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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,101
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:35pm Dec 3, 2013 7:35pm
critical zone 15100~15000
  • #40,102
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:42pm Dec 3, 2013 7:42pm
my short target @101.2x~101.3x

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hE7ct7Tj/
  • #40,103
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:43pm Dec 3, 2013 7:43pm
This is nothing more than a healthy correction, probably even limited to intra-day action. It was due, and I warned about these markets moving in one direction to quickly. I don’t see this being a repeat of late May, however if it is, I hope you’re not one of those suckers buying pullbacks upwards of 100.

If you’re not overly margined you shouldn’t be worrying too much, just yet.
  • #40,104
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:44pm Dec 3, 2013 7:44pm
my nikkei price is fxpro`s mt4 future #NKDZ3.
  • #40,105
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:53pm Dec 3, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting seandean
This is nothing more than a healthy correction, probably even limited to intra-day action. It was due, and I warned about these markets moving in one direction to quickly. I don’t see this being a repeat of late May, however if it is, I hope you’re not one of those suckers buying pullbacks upwards of 100. If you’re not overly margined you shouldn’t be worrying too much, just yet.
sorry
i`m not well english.
so i can`t reply.
  • #40,106
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:57pm Dec 3, 2013 7:57pm
A kind of support at 102.25/30
Nikkei down 2.59% , somehow I think that it will close with smaller negative number (in green would be very optimistic). Down for 2.59% is too much even for the crazy Nikkei. It seems that this is a take profit going on.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,107
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:02pm Dec 3, 2013 8:02pm
Looks like a legit sell setup. Daily bearish engulfing candle. Retrace to 50% of that daily candle. Poor follow up 4hr candle.

Out of 1/2 of my position and as a bull still all I'm looking for is range.

Oh and should bulls get it over 102.50 then I'd be comfortable thinking price is in a range.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,108
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:07pm Dec 3, 2013 8:07pm
There's a saying that the open is for amateurs and the close is for pros and that's where they make their decision to buy or sell. That said there is a nice little pin bar on the 4 hour chart at the close.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,109
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:12pm Dec 3, 2013 8:12pm
Hm, honestly I don't know much about opening/closing theory, but if this support holds, my theory about TP process which is happening at Nikkei/UJ (a healthy correction) would be proven. Let's see..
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,110
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:20pm Dec 3, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting bikov
Hm, honestly I don't know much about opening/closing theory, but if this support holds, my theory about TP process which is happening at Nikkei/UJ (a healthy correction) would be proven. Let's see..
I also think there is good support in the 102.30 area, but I thought we needed something else to talk about too ;p
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,111
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:23pm Dec 3, 2013 8:23pm
And to add that at usd/chf the zone between 0.9020 and .9040 acts as an accumulation area - good for USD, not bad for UJ. I know that swissy and UJ are far for 100% correlation ( 85% hourly, 36% daily and 25.6% weekly) but what's good for the dollar, cannot be so bad for UJ.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,112
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:29pm Dec 3, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I also think there is good support in the 102.30 area, but I thought we needed something else to talk about too ;p
Yeah watching price all the time sometimes just gets old/is hurtful.

I think the pros do control the close. Much more noticeable in the stock market where you get gaps everyday.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,113
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:34pm Dec 3, 2013 8:34pm
Quoting seandean
This is nothing more than a healthy correction, probably even limited to intra-day action. It was due, and I warned about these markets moving in one direction to quickly. I don’t see this being a repeat of late May, however if it is, I hope you’re not one of those suckers buying pullbacks upwards of 100. If you’re not overly margined you shouldn’t be worrying too much, just yet.


It looks like all of this may have been caused by comments coming from the BOJ, specifically Takehiro Sato. The drop in the Nikkei has stopped, and USD/JPY seems to be grinding back up.
  • #40,114
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:12am Dec 4, 2013 1:12am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} It is the first time I've seen somebody consider a trendline valid after it has clearly broken, as you described. I will think about whether I am content with that.
well you might be new to this business then

lets assume a trendline (im talking about ones on higher time frames only) is acting as a strong support, once broken the same should act as a resistance. if you see this trendline keep getting broken out up and down then neglect it but if only broken twice in 5 months and still providing decent support/resistance, why not?
  • #40,115
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:15am Dec 4, 2013 1:15am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} i always like to back my analysis with a chart! now i take a trendline from 31st may low and you see how strong this trendline has been, it was broken twice, once to the down side and once to the upside. the ultimate retrace should be in the area circled in blue where that would be a bounce from the trendline and at the same time July high should act as a support as it was earlier a resistance. i personally took a long at 102.50 and planning to add 102 and 101.55, ofcourse if we get there. {image}
so far so good, PA is going as per my plan
  • #40,116
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:16am Dec 4, 2013 1:16am
Quoting zusch
This is why I always wait for daily close if I'm still in profit and my position hasn't been hit at breakeven. Daily candle was looking pretty bad, but having patience usually pays off. Massive 4hr pinbar that some traders here are talking about. I agree with Paulenok that this momentum should continue in Tokyo session. Here is my 4hr chart. Could be a huge day if this momentum follows through immediately. Don't want to see a stall here. {image}
I suppose you guys mean the NY close and the NY open when that talk is about daily close/open?

I am in Europe so I would actually have a different open and close time if I used London open/close.
  • #40,117
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:27am Dec 4, 2013 1:27am
we have bearish engulf on daily and close below resistance zones,just waiting one more conformation for sell signals or it is a bear trap
we need the break for further signals
  • #40,118
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:30am Dec 4, 2013 1:30am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I suppose you guys mean the NY close and the NY open when that talk is about daily close/open? I am in Europe so I would actually have a different open and close time if I used London open/close.
Yeah that is the daily close I use. I think it is good to use London open/close, both will present equal signals in the long run. Makes it confusing for us traders to communicate tho. :/

Looks like I took a bad exit earlier. Oh well glad to see the bulls take back control. Lots of important U.S. econ the next 3 days at 8:30 New York time (Wed. @ 8:15). /ES also spiking the last 1.5 hours -- 1790 holding well.

How do you guys feel about buying G/J instead of U/J? G/U looks bullish to me, but I can never seem to get that pair right though.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,119
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:38am Dec 4, 2013 1:38am
UJ tried to screw me out of my shorts but I took back what's mine Retracement was imininent end it happened. Next one will be deeper but could be postponed after higher high on yearly range. Good/better NFP nuber could inspire that bounce and respectively - deeper retracement for Euro, Pound, AUssie, Gold and others...
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  • #40,120
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:42am Dec 4, 2013 3:42am
Quoting zusch
This is why I always wait for daily close if I'm still in profit and my position hasn't been hit at breakeven. Daily candle was looking pretty bad, but having patience usually pays off. Massive 4hr pinbar that some traders here are talking about. I agree with Paulenok that this momentum should continue in Tokyo session. Here is my 4hr chart. Could be a huge day if this momentum follows through immediately. Don't want to see a stall here. {image}
The other point worth mentioning is that the tail on the 4hr candle pushed down to touch the 50mA.
Unfortunately I did not load new longs there because I was involved with my family......
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