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  • #3,141
  • Dec 3, 2013 6:01am Dec 3, 2013 6:01am
No panic-the situation seems to be calming down.
  • #3,142
  • Dec 3, 2013 6:19am Dec 3, 2013 6:19am
Quoting rehab
By the way anyone knows why Oil went higher when $ went up and silver and gold went down? ...
I think the reason is there are too many shorts covering at the moment. I am still bearish but I am looking for a retracement first. That is my best guess. If my $ bull idea kicks in then $80 oil could happen longer term

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,143
  • Dec 3, 2013 9:23am Dec 3, 2013 9:23am
Lean Hogs

Had high hopes for this one but it was never to be...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,144
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:47am Dec 3, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Olu
Lean Hogs Had high hopes for this one but it was never to be... {image}
On the fundamental side, I wouldn't be looking to buy hogs or cattle in the near future. With corn prices low now & pork/beef prices relatively high, producers are increasing herd sizes as their margins are pretty good now. Producers can lock in a profit by buying corn futures & selling a portion of their production in the futures market. I think prices may continue to drift lower. There's also a glut of turkey's in freezers @ producers so for the consumer it's about getting the lowest cost meat available.
  • #3,145
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:01pm Dec 3, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting srt
{quote} On the fundamental side, I wouldn't be looking to buy hogs or cattle in the near future. With corn prices low now & pork/beef prices relatively high, producers are increasing herd sizes as their margins are pretty good now. Producers can lock in a profit by buying corn futures & selling a portion of their production in the futures market. I think prices may continue to drift lower. There's also a glut of turkey's in freezers @ producers so for the consumer it's about getting the lowest cost meat available.

Thanks Str for the fundamental info. I am going to check it out some more and look for a shorting opportunity in this one. I will be posting what I find out and intend to do as usual on this thread. Man it did look like it was going higher...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,146
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:06pm Dec 3, 2013 12:06pm
Check out the dire performance of the US$ today. You need a box of Settlers by your side all the time if you trade this baby

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,147
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:54pm Dec 3, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Excellent analysis Boy Wonder. The above is reasons you laid out is the very reason I am the secretary of the Dollar Bulls League The fact that they tried to push it lower - Jawboning, QExxxxx. More upside to come imho... Thanks for the excellent views BW Olu


Nice pullback today on EURUSD. Added 20% to my short. Of course, I could be wrong, for all I know they could take it back up to 1.38 for a double top. That...would be painful.
EURJPY also looks primed for a good drop. And GBPUSD, although EURGBP looks very heavy so the weapon of choice is short EURUSD.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,148
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I think the reason is there are too many shorts covering at the moment. I am still bearish but I am looking for a retracement first. That is my best guess. If my $ bull idea kicks in then $80 oil could happen longer term Olu
I read an article in the FT Olu a week or so back, said some analysts reckon price of WTIC goes up from here (where it was at the time) going into winter for various fundamental reasons, and that the Iran thing was a side-show.
The thing you've got to watch with WTIC is the export ban thing, it's what's crushing the price but some enterprising peeps are finding ways around it by at least partially refining the stuff which thereby allows them to get an export licence. The real kicker will come when it looks like legislation will come forth to modify or remove the export ban. And of course we won't hear about it until it comes out in the news, i.e. I expect price will move first.
Got some longs on and some short calls. Just going to leave em until expiry then hopefully roll both the longs and the calls, I don't see this going anywhere outside of a 90 - 98 band for a while.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,149
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:28pm Dec 3, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I read an article in the FT Olu a week or so back, said some analysts reckon price of WTIC goes up from here (where it was at the time) going into winter for various fundamental reasons, and that the Iran thing was a side-show. The thing you've got to watch with WTIC is the export ban thing, it's what's crushing the price but some enterprising peeps are finding ways around it by at least partially refining the stuff which thereby allows them to get an export licence. The real kicker will come when it looks like legislation will come forth...

