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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,101
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:30pm Nov 30, 2013 4:30pm
Anyone thinks the current euro and cable up run is related to the Japanese stock market? The euro and cable up run happened mostly in asian and european sessions, and it appeared that they were pushed up by yen. So this appeared that yen was converted to euro and pound. who did the conversion? do people perceive a sharp drop of the japanese stock market (it appears toppy right now) so people sold the japanese stocks and converted yen into euro and pound? yen was also converted to the us dollar, but not as much as euro and pound.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #71,102
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:31pm Nov 30, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I think you'd be quite frustrated as well if you were in my shoes of waiting on a park bench for the picnic to start. Bears get hungry you know. Basically I've been counter trend trading for more than half the time in the last year. I'm still in profit and probably would not have made much more trading with the trend, but it certainly would have been much less frustrating... Much much less. Anyway. This will go on... {image} Until this stops {image}
Yes, the market is always right despite our views.. any serious trader hoping to survive & take money out of the market over time will eventually learn to accept the market & the prevailing HTF trends..
You have good tools.. IMO you'll do fine going forward..
  • #71,103
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:23pm Nov 30, 2013 5:23pm
Well Alien just learned something new about humans and trading tonight !

Tonight was my 10,000 human abduction, and 5th year of trading forex markets for Alien.

I have found out why 95% of all humans lose trading forex.

When a human's life is in disarray and confusion, like 1000's of years ago when humans did not understand,
volcano's, earth quakes, thunder and lighting and such.

They came up with all these gods to pray to, to help them make sense of the world they lived in. ( I am not saying there may not be a God).

I have found out that when humans get frustrated or confused, as in trading the Forex Markets, They simply start seeing things that are not there, and make things up to trade, just to help calm the human mind down, before a meltdown happens to themselves...............

So it is very difficult to trade the forex markets when the human mind wants to see something that is not there, because it can not make sense of the markets at that time.

Please don't over trade and sit on your hands for 20 minutes, and think about what you are about to do for those 20 minutes without making a trade.

To not be able to change a human mind is a terrible thing..............Alien..............
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #71,104
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:39am Dec 1, 2013 7:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
I look forward to your numbers mate
Am counting whole day, gimme few more hours, I took it a bit largescale . Actually dont know how the heck I fit those numbers here.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,105
  • Dec 1, 2013 9:57am Dec 1, 2013 9:57am
Well I hope I have managed to make post understoodable. Get prepared for HMJ (heavy mumbo jumbo) .

I have now focused on speed and relative strength of correction from 1,38 peak. Data counted are Swiss FX marketplace Daily bid Closes, examined time since 1999, searching for simmilar types of shocks. Parameters set for recognition of waves are min 30% retracement and 400 pips.

Our correction from 27.10.2013 - 1,38045 down to 10.11.2013 - 1,33464 was 458 pips and 44,6% strength, was only 12 days long and current uptrend already deleted 53% of the move in 20 days, which is fast as well. Now though timing of cycles is imo almost impossible, it is unusuall to have a such fast correction, and thats why I focused on that speed thing.

Since 1999, we had five such corrections and apart from 2008, where we had a major crash, all were followed by some kind of retest of peak (low) and two of them resulted in breaking it in the end.

Generally saying if we were peaking here and going down, we may get a chop like 1,34 - 1,38 before break, if we were in bear already, 1,367 zone should stop the move for now, and if we were in bull, there will be no chop and we are gonna ride up to 1,42. Now if we were looking what was happening pre peak, we had a 167% strong trend, and if looking at those five corrections, numbers 1,2 and 3 were after major trends with strenght @ 350%, no 4 was 183% and no5 was correction of correction, which I dont find simmilar. From this perspective, we would be in no 4 - therefore summer 2009, but here, move was stopped at 37% fibo jumbo to resume into full bull and given the fact ECB ratecut gave us a clean cut of this number as we headed down to 44,6%, I dont consider no 4 valid as well.

