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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #71,201
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:18am Dec 3, 2013 10:18am
Added another full lot long Dow Jones US Dollar Index at 10611
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,202
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:50am Dec 3, 2013 11:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Detroit eligible for bankruptcy protection: Judge http://www.cnbc.com/id/101242616 {image} {image}
Three of us rode our Alien scooters over to see the Henry Ford Museum in Detroit, this spring and the other 2 wanted to go downtown to see the Pawn Stars. And when we pulled into the mega parking lot, they were afraid to stop. 98% Black, 150 people where lined up to either pay for what they dropped off last week and take it back home or were dropping something off to have some pocket cash. Alien John watched the scooters with his face pasted against the glass window to make sure they were still there. He was worried the most . LOL
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #71,203
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:11pm Dec 3, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Three of us rode our Alien scooters over to see the Henry Ford Museum in Detroit, this spring and the other 2 wanted to go downtown to see the Pawn Stars. And when we pulled into the mega parking lot, they were afraid to stop. 98% Black, 150 people where lined up to either pay for what they dropped off last week and take it back home or were dropping something off to have some pocket cash. Alien John watched the scooters with his face pasted against the glass window to make sure they were still there. He was worried the most . LOL

  • #71,204
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:28pm Dec 3, 2013 2:28pm
Fed's Williams in comments to Reuters
- Would be disappointed if QE3 didn’t end in 2014.
- Would not lower the unemployment thresholds.
- Fed should cap QE3 and end it over a period of months once completely confident job market is on right track.
- Unemployment could be at 6.5% a lot sooner than we expect.
- Fed should be more concrete about what could prompt rate hikes once unemployment falls below 6.5%.
- Need to emphasize that for rates to rise, we will need to see further economic and jobs growth.
- Fed discusses monetary policy at every meeting, this one will be no different.
- In favor of cutting interest on excess bank reserves.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,205
  • Edited 4:41pm Dec 3, 2013 4:31pm | Edited 4:41pm
No clue to know what they did with the cash, if and when this was hedged but It had to have made some impact. Rates have ticked higher in general this week as massive amounts of paper have hit the market, think there 30bn getting done this week alone. From my experience corporate issuers usually hedged the interest rate exposure via swaps during the same day they issued paper. That may explain why rates have been so jumpy this week. FX is a different animal obviously, no way to know what they did and corporate sales guys would be dumb to leak info about whether Microsoft hedged or converted these EUR or USD to the other.

More importantly, 3.5bn eur of new securities hit the market today. Wonder if investors not in EUR converted over to pick up these bonds.

Dec 3rd 2013
Microsoft Sells $8 Billion of Debt
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...LEFTTopStories
MicrosoftCorp.MSFT -0.36%sold $8 billion of debt in the largest combined dollar- and euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bond deal in more than a decade, according to data provider Dealogic.
The dual-currency deal—featuring $3.25 billion in U.S. dollar bonds and 3.5 billion ($4.75 billion) in euro bonds—is the largest U.S. dollar and euro deal since AT&T Inc.'s five-part $10.1 billion deal in November 2001, Dealogic said.
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  • #71,206
  • Dec 3, 2013 5:59pm Dec 3, 2013 5:59pm
Both rejections off the bottom have come right back and the crawl continues...I am dubious
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  • #71,207
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:17am Dec 4, 2013 1:17am
Eurozone growth slows further as France and Italy suffer renewed contractions
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Surve...3e6a2eef32e2fa
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,208
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:22am Dec 4, 2013 1:22am
Intraday trend line vs daily and weekly pivots. Place your bets.
Looking head&Shoulderish to me.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,209
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:32am Dec 4, 2013 1:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Added another full lot long Dow Jones US Dollar Index at 10611 {image}
So far so good.

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Click to Enlarge Name: usdollardaily.png Size: 79 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,210
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:40am Dec 4, 2013 1:40am
Two more EZ data releases coming up.
Retail sales and q/q revised GDP
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,211
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:01am Dec 4, 2013 2:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Two more EZ data releases coming up. Retail sales and q/q revised GDP
EZ m/m retail sales comes in at -0.2% vs +0.2% expected.
Better than last month which was -0.6%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,212
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:02am Dec 4, 2013 2:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
Intraday trend line vs daily and weekly pivots. Place your bets. Looking head&Shoulderish to me. {image}
And the weak retail sales helps hold the trend line.
So, now do we go down to test daily & weekly pivots?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,213
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:11am Dec 4, 2013 2:11am
Q3 EZ revised GDP -0.4% vs -0.4% expected y/y
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,214
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:13am Dec 4, 2013 2:13am
Sell gilts, Treasuries, bunds, gold, swiss, yen or anything which used to be safe says Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at Unicredit.

  1. Says US very likely to taper in January, will be gradual but a one way road
  2. Is super bullish equities across the world for next few years
  3. US at end of 30 year bull market in fixed income
  4. Warns to be very careful with the fragile 5
  5. Jobless rate a crazy indicator to run monetary policy
  6. Global risk free rate will move higher
  7. Rapid rise in market rates won’t be allowed
  8. ECB won’t allow importing of US monetary tightening
  9. ECB operation probable in Q1 2014

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,215
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:15am Dec 4, 2013 2:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} And the weak retail sales helps hold the trend line. So, now do we go down to test daily & weekly pivots?
Weak news for the Euro, it's going up of course. What else !!!!!

Squeeze a few more of those shorts out ready for the ADP and NFP?

Where would you put the neckline on that H&S PT?
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,216
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:17am Dec 4, 2013 2:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sell gilts, Treasuries, bunds, gold, swiss, yen or anything which used to be safe says Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at Unicredit. Says US very likely to taper in January, .....

if this was FB , I would click one big LIKE on this
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #71,217
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:19am Dec 4, 2013 2:19am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} Weak news for the Euro, it's going up of course. What else !!!!! Squeeze a few more of those shorts out ready for the ADP and NFP? Where would you put the neckline on that H&S PT?
Hmmm. That's a tough call (Euro up I mean). Lots of resistance here. I "should" take a news catalyst to drive it through.
...but of course the Euro has already fooled us all enough times.

I'm sitting tight till I see a break below 3480 or above 3660
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,218
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:38am Dec 4, 2013 2:38am
Quoting bikov
{quote} if this was FB , I would click one big LIKE on this
True in FF you cannot "LIKE" a post. You have to "LIKE" the poster.
I think this is a feature that is lacking here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,219
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:11am Dec 4, 2013 3:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Added another full lot long Dow Jones US Dollar Index at 10611 {image}

LOL - a Mil here, a Mil there and soon you're talking money
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #71,220
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:12am Dec 4, 2013 3:12am
Hi

We have daily bullish engulfing and mixed data from EU again. Great PMI from GER, better from Spain and weak data from France and Italy. I'm surprised with Spain and i guess it's positive, as Spain was also lagging Germany together with France and Italy. Worse data from France somehow connects with your view of French bonds to trade higher than current levels which is EUR negative if im correct and this also means new stimulus and / or rate cut coming to boost growth. GDP at -0,4% YOY is not any CB would like to see.

Shall we be going short based on that? Still in mind there is US data to come today which will move the market, question where? Following reports from businessinsider i'd say good data is coming shortly from US.


Also, I decided to start from the bottom and study again my TA & PA materials/books, but also I need deep market / cash flow understanding to not hunt for 10-20pips but for bigger moves which will also help in catching “lunch” pips. Could you recommend any readings / books I could find to learn more?
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