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  • #859,021
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:03pm Dec 2, 2013 2:03pm
On daily on break of blue line we get 200 ema test(blue arrow) which was great buy support. On break of green line we get another test of 200 ema (green arrow). Another great buy support Now we have possible red line and if we break that then i am looking for another test of 200 ema.

On 4 hr on break of black line we made that low at that possible red support line. Now we made break of second black support line on 4 hr. So looking for that red one, and theare will see what next( new buy or will let this untill 200 ema on daily or maybe even 3200-40 area
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  • #859,022
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:41pm Dec 2, 2013 2:41pm
what happen to beginner joe?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #859,023
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:45pm Dec 2, 2013 2:45pm
1.353x seems to be holding atm - a daily rejection would prolly wake the bulls up again.. but wtf do I know...

gl trading
Patience is a virtue...
  • #859,024
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:55pm Dec 2, 2013 2:55pm
1.3480ish remain a target for the bear...and if we trade below that level, we probabli going to 1.33 again or lower 1.3220 1.3100ish...

depends on ECB rate decision and Non Farm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #859,025
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:28pm Dec 2, 2013 3:28pm
Here is a kind of a thing on the Australian dollar from 2013 BOA monetary policy meetings:

5 February 2013
On the other hand, the exchange rate remains higher than might have been expected, given the observed decline in export prices, and the demand for credit is low, as some households and firms continue to seek lower debt levels.

5 March 2013
( Previous statement repeated)

2 April 2013
( Previous statement repeated)

7 May 2013
The exchange rate, on the other hand, has been little changed at a historically high level over the past 18 months, which is unusual given the decline in export prices and interest rates during that time. Moreover, the demand for credit remains, at this point, relatively subdued.

4 June 2013
The exchange rate has depreciated since the previous Board meeting, although, as the Board has noted for some time, it remains high considering the decline in export prices that has taken place over the past year and a half.

2 July 2013
The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.

6 August 2013

( Previous statement repeated)

3 September 2013
The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.


1 October 2013
The Australian dollar rose recently, but is still about 10 per cent below its level in April. A lower level of the currency than seen at present would assist in rebalancing growth in the economy.


5 November 2013
The Australian dollar, while below its level earlier in the year, is still uncomfortably high. A lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.


Now, the interesting part in this statement was the price action behavior after using the underline words. In May 7, Aussie was trading at 1.02 after the " which is unusual " comment, in one month a 700 pips plunge. Then, in July when a 10% decline its still at a high level - the price plunge more. Also in November, the use of " uncomfortably high " plunged the price 400 pips give or take. There is a funny fact about this meetings, every time the bank statement uses a new negative word associated with high & exchange rate - the price plunge .. the other thing is: This people must be pretty much angry by now, they have been talking it down for almost a year and little has been achieved. Makes me really wonder: When are you planning to intervene in the fx markets ? Like when you ran out of eccentric expression?!





"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #859,026
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:33pm Dec 2, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Have question IF YOU HAD THE HOLY GRAIL WILL YOU STILL BE HERE
yes, to show off sometimes.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,027
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:39pm Dec 2, 2013 3:39pm
which one is going to be better short?
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,028
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:52pm Dec 2, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting ziyaze
closed my short from 1.35858
I closed my eyes from 1.35858 and fell to sleep.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,029
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:03pm Dec 2, 2013 4:03pm
I am in:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post7127150
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #859,030
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:06pm Dec 2, 2013 4:06pm
So I've talked here a few times lately about D1 momentum and how we're pretty much trading according to that recently. It is now looking like momentum belongs to the bears. Eu is still all over the place so regardless it still has to be considered a gamble in a way to be short right now. But I think it is the higher probability trade, rather than being long.

Good luck.
  • #859,031
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:12pm Dec 2, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting Ck87
So I've talked here a few times lately about D1 momentum and how we're pretty much trading according to that recently. It is now looking like momentum belongs to the bears. Eu is still all over the place so regardless it still has to be considered a gamble in a way to be short right now. But I think it is the higher probability trade, rather than being long. Good luck.
We need a pullback upwards to anywhere between 1.3560 and 1.3577 before heading to 1.3480/90
At least that's how I see it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #859,032
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:13pm Dec 2, 2013 4:13pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} We need a pullback upwards to anywhere between 1.3560 and 1.3577 before heading to 1.3480/90 At least that's how I see it.

Wouldn't argue that, I feel a bit stupid for not TP because it pretty much has to come back up a bit toward 1.3570 area. Well, it doesn't HAVE TO, just seems rather likely. But I'm letting it ride and if I see a compelling set up on H1/H4 below my initial entry I will add to position.
  • #859,033
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:14pm Dec 2, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Ck87
So I've talked here a few times lately about D1 momentum and how we're pretty much trading according to that recently. It is now looking like momentum belongs to the bears. Eu is still all over the place so regardless it still has to be considered a gamble in a way to be short right now. But I think it is the higher probability trade, rather than being long. Good luck.
could be... but i'm not shorting. I don't think it's a done deal.
  • #859,034
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:17pm Dec 2, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting milam
I am in: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post7127150
A nice inverted hammer. Very high probability to visit the current month pivot, a place for subsequent potential bounce up to R1. R1 is a place to load shorts again.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,035
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:21pm Dec 2, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Wouldn't argue that, I feel a bit stupid for not TP because it pretty much has to come back up a bit toward 1.3570 area. Well, it doesn't HAVE TO, just seems rather likely. But I'm letting it ride and if I see a compelling set up on H1/H4 below my initial entry I will add to position.
Keep in mind that from a purely technical perspective, 1.3480/90 is a very heavy demand zone in weekly and lower, and in confluence with trend line/channel support on H4 and lower. Therefore I would expect a significant technical bounce from there at minimum.

From a macro perspective, if Draghi delivers a negative deposit rate (which I doubt) or some other dovish policy, and/or if the NFP number comes out mush better than expectation 200K ++, then 1.3480/90 should behave like wet toilet paper, especially if it has already been tested before the news.

If both the ECB and the NFP disappoint the bears, then I think we see 1.4x before year end.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #859,036
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:24pm Dec 2, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} A nice inverted hammer. Very high probability to visit the current month pivot, a place for subsequent potential bounce up to R1. R1 is a place to load shorts again. {image}
Yes, keep in mind that we are against the latest momentum trend, one has to be very nimble in booking partial profits to other...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #859,037
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:31pm Dec 2, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes, keep in mind that we are against the latest momentum trend, one has to be very nimble in booking partial profits to other...
Yup, the current month pivot is the place to reduce short size and load it back later around R1.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,038
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:33pm Dec 2, 2013 4:33pm
Keep an eye on spx, gold, and us note for a clue about the dollar strength.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #859,039
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:40pm Dec 2, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Yup, the current month pivot is the place to reduce short size and load it back later around R1.
The good for bears lay on the fact in my view that many bulls got trapped by the upwards BO and they need to cover….

Also one need to be aware that many stops sit above the high and the market may want to go there to make some bucks….
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #859,040
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:46pm Dec 2, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I closed my eyes from 1.35858 and fell to sleep.
and by that you mean?
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