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Sonic R. System

  • #62,921
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:01pm Dec 2, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: This might be worthy of a stalking because the Dragon is now below the Trend on M15, reinforced by the down trend on H1. The market has been trading both sides of the whole number. An ideal situation would be for the more aggressive bear MMs to push the price up through the Dragon for a while and later start strong selling again, bringing the price back down through the Dragon and bringing us a better Classic short setup in a higher price area. The contrary view is this. There is still better than a day and a half before the NFP release, which...
AU, Confirming the Bear?

That previous high striking candle of notable volume looks suspiciously bearish. It is another clue, but we do not yet have a valid Classic short setup. So far, the Dragon remains below the Trend, which is the most stringent requirement for a short trade, and it is met. The angles are wrong, though. Let's see what the market gives us later.
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  • #62,922
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:14pm Dec 2, 2013 7:14pm
EU: Are the MMs Trying to Suck in Shorts Before the Right Time?

This is a setup, of sorts. I mean the Dragon is angled down, and is below the Trend which is angled down. And PA is below both. The fly in the ointment is that it is not the LS. There is plenty of time yet, before upcoming USD releases, for the MMs to work the price back higher. In fact, the MMs might be encouraging in shorts right now, and during the interim, just so they can SL them out with a whipsaw at the right time,.....what better way is there for the stinking MMs to get liquidity for their own short orders?

For the time being, I'd ignore this seemingly attractive bearish PA, and await the LS,.....at least until the next LS! The major USD releases are further off than that! This might be "missing the boat", but that is the chance one takes if one wishes to be conservative, and not bait for the MMs.
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  • #62,923
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:16pm Dec 2, 2013 7:16pm
Quoting loeil
{quote} EU - closed for 1122 pips gain {image}
Excellent run Loei!

About the Trade Management bit ...
Can you tell us your entry point and where you place your stop loss? Also, how did you manage this trade, moving to break even at which point and then to protect profits. Did you do a manual TP or planned TP etc?

Again, congratulations!
  • #62,924
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:26pm Dec 2, 2013 9:26pm
Quoting loeil
{quote} EU - closed for 1122 pips gain {image}
Quoting TaDa
{quote} Excellent run Loei! About the Trade Management bit ... Can you tell us your entry point and where you place your stop loss? Also, how did you manage this trade, moving to break even at which point and then to protect profits. Did you do a manual TP or planned TP etc? Again, congratulations!
"... Can you tell us your entry point and...." -

....and goes on to ask for lots of information when apparently too disinterested to study the chart! Which entry point of the 25 listed are you inquiring about?
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  • #62,925
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:38pm Dec 2, 2013 9:38pm
AU Short Trade:

Entered pre-LS Classic short. RBA high impact release is out now. Dragon with angle and below Trend, also with angle, and PA below both.
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  • #62,926
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:50pm Dec 2, 2013 9:50pm
Quoting traderathome
AU Short Trade: Entered pre-LS Classic short. RBA high impact release is out now. Dragon with angle and below Trend, also with angle, and PA below both. {image}
I don't like the waves, specially this size, in the middle of a sideway market like this. It's better to see a short setup at the top of the range and vice versa. Trade has small room to move.

Just my opinion though ..

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,927
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:59pm Dec 2, 2013 9:59pm
Hi

Anyone trading full time using this system? Based on what I see, this system generates sufficient trades to do on a full time? Please correct me if I am wrong.

I am looking for a system that is suitable for a full time trader. Appreciate your kind advice/recommendations.
  • #62,928
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:10pm Dec 2, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting Basber
{quote} I don't like the waves, specially this size, in the middle of a sideway market like this. It's better to see a short setup at the top of the range and vice versa. Trade has small room to move. Just my opinion though .. Regards, Basber {image}
Reasoned well, Basber.