Which leaves us with numbers 1,2 and 3, which were all after major trends. Since I dont find economic conditions any simmilar to 2008, I would say no3 is not valid as well, which leaves us just with two last simmilar corrections . Both resulted in retest of peak, while the first one broke it in the end to finish whole cycle and the second one was 2008 peak. Now this may really be the case in case there comes taper @ March 2014 - chopzone retesting peak, to crash later.

Now I am known for saying we are gonna get QE cubed and am not sure they will be able to withdraw stimulus. This beeing said, I think, from the perspective of jumbo, this move is attempt to make a new peak and market is reaching its limits, so thats why those moves are so fast. So I will go with option No1 - go for a peak 1,38 retest, crash low to retest fibo jumbo @ 1,32 (wave 4) and then run to final high @ 1,42 (wave 5). I will start loading shorts from 1,367 zone and switching to longs once we get below 1,344, if US data confirms there will be no taper. If it will, I will just hold em.

Cya later,

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,106
  • Dec 1, 2013 10:21am Dec 1, 2013 10:21am
Amazing stuff there Tom, useful insight. Seems like the board idea is that everyone wants to sell higher... that makes me wonder if price will actually go. Given the daily chart set up, and numerous folks I have spoke to... including my brokers strategist they harp ont he 1.3625 level. The way price behaved last week in 1.361X lets on that someone was sitting on the market with a wall of offers at 1.362x. Every time price blipped into that area it failed.


Aside from that, the recent price action reminds me of the movement before the summer 2012 breakdown, I attached the 4hr charts side by side. Same sides ways wedge consolidation and H&S on daily. Right before a large move lower driven by the French and Greek elections.
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  • #71,107
  • Dec 1, 2013 10:27am Dec 1, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well I hope I have managed to make post understoodable. Get prepared for HMJ (heavy mumbo jumbo) . I have now focused on speed and relative strength of correction from 1,38 peak. Data counted are Swiss FX marketplace Daily bid Closes, examined time since 1999, searching for simmilar types of shocks. Parameters set for recognition of waves are min 30% retracement and 400 pips. Our correction from 27.10.2013 - 1,38045 down to 10.11.2013 - 1,33464 was 458 pips and 44,6% strength, was only 12 days long and current uptrend already deleted 53% of the...
Tom, that was fantastic as usual
One more consideration to add to the neverending list of reasons why the Euro is so messed up.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,108
  • Dec 1, 2013 10:34am Dec 1, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Citiboy
Amazing stuff there Tom, useful insight. Seems like the board idea is that everyone wants to sell higher... that makes me wonder if price will actually go. Given the daily chart set up, and numerous folks I have spoke to... including my brokers strategist they harp ont he 1.3625 level. The way price behaved last week in 1.361X lets on that someone was sitting on the market with a wall of offers at 1.362x. Every time price blipped into that area it failed. Aside from that, the recent price action reminds me of the movement before the summer 2012...
Yep. Very similar indeed.
Remember though that Draghi had not yet made is "...Whatever it takes..." speech and the EZ sov bond market was taking a s**t kicking with Spanish and Italian benchmark yields in the 8% neighborhood.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,109
  • Dec 1, 2013 11:13am Dec 1, 2013 11:13am
whats up with that "red card" next to my name
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #71,110
  • Dec 1, 2013 11:20am Dec 1, 2013 11:20am
Quoting Vtmn
whats up with that "red card" next to my name
Gidday Vtmn

The red mark means the beer fridge is empty

an I guess its your turn to fill it up
  • #71,111
  • Dec 1, 2013 11:28am Dec 1, 2013 11:28am
Quoting Vtmn
whats up with that "red card" next to my name
eliteincome is probably correct... Your turn to fill up the fridge

Actually, the vouching system has finally been abolished... Good riddance. It's been abused for far too long now.
Instead your rating is based on the number of subscribers you have and maybe a couple of other parameters yet to be explained by FF admin.

