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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,161
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:23am Dec 2, 2013 7:23am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} I told you how a good intraday piker may had shorted the micro charts on the news triggered break.. again, stops & profit taking targets are based on the individual's risk temperament & TA knowledge.. you can tell me your target & how long you'll hold today's trade based on you fundie knowledge.. {quote} You had just answer yourself on TA & charts reflecting the ultimate truth for the market..
Yes I can certainly tell you targets based on fundie knowledge. I did very well with that for many years. It was Draghi's "Whatever it takes" declaration that I messed up due to my underestimation of it's impact. QE3 was the icing on the cake. September No Taper was the cherry on top. So, it's not that fundies don't work for me, but rather that my lack of having experienced such market dynamics in the past exposed my achilles heel. I assure you it will not be repeated. Lesson learned. Just glad it didn't cost me thousands of dollars to learn it.

Yes the ultimate truth is always price, but price is not a leading indicator. Market expectations of the underlying macroeconomic conditions is the closest we get to that, and they change every day/week/month/year. Tech are great for entries, short term exits and short term projections only.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,162
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:00am Dec 2, 2013 8:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Now, in full defence of your arguments about TA, yes, if I wasn't such an idiot and blinded by my bias at the time (No bias now, I assure you), I would have been long at 1.2750 and scaled in on every dip.
Bloody twenty, twenty hindsight. Never around when you need it...
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,163
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:08am Dec 2, 2013 8:08am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} Bloody twenty, twenty hindsight. Never around when you need it...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,164
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:10am Dec 2, 2013 8:10am
I did manage to get in short today with a little bit and added to it on the way down. Now running a free trade...

Price seems to be stuck between the 233 and 510 MA on the 1 hr chart. I know MA's don't matter as such but price does seem to stick at those level;s on most time frames. Looking to stay short to 3470/80 where I have a support and rising trend line in that area. Failing that I will be out for a teeny profit and wait for a better short.

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Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,165
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:29am Dec 2, 2013 8:29am
Quoting NZ Chris
I did manage to get in short today with a little bit and added to it on the way down. Now running a free trade... Price seems to be stuck between the 233 and 510 MA on the 1 hr chart. I know MA's don't matter as such but price does seem to stick at those level;s on most time frames. Looking to stay short to 3470/80 where I have a support and rising trend line in that area. Failing that I will be out for a teeny profit and wait for a better short. {image}
Excellent. Good catch. Don't forget to take half.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,166
  • Edited 9:02am Dec 2, 2013 8:46am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes the ultimate truth is always price, but price is not a leading indicator. Market expectations of the underlying macroeconomic conditions is the closest we get to that, and they change every day/week/month/year. Tech are great for entries, short term exits and short term projections only.
Yup. Btw, GU doing well, I ve missed initial move in EU, but dont care in fact, averaged just a bit above where we are now 1,3546 SL varies from 1,35935 - 1,368, GU 1,6392, SL 1,645. Like a disgrace .

edit: heh, wonder when I loose that floating. Sik moves as usuall, lucky I dont do intraday . Having fun here.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,167
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:51am Dec 2, 2013 8:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes I can certainly tell you targets based on fundie knowledge. I did very well with that for many years. It was Draghi's "Whatever it takes" declaration that I messed up due to my underestimation of it's impact. QE3 was the icing on the cake. September No Taper was the cherry on top. So, it's not that fundies don't work for me, but rather that my lack of having experienced such market dynamics in the past exposed my achilles heel. I assure you it will not be repeated. Lesson learned. Just glad it didn't cost me thousands of dollars to learn...

aight..
congrats on your new found market truth.. I am sure you'll be fine going forward with your new attitude as survival & playing in this cesspool is a very lonely contest with our inner demon..

It really doesn't matter if price is not a leading indicator since charts reflect the ultimate truth unless you're trying to position yourself ahead of market expectations based on the underlying macroeconomic conditions..
  • #71,168
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:14am Dec 2, 2013 9:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Excellent. Good catch. Don't forget to take half.
1/2 nicely in the bag thks. I didn't forget.

Can't as yet shake my short bias, trying, trying, trying though....
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,169
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:29am Dec 2, 2013 10:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yup. Btw, GU doing well, I ve missed initial move in EU, but dont care in fact, averaged just a bit above where we are now 1,3546 SL varies from 1,35935 - 1,368, GU 1,6392, SL 1,645. Like a disgrace . edit: heh, wonder when I loose that floating. Sik moves as usuall, lucky I dont do intraday . Having fun here.
Hey Tom.

For the best RR on E/U shorts I would look for a retest of 1.3577/80 resistance.

On G/U, same resistance test/pullback to 6390/6400 area.

After that, it's down for a while.

For Euro, key support come in around 1.3480/90 and for G/U is comes in around 6315/30 area. If we break those, the bulls get weak, but not out of the game yet. Loads of support levels below here and one of them could produce another rip roaring rally.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,170
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:33am Dec 2, 2013 10:33am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} 1/2 nicely in the bag thks. I didn't forget. Can't as yet shake my short bias, trying, trying, trying though....
Not that it's a given coz alot is riding on what Draghi does, but if we get another boost of confidence in the Euro and a disappointment on the taper, we're going to see 1.4x in the Euro. So keep that in your mind and it should help alleviate your short bias a bit. Of course ultimately we're heading down to parity area... Okay maybe about 1.15, but that's pretty close to parity
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,171
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:38am Dec 2, 2013 10:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
For the best RR on E/U shorts I would look for a retest of 1.3577/80 resistance.
Well I got the same number as ideal, and expect we can get there. Dont mind a bit of scubadiving and actually have martingale offer at 1,35775 .
Regarding GBP, it is low leverage, and SL quite far. I actually dont care bout that G/U trade, I just dont like Carney and it is a beertrade with superb RR. Yeh, am disgrace, I know.

