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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,061
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:38am Dec 3, 2013 8:38am
guys we almost approached the years high, expect some bears there to defend it. I say within this week the years high will be taken and that will be MASSIVE considering the stop losses lying there.

beside it is pretty normal for a pair to retrace to gain further strength to break such a tough resistance.

trade safe
  • #40,062
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:48am Dec 3, 2013 8:48am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
guys we almost approached the years high, expect some bears there to defend it. I say within this week the years high will be taken and that will be MASSIVE considering the stop losses lying there. beside it is pretty normal for a pair to retrace to gain further strength to break such a tough resistance. trade safe
i always like to back my analysis with a chart!

now i take a trendline from 31st may low and you see how strong this trendline has been, it was broken twice, once to the down side and once to the upside. the ultimate retrace should be in the area circled in blue where that would be a bounce from the trendline and at the same time July high should act as a support as it was earlier a resistance.

i personally took a long at 102.50 and planning to add 102 and 101.55, ofcourse if we get there.
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  • #40,063
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:56am Dec 3, 2013 8:56am
Woke up to some red today. I'm still holding all my longs to see where daily candle closes. More of a warning sign currently than a signal to exit.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,064
  • Dec 3, 2013 9:01am Dec 3, 2013 9:01am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
... i always like to back my analysis with a chart! now i take a trendline from 31st may low and you see how strong this trendline has been...
That is a really interesting trendline.
Unusual too .....
Especially since 31st May is really 13th June......!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,065
  • Dec 3, 2013 9:50am Dec 3, 2013 9:50am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} That is a really interesting trendline. Unusual too ..... Especially since 31st May is really 13th June......!
my bad, it is from 13th June

care to explain why is it unusual?
  • #40,066
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:08am Dec 3, 2013 10:08am
There's a little resistance here, but I'll be adding some longs between 102.30 - 102.16.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,067
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:52am Dec 3, 2013 10:52am
Quoting Jgcole83
There's a little resistance here, but I'll be adding some longs between 102.30 - 102.16. {image}
+1
  • #40,068
  • Dec 3, 2013 10:57am Dec 3, 2013 10:57am
There is a large option barrier at 103.50 that’s set to expire on December 20, with a rumor that a large US bank is protecting it.

The way things were trading it looked like it was going to break last night, however the attempt at it and corresponding reversal may highlight its importance and how big it may just be.

At this point, if I was long and not heavily margined, I would be holding those for a re-test and possible break. I would not be looking to get into more, in case this pushes the market further JPY flat – from extreme short.
  • #40,069
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:07am Dec 3, 2013 11:07am
Quoting seandean
There is a large option barrier at 103.50 that’s set to expire on December 20, with a rumor that a large US bank is protecting it. The way things were trading it looked like it was going to break last night, however the attempt at it and corresponding reversal may highlight its importance and how big it may just be. At this point, if I was long and not heavily margined, I would be holding those for a re-test and possible break. I would not be looking to get into more, in case this pushes the market further JPY flat – from extreme short.
There are also some banks with some much higher targets.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/21664/u...-it-right-time
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,070
  • Edited 11:26am Dec 3, 2013 11:12am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting Jgcole83
There's a little resistance here, but I'll be adding some longs between 102.30 - 102.16. {image}
Quoting Beau168
{quote} +1
Waiting for a cheaper price for entering long. 101.90 and 101.30.

GL for the longs at 102.30, it makes sense.

Uj H1
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  • #40,071
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:21am Dec 3, 2013 11:21am
Quoting seandean
There is a large option barrier at 103.50 that’s set to expire on December 20, with a rumor that a large US bank is protecting it. The way things were trading it looked like it was going to break last night, however the attempt at it and corresponding reversal may highlight its importance and how big it may just be. At this point, if I was long and not heavily margined, I would be holding those for a re-test and possible break. I would not be looking to get into more, in case this pushes the market further JPY flat – from extreme short.
I read something about BofA taking off a call butterfly on U/J. I'm not exactly sure what that means except that they expect volatility to increase. Maybe you can shed some light on what exactly they're doing.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/407875918405726210

I agree with everything you said...bulls should be cautious, bears should be cautious.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,072
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:26pm Dec 3, 2013 12:26pm
I had a 20-30 profit taking streak and then came the end of Nov and this first week of Dec. I need a moment of silence....
  • #40,073
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:37pm Dec 3, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I read something about BofA taking off a call butterfly on U/J. I'm not exactly sure what that means except that they expect volatility to increase. Maybe you can shed some light on what exactly they're doing. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/407875918405726210 I agree with everything you said...bulls should be cautious, bears should be cautious.
I guess if someone is long long then they do not really need to worry as in the long run the YEN is in bear mode and due to weaken according to many nalysts out there. Since many Japanese are aging it seems quite possible for the YEN to see 110-120

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18241/g...s-respectively

Short term we are due for a reversal with options expiring this month and I reckon the DOW and Nikkei will see quite a correction before 12/12/13.
  • #40,074
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:39pm Dec 3, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting seandean
There is a large option barrier at 103.50 that’s set to expire on December 20, with a rumor that a large US bank is protecting it. The way things were trading it looked like it was going to break last night, however the attempt at it and corresponding reversal may highlight its importance and how big it may just be. At this point, if I was long and not heavily margined, I would be holding those for a re-test and possible break. I would not be looking to get into more, in case this pushes the market further JPY flat – from extreme short.
There were some large positions at 95 as well. Just trying to remember the name of those banks.
  • #40,075
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:45pm Dec 3, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I guess if someone is long long then they do not really need to worry as in the long run the YEN is in bear mode and due to weaken according to many nalysts out there. Since many Japanese are aging it seems quite possible for the YEN to see 110-120 http://www.efxnews.com/story/18241/g...s-respectively Short term we are due for a reversal with options expiring this month and I reckon the DOW and Nikkei will see quite a correction before 12/12/13.
Well I'm pretty deep in the money right now so I've got some cushion, but that's not really a great reason to just hold long.

Price just took out Monday's low so it is officially a bearish engulf. Still need to see where we close the daily candle before making any big decisions.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,076
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:51pm Dec 3, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Well I'm pretty deep in the money right now so I've got some cushion, but that's not really a great reason to just hold long. Price just took out Monday's low so it is officially a bearish engulf. Still need to see where we close the daily candle before making any big decisions.
still open from 103?
  • #40,077
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:57pm Dec 3, 2013 12:57pm
this would be crazy if it dropped down to 99-98 region.
  • #40,078
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm
yesterday,
i said usdjpy will downward.
but all guys sneered.
  • #40,079
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm Dec 3, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} still open from 103?
I've got a long just under 100 (should really have more under 100, but had a couple nasty sweepouts happen to me) and also just above 101.20. Haven't actually taken a trade yet this week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,080
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:16pm Dec 3, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting entheos
yesterday, i said usdjpy will downward. but all guys sneered.
This post right? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post7125666

So you made this call when U/J was trading at 102.50. We then traded up to 103.50 and now currently trading at 102. So you were wrong for 100 pips, and now right for 50 pips. Doesn't seem like much to brag about. :/
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
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