and BOE and BOJ are pumping it as well. Once inflation starts to bite, they are gonna need to withdraw, banks are gonna get hit hard, rates will spike, housing will crash again, and I am gonna buy new flat for pocket change. Am gonna quote this call in five years .
Haha, please remind this quote! We'll see in a year.

To anybody from Emerging Market (esp. Indonesia), brace yourself for getting hit by The Fed and Uncle Ben for the last time before he step down.

Taper will be back on the table
  • #860,855
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:40am Dec 6, 2013 2:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} of course (for short) 100% agreement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wG6Cgmgn5U

no vouch please.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #860,856
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:44am Dec 6, 2013 2:44am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} hey, congrats on your first post. can we exchange log-in account? with your user name i can ban a lot of people, that is going to be a lot of fun. i can ban chicky, and a lot people here, lol.
it won't work...

1) it has taken him 8 years to make one post, he will never get enough posts to ban anybody
2) if you ban somebody for no reason I will have to ban you, therefore you will not get to ban everybody that you want
  • #860,857
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:46am Dec 6, 2013 2:46am
Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably on Track for Best Year Since 2005
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ince-2005.html

Hmm, get ready.
Don't forget to put your Stop, in case doesn't meet expectations
  • #860,858
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:47am Dec 6, 2013 2:47am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} it won't work... 1) it has taken him 8 years to make one post, he will never get enough posts to ban anybody 2) if you ban somebody for no reason I will have to ban you, therefore you will not get to ban everybody that you want
how can you ban a user that registered in 2005? almost 5 years earlier than you.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #860,859
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:47am Dec 6, 2013 2:47am
Quoting atria
{quote} Haha, please remind this quote! We'll see in a year. To anybody from Emerging Market (esp. Indonesia), brace yourself for getting hit by The Fed and Uncle Ben for the last time before he step down. Taper will be back on the table
Really?
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #860,860
  • Dec 6, 2013 2:49am Dec 6, 2013 2:49am
Quoting hamedrx
{image}
hey mate, hurry up, make 100 posts, and you can ban anyone you do not like.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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