Basically red cards are the highest ranked posters. Followed by orange cards, yellow cards and no cards.
If you hover your mouse over the red card, it will tell you where you rank. In your case it is the top 2% of all FF members.

In my case it is the top 1%
Even better than that, I'm in the top 10.

To see where you rank, go here >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/members.php
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,112
  • Dec 1, 2013 11:50am Dec 1, 2013 11:50am
Here's a quick H1 chart technical overview of where we stand with the Euro

Broken below rising trend line on Friday and managed to close the day below open price, but not below Thursday's open or low.
Strong MacD Bearish divergence
Slight MacD Bullish hidden divergence (Suggesting one more up before drop)

Price found support at the previously broken 1.3579 resistance and looks like we should get a bounce from there.

Since the trend line is quite steep, another retest (we already had one on Friday) would require another new high in the 1.3645/55 area which would also complete the ab=cd pattern upward correction which started at the 1.3295 low.

Such a new high and pattern completion would mean it is time for a leg down towards support at 1.3486

Alternatively, if 1.3579 support does not hold, then we head straight to 1.3486 without making a new high.

So to recap...
- key supports levels are at 1.3579 and 1.3486.
- Key resistance level is at 1.3645/55 area (confirmed by historical resistance and virgin supply zone)

E/U H1
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E/U Daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,113
  • Dec 1, 2013 12:30pm Dec 1, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} . Basically red cards are the highest ranked posters. Followed by orange cards, yellow cards and no cards. If you hover your mouse over the red card, it will tell you where you rank. In your case it is the top 2% of all FF members. In my case it is the top 1% Even better than that, I'm in the top 10. To see where you rank, go here >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/members.php
Oh Dear, I'm so low on the ranking system I got bored clicking on the 'More' button....
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,114
  • Dec 1, 2013 1:14pm Dec 1, 2013 1:14pm
The Latest Threat To The Risk Currency Rally
http://www.fxempire.com/news/special...urrency-rally/

China and Iran
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,115
  • Dec 1, 2013 1:45pm Dec 1, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here's a quick H1 chart technical overview of where we stand with the Euro Broken below rising trend line on Friday and managed to close the day below open price, but not below Thursday's open or low. Strong MacD Bearish divergence Slight MacD Bullish hidden divergence (Suggesting one more up before drop) Price found support at the previously broken 1.3579 resistance and looks like we should get a bounce from there. Since the trend line is quite steep, another retest (we already had one on Friday) would require another new high in the 1.3645/55...

when I add these(your analysis) to the fact that the euroz rise cannot be substantiated; rate cut and all the unwrapping ECBz dovish stance,it resultz in a good case for a short @ or underneath 1.3700. 1.3667 reached @ December 2004 sent the euro down by 2000pips,in February 2013 that R zone (1.3710) pushed the euro back for some 1000pips,now we are close to that somewhat restricted zone again,pls tell me,will it be worth a swing trade or will the end of year squaring of positions and low liquidity throw in the spanners?
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  • #71,116
  • Dec 1, 2013 2:53pm Dec 1, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} when I add these(your analysis) to the fact that the euroz rise cannot be substantiated; rate cut and all the unwrapping ECBz dovish stance,it resultz in a good case for a short @ or underneath 1.3700. 1.3667 reached @ December 2004 sent the euro down by 2000pips,in February 2013 that R zone (1.3710) pushed the euro back for some 1000pips,now we are close to that somewhat restricted zone again,pls tell me,will it be worth a swing trade or will the end of year squaring of positions and low liquidity throw in the spanners? {image}

It all rests on two elements now.