Hi BW thanks for your input on Crude. BTW thanks to all who have contributed lately to this thread - Golfer, Srt, Rehab Trexy123. You guys have transformed this thread from being a monologue into a gentle wave of ideas and inputs

Thanks to all the readers who read the thread as well and looking forward to reading your posts too


BW somehow sowhere deep rooted in me I have a longterm deflationary view of assets. This is the real reason for my downmove expectancy. We are already seeing it in gold and metals. House prices in the US etc despite QExxxx. How can the price of anything go down in the face of all this printed cash? Hence my deflationary view. So guys please bear with me when I drone on and one on this one

Back to crude oil. I hear you BW. As I told replied Rehab sone posts past I am looking to sell upmoves in crude. So if price smells 98 and there are reversal patterns/candles I'll be there shorting all the way

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,150
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:34pm Dec 3, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Nice pullback today on EURUSD. Added 20% to my short. Of course, I could be wrong, for all I know they could take it back up to 1.38 for a double top. That...would be painful. EURJPY also looks primed for a good drop. And GBPUSD, although EURGBP looks very heavy so the weapon of choice is short EURUSD.
We in the Dollar Bulls League agree that this upmove in the Euro, although unexpected, provides a better selling opportunity but we have not made any accommodation to price getting to 1.3800. We also welcome any reversal from here...

Thanks BW

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,151
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:52pm Dec 3, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi BW thanks for your input on Crude. BTW thanks to all who have contributed lately to this thread - Golfer, Srt, Rehab Trexy123. You guys have transformed this thread from being a monologue into a gentle wave of ideas and inputs Thanks to all the readers who read the thread as well and looking forward to reading your posts too BW somehow sowhere deep rooted in me I have a longterm deflationary view of assets. This is the real reason for my downmove expectancy. We are already seeing it in gold and metals. House prices in the US...
Cheers Olu..you've got a nice thread going here btw..you all know your game well, and not a child in sight. I should stop by more often

Interesting comment on an article on crude I just read on the FT...basically the gist of it is, the Arabs are selling crude at a steep discount to the U.S. market, i.e. a heavy discount for the same stuff they sell much more expensively to the rest of the world. They could stop doing this, but they probably won't. So it appears the U.S. and the Arabs are conspiring in a game to effectively maintain the status quo, which is a broken market to the vast benefit of the U.S. End result is the U.S. continues to enjoy its massive competitive advantage re cheap energy. This should continue to support the dollar. I reckon you can probably make a small fortune over the next year just selling puts against the dollar e.g. selling EUR/USD calls etc. The trends in place are huge, and unlikely to shift any time soon. At least, long enough in order to roll any losers up/down and out. Well, that's the theory anyway. As we know to our cost, nothing in trading is easy.

FT article: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e0f0b42a-5...omment-5953902
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,152
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:58pm Dec 3, 2013 1:58pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} ...somehow sowhere deep rooted in me I have a longterm deflationary view of assets. This is the real reason for my downmove expectancy. We are already seeing it in gold and metals. House prices in the US etc despite QExxxx. How can the price of anything go down in the face of all this printed cash? Hence my deflationary view. So guys please bear with me when I drone on and one on this one Back to crude oil. I hear you BW. As I told replied Rehab sone posts past I am looking to sell upmoves in crude. So if price smells 98 and there are reversal...
Agree with you on 98, seen it mentioned elsewhere though, and I'd thought it myself, so it makes me wonder if it will get there...maybe it's just too obvious? It could be the top of the channel, can't remember....

As to assets, what I think has happened is that the epic credit bubble has burst, dating from (some say) as far back as the 70s. Credit is simply future consumption foregone. So at some point, you gotta expect credit today is going to cause consumption to disappear at some point in the future. This is what I think has happened. That bubble has burst, it took decades in the making and hence all that QE is just trying to take the place of the foregone consumption.
But deflation, the CBs will fight tooth and nail to prevent it. Not sure they'll succeed though, if Japan is any guide. But I'll bet Draghi is not going to risk the periphery becoming Japan 2.0. At least, he'll try his damnedest to prevent it.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,153
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:23pm Dec 3, 2013 2:23pm
Dollar Index Today
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,154
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:44pm Dec 3, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} But I'll bet Draghi is not going to risk the periphery becoming Japan 2.0. At least, he'll try his damnedest to prevent it.
So we might see parity eurusd looooooooooong term....

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,155
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:52pm Dec 3, 2013 2:52pm
Srt

I have been looking at the silver chart intraday and there might be some upmove in store. I would like to see 1960 area for a better sell.

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,156
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:06pm Dec 3, 2013 4:06pm
Bearish engulfing on USDJPY today. That signals the uptrend (this particular leg from the 200DMA) is either over or close to it IMO. That doesn't mean it can't go higher than today's high. But it does suggest it won't, and even if it does, it's likely to be a final squeeze before a decent correction to this leg up from the 200DMA. We have no idea of knowing how deep that correction goes, 50%, 38%, 62% etc, and whether we get another leg up thereafter e.g. to the much trumpeted 105 area. But between now and next April, I'd expect that 200DMA to be tested again, and probably to fail, as the market attempts to bust Abe's balls and force him to put up or shut up.

