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  • #3,161
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:56am Dec 4, 2013 12:56am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Hi how do you confirm that a trend has ended?
I wait for the series of hihger highs and higher lows to be broken. I use trend lines a lot f that helps.
sometimes combine overbought stochs + reversal candle + trendline break and I start to look for reversal

For me its all about confluence. Sometimes though I have targets of previous strong support/resistance as TP areas

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,162
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:32am Dec 4, 2013 1:32am
Lumber
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,163
  • Edited 3:26am Dec 4, 2013 3:10am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hey Olu, I appreciate the contrary thinking from your side. I am concerned though: try to find a USDJPY bear: go on, see if you can find one. I'll bet you can't. Everywhere I look people are bullish USDJPY. Every time everyone thinks something's going to go one way, it goes another. Well not every time. Maybe not even most of the time LOL. But at least some of the time. You know how it works. You have a point though about the $ being the reserve currency. That's a very good point.
I was (on a all JPY crosses) but died hard as my timing was obviously wrong. I like what you say BW that one should respect price, I would say first respect price action, before try a thesis that can work or fail.
  • #3,164
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:11am Dec 4, 2013 3:11am
THANK YOU OLU for putting all the efforts to keep the blog active and to welcome all of us.
Cheers to the $ bulls league
  • #3,165
  • Edited 4:19am Dec 4, 2013 3:17am | Edited 4:19am
Thank you BW for your input on Oil. I understand now that Oil is not always in an inverse relation with $ cause it is heavily affected by fundamentals (so is Gold). Technically, one should have seen the break to the up from the price action pattern starting on the 27th of Nov: false break of an important support, then another test and another rejection, then breaking up the down-channel, all that while RSI is oversold and so was Stoch and MACD coming from negative area....what more?! I was very blind with the inverse relation issue with the $ ...new lesson learned.
  • #3,166
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:07am Dec 4, 2013 9:07am
Dollar Index Today
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,167
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:10am Dec 4, 2013 9:10am
Quoting Olu
Dollar Index Today {image}

At the time when $ jumped up Gold also jumped up, it is nerve breaking really
  • #3,168
  • Dec 4, 2013 10:03am Dec 4, 2013 10:03am
Quoting Olu
Srt I have been looking at the silver chart intraday and there might be some upmove in store. I would like to see 1960 area for a better sell. Olu {image}

SRT: silver did retreat intraday, nice call
  • #3,169
  • Dec 4, 2013 10:23am Dec 4, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Olu
Srt I have been looking at the silver chart intraday and there might be some upmove in store. I would like to see 1960 area for a better sell. Olu {image}
do you put a limit sell at 1960 or you wait for reversal confirmation ?
  • #3,170
  • Dec 4, 2013 11:58am Dec 4, 2013 11:58am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} do you put a limit sell at 1960 or you wait for reversal confirmation ?
I look for reversal candles etc around that area

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,171
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:01pm Dec 4, 2013 12:01pm
Just looked at the charts for the first time today after getting a msg from broker that gold is up by more than 2% (I'm short gold but also short a gold put so I'm kinda 1/2 short). Very interesting development on the old eurusd and gbpusd etc...makes me think....this is it guys! Big drop coming for old mr eurusd! This is what the bastards do to try to take out shorts...lots of violent whipsawing before the eventual drop. Up down up down etc. I can't stress enough, this is what I've seen before massive drops on previous occasions. They don't make it easy..which is why I'm largely not watching....just got to wait, 1.33 is coming..at least.

All the above in my humble opinion of course....bear in mind it's just my view, which could be epically wrong!....posting here for cathartic reasons...I don't want anybody to lose money on this if it goes to 1.40 from here which it could very well do!!! In the short term, they might want to push a bit harder, go over the top tomorrow for 1.3650 etc.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,172
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:01pm Dec 4, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} At the time when $ jumped up Gold also jumped up, it is nerve breaking really

Rehab. This market is crazy and stomach churning. I will send you some of my antacids

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,173
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:05pm Dec 4, 2013 12:05pm
Just seen the old 10 year notes big drop, but USDJPY is sinking. Eh, makes you think. Yields higher, but USDJPY dropping. Eh eh, something is rotten in the state of Denmark.....Friday is gonna be interesting.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,174
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:06pm Dec 4, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Rehab. This market is crazy and stomach churning. I will send you some of my antacids Olu

I was just about to write you this :
Secretary: bulls are doing bad.
  • #3,175
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:07pm Dec 4, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Just looked at the charts for the first time today after getting a msg from broker that gold is up by more than 2% (I'm short gold but also short a gold put so I'm kinda 1/2 short). Very interesting development on the old eurusd and gbpusd etc...makes me think....this is it guys! Big drop coming for old mr eurusd! This is what the bastards do to try to take out shorts...lots of violent whipsawing before the eventual drop. Up down up down etc. I can't stress enough, this is what I've seen before massive drops on previous occasions. They don't make...

I wish you are right, I decided to close my short Euro and wait for a better selling opportunity.
  • #3,176
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:11pm Dec 4, 2013 12:11pm
Dollar Index
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,177
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:13pm Dec 4, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} I wish you are right, I decided to close my short Euro and wait for a better selling opportunity.
You may well get one. Nobody knows of course, least of all me.
It seems it's stuck in either a bear flag, or a triangle. The flag, it if breaks upwards out of the triangle, extends to somewhere around 1.37 depending of course on time.
That would not be pleasant for me. Hence it's better for me not to watch
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,178
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:15pm Dec 4, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting Olu
Dollar Index {image}
I think they won't be able to resist going for a fake break lower....must be a ton of stops above 1.36, they're gonna go stop hunting, I think, perhaps tomorrow, or maybe on the NFPs on Friday.
Anyway, going to check back at the close..back to my piano practice...good luck guys.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,179
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:07pm Dec 4, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting Olu
Srt I have been looking at the silver chart intraday and there might be some upmove in store. I would like to see 1960 area for a better sell. Olu {image}

Good call Olu. Now it's rallied above the area I thought was a double bottom a few days ago that failed. I'll continue to hold my 2 bullish positions.
As bad as it looked yesterday, the weekly still looks OK if this area holds as support.
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  • #3,180
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:17pm Dec 4, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think they won't be able to resist going for a fake break lower....must be a ton of stops above 1.36, they're gonna go stop hunting, I think, perhaps tomorrow, or maybe on the NFPs on Friday. Anyway, going to check back at the close..back to my piano practice...good luck guys.

I agree with you BW. I am sort of allowing for that by lowering it to 80.40 and lloking for a daily close below it. Hope this is enough. A more conservative way to play this is to wait for movement out of the triangle. That might be the bet way to play this

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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