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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,021
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:01pm Dec 2, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting kweiss10
missed this trading day man
Did you hold longs?

4hr close above 103. Still one more 4hr candle to go in my daily candle. Really think we could see 103.48 in the next 4 hours. All timeframes green.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,022
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:10pm Dec 2, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Did you hold longs? 4hr close above 103. Still one more 4hr candle to go in my daily candle. Really think we could see 103.48 in the next 4 hours. All timeframes green.
I didn't get in at all. I was suspicious of the movement. Didn't expect it to rise from 102.2x to this point. Some wierd stuff going on here.
  • #40,023
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:12pm Dec 2, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting bikov
demographics matters: {image} {image}
I was in Japan this summer. Went to Tokyo,Osaka and Kyoto. You definitely can see the older population in Japan. Seems like there are by far more older people than younger people. Japan is one of my favorite countries in Asia. It is one of the most developed and advanced countries on earth.
  • #40,024
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:14pm Dec 2, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I didn't get in at all. I was suspicious of the movement. Didn't expect it to rise from 102.2x to this point. Some wierd stuff going on here.
I did not either and lost $3K on that move.
  • #40,025
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:17pm Dec 2, 2013 12:17pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I did not either and lost $3K on that move.
how did you lose money if you didn't get in or do you mean you could of made 3k?
  • #40,026
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:23pm Dec 2, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I didn't get in at all. I was suspicious of the movement. Didn't expect it to rise from 102.2x to this point. Some wierd stuff going on here.
Oh I thought I remembered you being long from last week.

Still lots of time left this week and this month to get some long positions in.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,027
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:26pm Dec 2, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} how did you lose money if you didn't get in or do you mean you could of made 3k?
I went short expecting a pullback but instead my account got a $3K pullback.
  • #40,028
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:30pm Dec 2, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I went short expecting a pullback but instead my account got a $3K pullback.
Hope that doesn't set you back too much. What was your entry and TP?
  • #40,029
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:30pm Dec 2, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Oh I thought I remembered you being long from last week. Still lots of time left this week and this month to get some long positions in.
I dont usually keep positions open too long. Can't sleep well hehehehe
  • #40,030
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:42pm Dec 2, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I was in Japan this summer. Went to Tokyo,Osaka and Kyoto. You definitely can see the older population in Japan. Seems like there are by far more older people than younger people. Japan is one of my favorite countries in Asia. It is one of the most developed and advanced countries on earth.

I've never been there, two of my friends were and told me the same thing, it's different planet. I have deep respect for their culture, but not so much about their currency right now. If this (currency war) was football, I'd say that Japan played "catanagio" strategy for too long, you cannot win the world cup with that (except if you are Italy ) So, they must play(and already playing) with 3 strikers now and pull out some defenders from the field. Yeah, it's risky but it's the only way to win a football match when you have a negative result. Yes they have scored, but not enough to win the game.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,031
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:46pm Dec 2, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I dont usually keep positions open too long. Can't sleep well hehehehe
I'm the opposite. I can't sleep if I don't have a position in a strong trend like U/J. Nothing sweeter than sleeping and making money at the same time.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,032
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:49pm Dec 2, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} Hope that doesn't set you back too much. What was your entry and TP?
I had gotten in around 102.65 and squeezed out at around 102.75-76. Was looking for around 102 but that did not work out too well. Was a bad gamble betting against the FED and BOJ. After resistance it spiked up again instead of retreating. Most resistance levels have been taken out now including the 103 mark so from here now it could easily go to 105 unless the government intervenes and brings it back down which I doubt as Japan needs a weaker currency to boost exports and their local economy. They also want to lure in Chinese tourists with a weaker currency.
  • #40,033
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:51pm Dec 2, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} I've never been there, two of my friends were and told me the same thing, it's different planet. I have deep respect for their culture, but not so much about their currency right now. If this (currency war) was football, I'd say that Japan played "catanagio" strategy for too long, you cannot win the world cup with that (except if you are Italy ) So, they must play(and already playing) with 3 strikers now and pull out some defenders from the field. Yeah, it's risky but it's the only way to win a football match when you have a negative result....
If you have not visited then you really must visit. I love Japan and live their food. Not cheap though or for cheap people. If you live food and hand have an eye for detail then you will love Japan. Prepare to spend and enjoy. The rich in Japan have one of the best qualities of life on earth if you ask me.
  • #40,034
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:25pm Dec 2, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I had gotten in around 102.65 and squeezed out at around 102.75-76. Was looking for around 102 but that did not work out too well. Was a bad gamble betting against the FED and BOJ. After resistance it spiked up again instead of retreating. Most resistance levels have been taken out now including the 103 mark so from here now it could easily go to 105 unless the government intervenes and brings it back down which I doubt as Japan needs a weaker currency to boost exports and their local economy. They also want to lure in Chinese tourists with...
You lost $3k on 10 pips?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #40,035
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:31pm Dec 2, 2013 3:31pm
some yen vol info -

