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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,081
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:19pm Dec 3, 2013 1:19pm
DollarYen Develop Sell Signal,Lets see the daily close later
  • #40,082
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:20pm Dec 3, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I read something about BofA taking off a call butterfly on U/J. I'm not exactly sure what that means except that they expect volatility to increase. Maybe you can shed some light on what exactly they're doing. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/407875918405726210 I agree with everything you said...bulls should be cautious, bears should be cautious.


The fact is the long call butterfly profits if the market basically settles at a predetermined price level, it’s like saying at this date the market will be exactly (or very close) to this price.

My opinion says this was probably in and around the 100 price level, they probably saw the price explosion coming, as did many when we again made it above that number. The closure was to either lock in profits made on decay or to take off risk.
  • #40,083
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:23pm Dec 3, 2013 1:23pm
where does it have to close to mean what?
  • #40,084
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:26pm Dec 3, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} {quote} Waiting for a cheaper price for entering long. 101.90 and 101.30. GL for the longs at 102.30, it makes sense. Uj H1 {image}
I picked some up at 102.20. I don't really play 20 - 30 pip moves. This is probably something I'll hold for a while.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,085
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:30pm Dec 3, 2013 1:30pm
4,wed.
tokyo stock will fall to 15400~15300.
  • #40,086
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:34pm Dec 3, 2013 1:34pm
Bot the 102.06. Sold 102.28. That was quick.. this thing is all over the map today. Correlation with SPX makes me nervous.


Any key pull back levels you guys looking at? 101.60 on daily i see perhaps
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,087
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:30pm Dec 3, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting entheos
yesterday, i said usdjpy will downward. but all guys sneered.
okay what is tommorrow so we can sneer some more.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #40,088
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:41pm Dec 3, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I read something about BofA taking off a call butterfly on U/J. I'm not exactly sure what that means except that they expect volatility to increase. Maybe you can shed some light on what exactly they're doing. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/407875918405726210 I agree with everything you said...bulls should be cautious, bears should be cautious.
That information is not of much use to us. We don't even know if they were short the butterfly or long, what the strikes were, what the expiry was, what the breakeven was, whether the trade was underwater, or whether it was in profit.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #40,089
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:59pm Dec 3, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} my bad, it is from 13th June care to explain why is it unusual?
It is the first time I've seen somebody consider a trendline valid after it has clearly broken, as you described.
I will think about whether I am content with that.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,090
  • Dec 3, 2013 3:08pm Dec 3, 2013 3:08pm
Pin bars just off the supports formed on 1HR TF on major JPY crosses, this may play nicely during Tokyo
  • #40,091
  • Dec 3, 2013 3:17pm Dec 3, 2013 3:17pm
Looks like some unlucky fellows got filled in below 120.00(101.96 low) The big boys are going to send this thing up and sell it everybodys buy stop orders. Yes U/Y will probably go down later but Oh My the boys will surely have a filled day with retails money.
  • #40,092
  • Dec 3, 2013 3:23pm Dec 3, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I picked some up at 102.20. I don't really play 20 - 30 pip moves. This is probably something I'll hold for a while.
It's again above 102.30, so you could be right. But I'll not follow you on this. GL
Attached Image
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #40,093
  • Dec 3, 2013 3:38pm Dec 3, 2013 3:38pm
another long at 102.43. buy on deeps is the story until the up trend is broken.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,094
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:08pm Dec 3, 2013 4:08pm
This is why I always wait for daily close if I'm still in profit and my position hasn't been hit at breakeven. Daily candle was looking pretty bad, but having patience usually pays off. Massive 4hr pinbar that some traders here are talking about.

I agree with Paulenok that this momentum should continue in Tokyo session.

Here is my 4hr chart. Could be a huge day if this momentum follows through immediately. Don't want to see a stall here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.3.13 USDJPY 4hr.png Size: 33 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,095
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:10pm Dec 3, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} That information is not of much use to us. We don't even know if they were short the butterfly or long, what the strikes were, what the expiry was, what the breakeven was, whether the trade was underwater, or whether it was in profit.
True, and also shouldnt affect one's own method.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,096
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:46pm Dec 3, 2013 4:46pm
probably i´m wrong here because most of you reloading longs.
expect a retracement to the 101.60ish
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just do it
  • #40,097
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:48pm Dec 3, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting zusch
This is why I always wait for daily close if I'm still in profit and my position hasn't been hit at breakeven. Daily candle was looking pretty bad, but having patience usually pays off. Massive 4hr pinbar that some traders here are talking about. I agree with Paulenok that this momentum should continue in Tokyo session. Here is my 4hr chart. Could be a huge day if this momentum follows through immediately. Don't want to see a stall here. {image}
I agree witht 38.2 fib level. I anticipate a range forming between 102 and 103.3, and I will trade the bear if it breaks 102 firmly after having formed a range.
  • #40,098
  • Dec 3, 2013 5:40pm Dec 3, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting thodie
probably i´m wrong here because most of you reloading longs. expect a retracement to the 101.60ish {image}
We are two to be probably wrong...


Quoting maximinus
{quote} {quote} Waiting for a cheaper price for entering long. 101.90 and 101.30. GL for the longs at 102.30, it makes sense. Uj H1 {image}
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #40,099
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:31pm Dec 3, 2013 7:31pm
103.4x~101.9x
50% retrace.
nikkei fall.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xEbPk3cB/
  • #40,100
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:33pm Dec 3, 2013 7:33pm
nikkei downward to 15300.
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