My thinking was based on the higher TF trend down. This is indeed in a range, between a height of 85+ to 110+ pips, depending on how you look at it. In any case, and based on the lower TL of H4 depicted PA, price could break thru the bottom of the range and drop down to the lower whole number area, or to around RWL, which would be about a 100% drop from the range,....again, depending on how you measure the range. This is in a nice down trend, so the probability of a range break low is not unreasoned. The possibility exists that this has been ranging for the purpose of distribution, the MMs building their short positions for another good leg down.
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  • #62,929
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:19pm Dec 2, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} "... Can you tell us your entry point and...." - ....and goes on to ask for lots of information when apparently too disinterested to study the chart! Which entry point of the 25 listed are you inquiring about? {image}
Thanks TAH, I see it now. Did not know it is 25 different entries
When he took the first entry, it is at about 1.36189 ... dragon was flat then ... Was that an early scout?
I wasnt able to tell the MMs are bear prior to the 1st scout ...

TAH, Thanks in advance for responding ..., helps in our learning process.
  • #62,930
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:19pm Dec 2, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Reasoned well, Basber. My thinking was based on the higher TF trend down. This is indeed in a range, between a height of 85+ to 110+ pips, depending on how you look at it. In any case, and based on the lower TL of H4 depicted PA, price could break thru the bottom of the range and drop down to the lower whole number area, or to around RWL, which would be about a 100% drop from the range,....again, depending on how you measure the range. This is in a nice down trend, so the probability of a range break low is not unreasoned. The possibility...
I don't like it in the higher TF either I think I'm a lot more selective than you Maybe it's just about the personal taste ..
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,931
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:45pm Dec 2, 2013 10:45pm
Quoting twp1980
Hi Anyone trading full time using this system? Based on what I see, this system generates sufficient trades to do on a full time? Please correct me if I am wrong. I am looking for a system that is suitable for a full time trader. Appreciate your kind advice/recommendations.
Usually traders think they are "trading" when they are "in" in market. After all these years, I found "waiting" the most difficult concept in trading. Waiting for a perfect setup to shown up. We have an enormous eager to trade. But in the long run, I saw only those win who acted like a sniper, not a shotgun.

If you're willing to trade full time, you can have multiple strategies. You must have at least 2 years experiencing different ways. Don't shift to real account too soon. wait for at least 6 consecutive winning months on demo account. right down your methods, your rules. make a trading journal and take picture from your trades. treat each method individually.

Now to your question .. Yes, it's a good method than you can rely on, IF you master it. Read the most you can in this thread, from the beginning. post your trades after you understand the method well so senior traders here can help you.

I don't know how many trades per week will satisfy you, but it can give your from 2 to 10 trades per week, depending on restriction rules you have and how much picky you are. It's usually refers to how much people can tolerate in the waiting game

Last but not least, try to read good books. Most of them are available online.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,932
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:58pm Dec 2, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting Basber
{quote} I don't like it in the higher TF either I think I'm a lot more selective than you Maybe it's just about the personal taste .. {image}
Basber, you might not think this has downside potential based on your DAY chart, but my DAY chart sports a beautiful H&S. And it is in play. This is something that could easily happen between now and sometime next week, if not by the end of this week.
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  • #62,933
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:03pm Dec 2, 2013 11:03pm
NU Short Trade:

Entered pre-LS Classic as Dragon with down angle crosses Trend, now also with down angle, and with PA below both.
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  • #62,934
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:05pm Dec 2, 2013 11:05pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} You might not think this has downside potential based on your DAY chart, but my DAY chart sports a beautiful H&S. And it is in play. {image}
The validity of H&S also relies on how price reacted before it. For example double bottom should be formed at the bottom of the chart so it will work the best. The H&S you referring to should form at the top of the chart. In other words, there should be a strong upward move before the H&S, but it's not that good compared to the size of H&S itself .. (lovely double bottom before that though ..)

I hope you don't see it in a wrong way my dear friend. I'm not against you, but I like this kind of discussion among traders. I believe it's constructive for both parties and also the readers.

