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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,141
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:49am Dec 2, 2013 1:49am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote}Net net, new data introduced to the market was EUR negative because spain is slowing
Good point. Thanks for that little nugget.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,142
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:52am Dec 2, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} What site is this data from bro? Just wondering because the FF calendar doesnt usually have that much data... especially from non G10.
forexpros dot com
  • #71,143
  • Edited 2:11am Dec 2, 2013 1:57am | Edited 2:11am
Hm, what a fast start of Monday, thought I can have a lunch . Nevermind. You guys are watching GU? Went little short although I dont watch technicals there, as am long term bearish on GBP. Their CB eases for quite some time already, still overshooting inflation targets and main reason it is up here is ECB cut. Imo not bad to trade a few with low leverage, as it is mid term trade.

Waiting for EU to retrace to 1,3579 to load some, SL 1,368, TP 1,338. Dont mind entering here, but would prefere better RR than 1,3, which is now.

Hope you guys are having fun .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,144
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:58am Dec 2, 2013 1:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Euro has nothing to do with this move. This is USD bullish resurgence. Even Cable with fantastic PMI is having a hard time staying up And Aussie is starting to melt again.
2:30PM CET is Ben talking So maybe market is thinking again about possibility of taper info and this caused USD strength rebirth? Im totally lost, I thought I finally know something and again I’m lost…
  • #71,145
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:48am Dec 2, 2013 2:48am
Quoting Vtmn
ive been waiting for gold to go higher all this week now, gonna take a small risk and short it now
closed my shorts, took a long position @1236.5, gonna add if we go lower


awesome start to the week.. so far
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #71,146
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:57am Dec 2, 2013 2:57am
Quoting milam
Good Day I am reading this, I hope someone will find it usefull. {image}

Thanks my friend - downloaded
  • #71,147
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:58am Dec 2, 2013 2:58am
Quoting mario83
{quote} 2:30PM CET is Ben talking So maybe market is thinking again about possibility of taper info and this caused USD strength rebirth? Im totally lost, I thought I finally know something and again I’m lost…


No short cut to learning how it all works. For some traders the whole 'technicals' and chart patterns substitues for genuine cause and effect market knowledge. While chart reading skills are useful, understanding what drives FX and the rest of the markets is a true skill that will serve you well in knowing how large and when to position.

I would recommend spending time reading the Financial times and wsj stories daily, track economic trends in the respective economies you want to trade and take a few minutes to watch the markets around key data releases. Note reactions. Takes a few years of seeing the trends and ups and downs to really get it. Least you have great guys on FF like piptrapper to help.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,148
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:58am Dec 2, 2013 2:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
E/U key support is 1.3486 area. That is where the bull/bear battle will take place IMO. If the bears win that one, then the next stops are 1.3400, 1.3295 and 1.3088
Can not agree more - wanted to say that the whole morning but get distracted
  • #71,149
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:00am Dec 2, 2013 3:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Euro has nothing to do with this move. This is USD bullish resurgence. Even Cable with fantastic PMI is having a hard time staying up And Aussie is starting to melt again.

As we have seen so oft in the past - nearly all fundamental data are priced in beforehand

Look at how manipulated all markets are now - I think we would be naive to think, that this data does not leak beforehand to the biggies
  • #71,150
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:00am Dec 2, 2013 3:00am
Heres an FT from last week I have pinned to my wall.


France in Fed taper line of fire
By Ralph Atkins


French bonds could sell off sharply if US yields rise
When France’s weak economy and public finances are panned by international critics, its politicians have an easy riposte: just look at our bond yields.
Paris can borrow at lower costs than London, and the spread between French over German 10-year bonds has remained remarkably stable over the past year. Standard & Poor’s early morning announcement two weeks ago of another downgrade – this time to double A – failed to cause markets to choke on their croissants. Investing in French assets cannot be so awful.