Implieds are higher across the board as the market readies for a busy week data/event week and delivery remains consistent despite the holidays last week. Bear in mind that there are some date issues in the front end of the curves because of holidays etc (JPY crosses are 27Dec with others now 2Jan). This and the JPY weakness have kept JPy and the crosses firmer across the board. Term structure is modestly flatter depending on the pair (with JPY crosses much flatter due to calendar). RRs continue to see Yen calls bought up with crosses going higher for JPY calls too meanwhile a few of the EUR puts are firmer but not so much EURUSD

USDJPY implieds are higher across the board today as higher spot and a lot of event risk pending seem to be helping keep end users in demand and dealers short too 1m is marked +0.4 at 9.55 recall that it traded up at 9.75 last Monday and was lower all of last week (despite higher spot). The tenor has had problems holding 10.0 (it traded there abt 3 wks ago) and never rebounded. Meanwhile the cycle low is at 8.25 where it traded in October right after the shutdown was concluded. 3m is 10.05 up 0.2 on the day after trading 9.95 earlier and bid on. 1yr is 11.15 unch on the session in very light trading. RRs turned positive for downsides across the curve last week and the demand for downside remains a feature. 1m 25d RR is 0.25 favor Yen Calls which is up 0.1vols recall we traded up at 0.4 YP last Friday morning. 1yr 25d is 0.8 YC which is 0.075vols higher for downside

Yen crosses are firmer as well. 1m EURJPY is 9.65 which is up 0.2vols after decent sized mid Dec 140s were paid interbank. Longer dates are higher too 3m is 10.25 up 0.2vols and the 1yr is unchish at 11.85. RRs saw downsides bid but it was tempered by the aforementioned topside demand. 1m 25d is 0.525 up 0.075 recall it was traded 0.35EP this time last week. 1y is marked at 2.0 off 0.05vols. 1m AUDJPY is marked 10.95 which is more or less where we had it on Friday night but longer dates are a touch higher 3m is 11.55 up 0.05vols. 1yr is marked 12.9 up 0.05vols - recall that the tenor got paid at 13.075 in Asia last Monday so still some rebound to be had. RRs better bid for downside 1m 25d RR is 1.125 up 0.05 for AP and the 1yr is 4.1 AP up 0.05vols as well after the 3m was paid 2.0 for AP
  • #40,036
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:50pm Dec 2, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You lost $3k on 10 pips?
Yes, basically so. 10 pips can be a lot if you buy a lot. Next time I will buy less.
  • #40,037
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:54pm Dec 2, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Yes, basically so. 10 pips can be a lot if you buy a lot. Next time I will buy less.
Why do that at this point? Why don't you do yourself a favor and trade the trend....Fundamentals and price action on all time frames all line up...

I know what you're doing because I used to do short term scalping but the risk involved is to great. Trade a range when there's a range and trade the trend when there's a trend otherwise you risk getting your head ripped off.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,038
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:25pm Dec 2, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Yes, basically so. 10 pips can be a lot if you buy a lot. Next time I will buy less.


Do you mind sharing your account size, or if not that, what was your trade margined as?

I’m not a spot broker expert, but to lose $3,000 in the futures market on a 10 point move you would need to play with approximately 24 futures contracts – that’s just over $100,000 in margin from any respectable futures broker.

If your account is in excess of that size you’re trading the wrong stuff dude. If not, you’re margining beyond belief and you won’t last past next year.
  • #40,039
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:31pm Dec 2, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} Do you mind sharing your account size, or if not that, what was your trade margined as? I’m not a spot broker expert, but to lose $3,000 in the futures market on a 10 point move you would need to play with approximately 24 futures contracts – that’s just over $100,000 in margin from any respectable futures broker. If your account is in excess of that size you’re trading the wrong stuff dude. If not, you’re margining beyond belief and you won’t last past next year.
He'd have to be trading 30 lots and depending on the broker you can get 50:1 - 300:1. Which makes him either really stupid or really smart.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,040
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:52pm Dec 2, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} He'd have to be trading 30 lots and depending on the broker you can get 50:1 - 300:1. Which makes him either really stupid or really smart.
I can use up to 200:1
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