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,935
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:06pm Dec 2, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting traderathome
NU Short Trade: Entered pre-LS Classic as Dragon with down angle crosses Trend, now also with down angle, and with PA below both. {image}
lovely
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,936
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:09pm Dec 2, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting Basber
{quote} The validity of H&S also relies on how price reacted before it. For example double bottom should be formed at the bottom of the chart so it will work the best. The H&S you referring to should form at the top of the chart. In other words, there should be a strong upward move before the H&S, but it's not that good compared to the size of H&S itself .. (lovely double bottom before that though ..) I hope you don't see it in a wrong way my dear friend. I'm not against you, but I like this kind of discussion among traders. I believe it's constructive...
Basber, take another look at it. You say the rise up to the H&S formation was not so great. Ok, now put your FR study on it. You see that the total rise is a very respectable 50%+ of the previous run down.

However, my trade is not based on these things. They might or might not support the M15 setup, but the M15 setup and the general trend of H1 is what I look at. There can be a lot of slip between cup and lip, excellent appearances failing to deliver and not-so-good appearances becoming better than cash on the barrel! Time will tell.
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  • #62,937
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:28pm Dec 2, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Basber, take another look at it. You say the rise up to the H&S formation was not so great. Ok, now put your FR study on it. You see that the total rise is a very respectable 50%+ of the previous run down. {image}
Yes, and it's done it's job .. price bounced off of 50% level., which provided good support for short entries late Oct.

Funny thing is if you posted a chart and you were biased long, I would've said the exact things you're saying to support your short position. My point is there is too many mixed signals. And the point I am trying to make is to staying away from market when these mixed signals appears. Our mind usually ignores opposite signals because we are pre-biased about the market. I'd read in a book that "if you see a short opportunity, try to turn your monitor upside down (stupid of course !) and then analyze again. If you see a long setup, then it's good to enter." of course it was a metaphor, but I believe you know what I'm talking about.

And also NU presented a nice short setup (I'm with you on that) that don't have the disadvantages of the AU trade which I discussed. And they usually move the same. So why not taking just NU ?

I don't care about the outcome of this particular trade, but what I'm expressing here will apply in long term trading. I rather to have high winning percentage instead of large number of trades. I'm sure both are tempting and I really believe both way works. It's all about math.

Traders that lasted more than 4-5 years usually came to this conclusion that there is no right or wrong, it's about what works for you and what's not. That's why everyone should personalize any system they want to trade. Because trading methods and more importantly money management side of any system, should suit your personality.

Just my 2 cents though ..

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #62,938
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:42pm Dec 2, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
M&M in a making? Sonic {image}
Didnt turn out to be M...

Ranging at m1 tf 169 for now.. see red box..

See if go bak to 168.9x lvl or goin up..


Sonic
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  • #62,939
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:58pm Dec 2, 2013 11:58pm
GU long , by vol reason

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  • #62,940
  • Dec 3, 2013 12:15am Dec 3, 2013 12:15am
Quoting Basber
{quote} Yes, and it's done it's job .. price bounced off of 50% level., which provided good support for short entries late Oct. Funny thing is if you posted a chart and you were biased long, I would've said the exact things you're saying to support your short position. My point is there is too many mixed signals. And the point I am trying to make is to staying away from market when these mixed signals appears. Our mind usually ignores opposite signals because we are pre-biased about the market. I'd read in a book that "if you see a short opportunity,...
You say that price retracing to the 50% level has "..done it's job...", and that the bounce back down from that level provided good support for shorts. Yes, that was a good place to short (presuming something more in the way of a setup occurred, and not just the 50% retrace), but when is "...it's job..." truly done? No one can say. We can not ever know these things. For all we know the price will drop to at least the 0.8850 area to form a double bottom. If that happens, there is all the likelihood the price will go that further bit to complete the H&S formation. We cannot know, ever know when "...it's job..." is done! Not ever!

But, as I said, the H&S formation is not the reason for my AU trade. All my stringent requirements were met, excepting that the setup occurred before the LS, and there were met sufficiently well that taking the trade prior to the LS was reasonable. For a short, I weight the Dragon angled down and below a Trend also angled down, together with a decent PA wave representing a break down and away from a whole number as very good setup, no matter where in a "range" it occurs. Ranges are made to be broken out of, when the MMs are ready to do it. And a setup like this is just the ticket to do the job. A guarantee? Of course not, but a definite edge.
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