Could that change as the US Federal Reserve starts to wind back its exceptional stimulus measures? Among investors I have spoken to recently, a school of thought is developing that it might.
During the global “taper turmoil” earlier this year – the weeks after May 22, when Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, first hinted at his plans to taper, or scale back Fed asset purchases – eurozone bond markets remained surprisingly tranquil, even as emerging markets sold off sharply.
But while global policy makers and economists still struggle to understand the interlinkages between Fed actions and global markets, it seems implausible that Europe can escape unscathed when tapering becomes real, perhaps as early as December. After all, “global QE” – quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan as well as the Fed – drove European bond prices higher and yields lower; taper turmoil showed the potential for disruption when it goes into reverse.
Stabilising factors
If there will be European fallout, where will the effects be worst? Intuitively, the weaker eurozone “periphery” economies seem most at risk of a market correction as global QE ebbs, especially if fresh taper turmoil increases investors’ risk aversion.
In fact, countries such as Spain, Italy and Ireland have benefited from four stabilising factors this year.
First has been their transition – thanks to the European Central Bank acting as a backstop – from existential crises to something nearer normal economic conditions. Growth is low and unemployment alarmingly high, but the danger of imminent ejection from the euro has gone.
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Second, at least Irish and Spanish bonds have benefited as turnround stories, with tangible evidence of structural reforms improving competitiveness and growth prospects.
Third has been the “re-domestication” of Spanish and Italian bond markets – fickle foreign investors have fled.
Fourth, eurozone periphery countries have moved decisively from current account deficits to surpluses; they no longer rely on capital from overseas.
All four supporting factors will remain in place even as the Fed tapers. None, however, apply to France. Instead other reasons explain the impressive performance of France’s bond market this year – and why it might now be vulnerable.
Higher bond yields
When the Fed was ramping up its asset purchases and US Treasury yields were falling, global investors looking for higher returns were attracted by France’s large and liquid bond markets. Until June this year, French 10-year yields were higher than US equivalents.
France was considered part of the eurozone’s safe, northern core, which made it attractive to investors for whom German Bund yields were simply too low. The Swiss central bank was an avid buyer of French bonds, as were Japanese banks.
Whatever the risks posed by Fed tapering, it is hard right now to see what might trigger another big sell off
The case against France is that if the Fed slows its asset purchases and US Treasury yields rise, those inflows could start to reverse and French bonds would sell off – perhaps sharply.
Eric Chaney, chief economist at Axa, points out the very different debt profile between France and Germany. As a share of GDP, French public sector debt will soon be 20 percentage points higher than Germany’s. Without action to alter France’s debt dynamics, the spread between French and German bonds could widen by 50 or 100 basis points, warns Mr Chaney.
French politicians probably need not worry just yet. Investors shorting French bonds have often lost their berets.
When French yields have hit instability in the past, it has been because of obvious systemic risks – the exposure of its banks to the eurozone “periphery” economies in 2011, for example. Whatever the risks posed by Fed tapering, it is hard right now to see what might trigger another big sell off. As the eurozone crisis has lost intensity, eurozone bonds have performed more like “rates” markets, with yields linked to growth and inflation prospects, rather than default risks. France’s economy is contracting, which will curb any uptick in yields.
Still, as Fed tapering draws near, markets may make life less comfortable for French politicians – and limit their bond yield bragging possibilities.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,151
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:03am Dec 2, 2013 3:03am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Hey man also remember Germany and France both have flash versions of their data that are reported weeks earlier than these final prints you saw today. The effect is that the Spanish and Italian prints are 'new', (there is no flash print) and the German and French data is 'final' meaning that the flash print was a week or so ago. Nov 21 i think Net net, new data introduced to the market was EUR negative because spain is slowing

Thanks for sorting that out
  • #71,152
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:12am Dec 2, 2013 3:12am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thanks my friend - downloaded
Anytime…amico.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #71,153
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:14am Dec 2, 2013 3:14am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Can not agree more - wanted to say that the whole morning but get distracted

Hi

I agree with you too. I am also waiting for a bounce at EJ 138.85 if EU 1.348+ is held
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU120213-01.jpg Size: 118 KB
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #71,154
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:33am Dec 2, 2013 4:33am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} No short cut to learning how it all works. For some traders the whole 'technicals' and chart patterns substitues for genuine cause and effect market knowledge. While chart reading skills are useful, understanding what drives FX and the rest of the markets is a true skill that will serve you well in knowing how large and when to position. ...
Since charts reflect the ultimate truth for the market, perhaps you can ask our friend PT again on "how understanding what drives the FX market" can help an FA trader to withstand those 10+ figure diverge M/T moves for Euro & Cable since July..
BTW, nice Euro scalp.. IMO any intraday TA trader thats worth their salt would had sold Euro on the news triggered break of 1.3690 & add on break of 1.3580 trading the micro charts with position size dependent on their risk temperament regardless of TA or FA knowledge..
  • #71,155
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:42am Dec 2, 2013 4:42am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Since charts reflect the ultimate truth for the market, perhaps you can ask our friend PT again on "how understanding what drives the FX market" can help an FA trader to withstand those 10+ figure diverge M/T moves for Euro & Cable since July.. BTW, nice Euro scalp.. IMO any intraday TA trader thats worth their salt would had sold Euro on the news triggered break of 1.3690 & add on break...