It's interesting that all that QE has caused the yen to get hammered; it's lost 1/3 of its value. One third! The U.S.'s own QE seems in the end to have done diddly squat to the dollar. COULD THE SAME THING HAPPEN TO THE YEN? If so this whole leg up could retrace. Think of the opportunities! Shorting the yen crosses all the way back down!!! Still, it's very early days yet, you gotta respect price to prevent your account getting killed by a thesis that turns out to be either wrong or early.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,157
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:29pm Dec 3, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Bearish engulfing on USDJPY today. That signals the uptrend (this particular leg from the 200DMA) is either over or close to it IMO. That doesn't mean it can't go higher than today's high. But it does suggest it won't, and even if it does, it's likely to be a final squeeze before a decent correction to this leg up from the 200DMA. We have no idea of knowing how deep that correction goes, 50%, 38%, 62% etc, and whether we get another leg up thereafter e.g. to the much trumpeted 105 area. But between now and next April, I'd expect that 200DMA to be...
BW

I think this downmove in the usdjpy is temporary. In my EW speak the thrust out of the triangle should at least clear the previous peak of 103.72. Now after that 103.72 I cant say. Abe will resist the reversal of all his good and expensive work in weakening the jpy. I would say the US$ didnt weaken as much partly because it is the reserve currency meaning it will always be needed. So even if prices want to fall trader and commerce demand will artificially buoy it up. Now take an economy that is 'getting better' add tapering talks to the equation and you have a strengthening $

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,158
  • Dec 3, 2013 5:33pm Dec 3, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} BW I think this downmove in the usdjpy is temporary. In my EW speak the thrust out of the triangle should at least clear the previous peak of 103.72. Now after that 103.72 I cant say. Abe will resist the reversal of all his good and expensive work in weakening the jpy. I would say the US$ didnt weaken as much partly because it is the reserve currency meaning it will always be needed. So even if prices want to fall trader and commerce demand will artificially buoy it up. Now take an economy that is 'getting better' add tapering talks to the...
Hey Olu, I appreciate the contrary thinking from your side. I am concerned though: try to find a USDJPY bear: go on, see if you can find one. I'll bet you can't.
Everywhere I look people are bullish USDJPY.
Every time everyone thinks something's going to go one way, it goes another. Well not every time. Maybe not even most of the time LOL. But at least some of the time. You know how it works.
You have a point though about the $ being the reserve currency. That's a very good point.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,159
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:27pm Dec 3, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hey Olu, I appreciate the contrary thinking from your side. I am concerned though: try to find a USDJPY bear: go on, see if you can find one. I'll bet you can't. Everywhere I look people are bullish USDJPY. Every time everyone thinks something's going to go one way, it goes another. Well not every time. Maybe not even most of the time LOL. But at least some of the time. You know how it works. You have a point though about the $ being the reserve currency. That's a very good point.

Thanks BW for your reply. I hear your point about everyone being bullish usdjpy hence all committed and no one to propel price upwards anymore. Another example (although this is happening now) is where everyone was looking for a top in the stock market instead of flowing on with it. Then we then look back and see that we were looking for a top 600 FTSE points ago. If we had found a way to flow with it we could have raked in about 400 out of the 600 if not more. Trading is fluid. Even die-hard $ bulls need to know then it is good to sell the $. I find that more and more I need to stand back and see my views from another standpoint.
But one thing I always look for is the trend. Milk that trend. Getting in the train might present difficulties ie no pull packs to join the trend but once I am on the train and it is going my way I just hang on for the ride till the trend ends (or the volatility shakes my footing)

Thsnks BW. Like the master Jedi would say "Serious food for thought you have provided"

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,160
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:47pm Dec 3, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks BW for your reply. I hear your point about everyone being bullish usdjpy hence all committed and no one to propel price upwards anymore. Another example (although this is happening now) is where everyone was looking for a top in the stock market instead of flowing on with it. Then we then look back and see that we were looking for a top 600 FTSE points ago. If we had found a way to flow with it we could have raked in about 400 out of the 600 if not more. Trading is fluid. Even die-hard $ bulls need to know then it is good to sell...
Hi how do you confirm that a trend has ended?
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