Still, we can get that 1,367 retested, that chop is fast, but move down first in my books.
edit: I mean1,367
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,172
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:46am Dec 2, 2013 11:46am
Hi all

Well is the usd strengthening.....or what!

Can anyone pass on details for a site where i can compare /overlay dxy and t10 us bond rates?
i have tried bloomberg, however it will not rebase the chart to a usable level!

Also is it a fair analysis as a trigger to usd strength, or should i be looking elsewhere?


thanks in advance.
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #71,173
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:58am Dec 2, 2013 11:58am
Quoting afos
Hi all Well is the usd strengthening.....or what! Can anyone pass on details for a site where i can compare /overlay dxy and t10 us bond rates? i have tried bloomberg, however it will not rebase the chart to a usable level! Also is it a fair analysis as a trigger to usd strength, or should i be looking elsewhere? thanks in advance.


There are several multiples more money in the short term and money market spaces, that is what usually drives FX rates in the main pairs. I would look at 2 year yields in the the G4 countries. Carry trades in CAD, AUD, NZD and EM are driven by short term carry trades, invested in overnight yields most of the time. You can see all of these yields here:

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...vernment-bonds

For example if you look at the recent rally in GBPUSD, 2 year UK yields have held steady around 50 bps while US 2 year yields have been declining. This causes more money to gravitate toward UK 2 Years. The US yields usually anchor the entire global developed market rates curve, but UK economic outperformance is keeping their yields elevated while European deflation threats keep the core European countries rates very low.

Not sure if you can chart that automatically using that site but I am sure someone else in the thread knows a way.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,174
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:23pm Dec 2, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting afos
Hi all Well is the usd strengthening.....or what! Can anyone pass on details for a site where i can compare /overlay dxy and t10 us bond rates? i have tried bloomberg, however it will not rebase the chart to a usable level! Also is it a fair analysis as a trigger to usd strength, or should i be looking elsewhere? thanks in advance.
JeremyWS has a reuters terminal. He may be able to help.

I have quoted his last post (43 hours ago) below so he will be notified and see your request.

Quoting JeremyWS
A visual representation. {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,175
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:24pm Dec 2, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} There are several multiples more money in the short term and money market spaces, that is what usually drives FX rates in the main pairs. I would look at 2 year yields in the the G4 countries. Carry trades in CAD, AUD, NZD and EM are driven by short term carry trades, invested in overnight yields most of the time. You can see all of these yields here: http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...vernment-bonds For example if you look at the recent rally in GBPUSD, 2 year UK yields have held steady around 50 bps while US 2 year...
Yes that's an excellent source but they don't do overlays as far as I have seen.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,176
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:33pm Dec 2, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Not that it's a given coz alot is riding on what Draghi does, but if we get another boost of confidence in the Euro and a disappointment on the taper, we're going to see 1.4x in the Euro. So keep that in your mind and it should help alleviate your short bias a bit. Of course ultimately we're heading down to parity area... Okay maybe about 1.15, but that's pretty close to parity

But last month when the fed disappointed on taper we saw the dollar strengthening.
  • #71,177
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:41pm Dec 2, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} But last month when the fed disappointed on taper we saw the dollar strengthening.
The market was not expecting a taper last month. What happened is that the Fed statement was less dovish and showed signs (also supported by public comments made after the meeting) that the Fed may still taper in December. So now there is a small expectation for a December taper. Only a small one but it may be building due to the recent positive data from the US. Also if we get a very good NFP number, that taper expectation is going to rise... setting us up once again for a potential taper disappointment like in September, only not as drastic... Once bitten twice shy and therefore the USD bulls will remain cautious.

So let this prepare you for the December Fed meeting. A december taper, even if data is screaming for it, will probably not be fully priced in... Maybe 50/50. So no matter what the result, we WILL get some good action. The only question is "Which way?"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,178
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:34pm Dec 2, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The market was not expecting a taper last month. What happened is that the Fed statement was less dovish and showed signs (also supported by public comments made after the meeting) that the Fed may still taper in December. So now there is a small expectation for a December taper. Only a small one but it may be building due to the recent positive data from the US. Also if we get a very good NFP number, that taper expectation is going to rise... setting us up once again for a potential taper disappointment like in September, only not as drastic......

Clarified Bro,ya in sync with the real issues and also keeping pulse with the chartz,ya simply into it!!!
  • #71,179
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:44pm Dec 2, 2013 1:44pm
Albeit, it does seem to me the fed will rather consider a sequential improvement in data over a few months(consecutively) not intermittently I guess,as a precursor for a taper.
  • #71,180
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:05pm Dec 2, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting Hotkqash
Albeit, it does seem to me the fed will rather consider a sequential improvement in data over a few months(consecutively) not intermittently I guess,as a precursor for a taper.
The data has been mostly good. They have admitted that. They just wanted (as they explained) to make sure it was sustainable. So far it is looking sustainable. Friday's NFP will shed more light on the situation. The leading indicators to the NFP have been the great employment components in the PMI numbers, Wednesday's ADP employment numbers and Thursday's (and prior weeks) jobless claims numbers... so if Wednesday and Thursday numbers look as positive as the previous numbers, expect a front run to a good NFP.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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