Agreed with everything you just said, however the question there is how do you know how to position and how long to hold? If you shorted at 1.3690 and you had no clue of what drove price, why wouldnt you have just closed out at the nearest decent support level. Technicals are just important as fundies, I think the fundies allows you to "know" that yes while price has moved in my favor a bit, the factors driving this move are 1,3,6 month trends that will likely take price in the same direction for a very long time. This is what allows PT to be wrong for an entire year, still make money and then bank a huge amount of gains when the story finally lines up with the price action.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,156
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:46am Dec 2, 2013 4:46am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Since charts reflect the ultimate truth for the market, perhaps you can ask our friend PT again on "how understanding what drives the FX market" can help an FA trader to withstand those 10+ figure diverge M/T moves for Euro & Cable since July.. BTW, nice Euro scalp.. IMO any intraday TA trader thats worth their salt would had sold Euro on the news triggered break of 1.3690 & add on break...
Yeah you are 100% correct about how the underlying fundies have failed me CdnDollar. No doubt there at all.
However, you cannot dismiss their significance in market direction during normal times... these times are anything but normal. With the CBs doing crazy shit to try and smooth out the boom/bust cycle so that their sore arses (balance sheets) aren't exposed for what they really are is the cause of the divergence from the truth of the markets.

In essence, this is also fundamental. So, it's not that the markets have not been moved by fundies, but rather that the CBs have screwed with the natural macro cycle and I didn't catch on until it was too late to properly position myself in the market. Where bond market manipulation is concerned, I was a noob. Only been trading since 2003 and only really caught on to fundies in 2007 just before the crash. I have no formal education in financial markets... only a good knack for concepts, pattern and numbers (Electronics Engineer by education and trade)

Now, in full defence of your arguments about TA, yes, if I wasn't such an idiot and blinded by my bias at the time (No bias now, I assure you), I would have been long at 1.2750 and scaled in on every dip.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,157
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:55am Dec 2, 2013 4:55am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} This is what allows PT to be wrong for an entire year, still make money and then bank a huge amount of gains when the story finally lines up with the price action.
That's the plan, Stan
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,158
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:00am Dec 2, 2013 5:00am
Fed unlikely to redraw markers for rate hike
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9B001Q20131201

Last month, two highly publicized Fed research papers suggested that lowering the unemployment rate threshold could give the economy additional thrust, fueling a surge of speculation that such a plan was in the offing. Bernanke, after all, had earlier suggested it was a possibility.

But Fed officials appear to be leaning against such a move and have already moved back to the tried-and-true approach of letting a few well-chosen phrases guide market expectations.


Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting show only two officials backed a lower unemployment threshold -- and one of them has since tamped down the idea. Meanwhile, remarks from Bernanke and Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen suggest they have abandoned the notion.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,159
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:14am Dec 2, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Agreed with everything you just said, however the question there is how do you know how to position and how long to hold? If you shorted at 1.3690 and you had no clue of what drove price, why wouldnt you have just closed out at the nearest decent support level. Technicals are just important as fundies, I think the fundies allows you to "know" that yes while price has moved in my favor a bit, the factors driving this move are 1,3,6 month trends that will likely take price in the same direction for a very long time. This is what allows PT...
I told you how a good intraday piker may had shorted the micro charts on the news triggered break.. again, stops & profit taking targets are based on the individual's risk temperament & TA knowledge.. you can tell me your target & how long you'll hold today's trade based on you fundie knowledge..

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ... Now, in full defence of your arguments about TA, yes, if I wasn't such an idiot and blinded by my bias at the time (No bias now, I assure you), I would have been long at 1.2750 and scaled in on every dip.
You had just answer yourself on TA & charts reflecting the ultimate truth for the market..
  • #71,160
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:17am Dec 2, 2013 5:17am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} I told you how a good intraday piker may had shorted the micro charts on the new triggered break.. again, stops & profit taking targets are based on the individual's risk temperament & TA knowledge.. you can tell me your target & how long you'll hold today's trade based on you fundie knowledge.. {quote} You had just answer yourself on TA & charts reflecting the ultimate truth for the market..
charts reflecting the ultimate truth for the market ---------- > Yeap
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