1. ECB Policy
2. Fed Taper and any change in forward guidance.

Re: ECB Policy... Their choices are almost endless. I don't think that a deflation threat is worrying the ECB at this time... or at least they are not mentioning it. Rather some of the gov council members are almost screaming that it is not an issue. However, there are two major issues that I see and they have received very little attention from any ECB jawboners. 1. The M3 money supply is shrinking fast and this is not growth supportive. 2. Lending is way down and since economies can only grow with credit growth, it should be an issue. Therefore, I think the next move will be liquidity related and more than likely be some form of "Funds for lending" scheme similar to the one implemented by the BOE. The major problem I see with a FLS program is the high probability that it will cause the Euro to rally as it will be seen as supportive for the EZ economy that supposedly is already showing early signs of growth... at least according to PMIs anyway. So, for me it's not very easy to forecast. More like a coin toss at this point. I must stress that an FLS program will address both the M3 supply shrinkage and the private lending issue all in one swoop... provided there is actually a takeup for it. If the ECB offers up such a program and the banks don't go for it, then there's going to be trouble for the Euro, and I mean huge trouble. Anyway, be prepared for a sharp rise in the Euro if the program is offered. Of course, after a sharp rise, we always get a nice fall. The fall could come for strictly technical reasons or perhaps it will come after it is realized that there is little bank interest in such a program. The likelihood of a lack of interest in such a program is significant because the biggest reason for the lower private lending number has more to do with less demand by borrowers than by less supply by lenders. Anyway, we shall see.

Re: Fed policy... This one is much easier. It is totally data dependent and we can certainly get some good clues on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week. On Wednesday we get the ADP private NFP. On Thursday we get the Jobless claims and on Friday we get the more key data... the NFP and unemployment rate. I think these 3 news items are going to be key to what is decided at the December Fed meeting. I doubt they will taper in December, but all the market needs is further hints that it is coming combined with a less dovish statement than last time, and that will definitely be USD bullish, even if the ECB offers up an FLS program.

So there you have it... My 2 cents worth

Regarding End of Year flows, typically end of year is risk supportive as fund managers window dress their portfolios. Normally there is massive profit taking before year end when there are upcoming capital tax rate changes to the upside being implemented in January, but in this case there are no such changes in the works.

Also, according to a fund manager survey I heard about on CNBC, the majority of respondents do not expect the Fed to even consider tapering until Washington gets past the budget and debt ceiling issues in January and February. They may be right about that, but I've seen the Fed catch the market by surprise too many times to trust in such surveys.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,117
  • Dec 1, 2013 3:33pm Dec 1, 2013 3:33pm
MIRS replaces vouching
http://blog.forexfactory.com/?p=2805
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,118
  • Dec 1, 2013 3:38pm Dec 1, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting Vtmn
Of course i have to cover my partying expenses

still holding, hoping for a spike lower

fingers crossed
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #71,119
  • Dec 1, 2013 3:40pm Dec 1, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It all rests on two elements now. 1. ECB Policy 2. Fed Taper and any change in forward guidance. Re: ECB Policy... Their choices are almost endless. I don't think that a deflation threat is worrying the ECB at this time... or at least they are not mentioning it. Rather some of the gov council members are almost screaming that it is not an issue. However, there are two major issues that I see and they have received very little attention from any ECB jawboners. 1. The M3 money supply is shrinking fast and this is not growth supportive. 2....

No wonder you rank in the top 1% and have innumerable subscribers.I really do appreciate your fundamental depth and the energy you put into sharing your wisdom-Gracias!!!
  • #71,120
  • Dec 1, 2013 4:54pm Dec 1, 2013 4:54pm
Macro Considerations
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/12/...derations.html

...if there is a surprise, it would most likely come from the ECB. Since Draghi has taken the helm, he has surprised the market more than once by his aggressiveness in easing policy (recall the rate cuts at the first two meeting he chaired, OMT, and even the latest rate cut). However, the early estimate showing an uptick in inflation, we suspect the ECB wants to consider more its next step, which could include bringing the repo rate to zero, which might also have the benefit of slowing the LTRO borrowings, where the rate is tied to the repo rate...

...The ECB staff will provide 2015 forecasts for the first time and will like cut the 2014 inflation forecast, which currently stands at 1.3%. The larger the cut, the greater the expectation for a stronger policy response. ...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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