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  • #71,081
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:44pm Nov 30, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting britc17
I don't think NFP will have it's usual affect, as I believe Draghi on Thursday is going to really shake things up. The only way I see NFP shaking things up would be huge upside numbers. Would not be surprised to see 1.3250 by the end of the week, but what do I know ? I am short and not adding unless we hit 1.3700. I will scale into more shorts on the way down if we start to head south. We shall see.

Its a good plan.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #71,082
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:45pm Nov 30, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting Davit
Fundamentally to me Euro is overvalued and I see 1.33 and lower. I am short from 3605 2x
Okay... Let's get one thing on the table here. Fundamentally the Euro belongs at parity with the USD... or probably even lower. However it has been that way for a long time and all I see out of this pair is more Euro bullish sentiment. So, unless Draghi brings out a big bazooka and gives the banks negative deposit rates, or some other fundamental crap scares the heck out of the market, it looks like we're in for much of the same.

They say that when the patient/stubborn bears start to become skeptical, that the market turns around and starts heading south. Well I'm skeptical, so do we see a turnaround now?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,083
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:51pm Nov 30, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} considering this is the most important NFP in the last 5 year, I somewhat disagree. This NFP basically decides if we have tapering in December, or March. Which then decides the steepness of the tightening cycle. We saw the Aug print at 169k which put of the Sep Taper, and now we need to see strong Nov NFP (and revisions) to see a Dec Taper. Going to be a highly watched number, draghi may not be as important as he's unlikely to do anything the month after a rate cut.

The markets are pricing in NO TAPER until March, as we've seen broad USD weakness against the majors, so I don't believe there's anything NFP can do to change that, however the ECB has been very vocal about wanting their currency lower. I believe they have been giving us hint after hint that they are about to take serious action to do such. Maybe this is just rhetoric, but I think they will act.

Either way. I see the Euro/USD heading south or staying steady. I simply see no fundamental reason for us to be higher. I think the only reason we are at 1.3600 is because of the market sentiment of no taper until March.

I just don't see this NFP changing much. I could be very wrong.
  • #71,084
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:52pm Nov 30, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay... Let's get one thing on the table here. Fundamentally the Euro belongs at parity with the USD... or probably even lower. However it has been that way for a long time and all I see out of this pair is more Euro bullish sentiment. So, unless Draghi brings out a big bazooka and gives the banks negative deposit rates, or some other fundamental crap scares the heck out of the market, it looks like we're in for much of the same. They say that when the patient/stubborn bears start to become skeptical, that the market turns around and starts...

Euro gains have been on Sterling wings.Pound is the key which ironically relates to yen recent serious drops.Once Yen stabilizes a little we could see overall corrections.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #71,085
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:53pm Nov 30, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting britc17
{quote} The markets are pricing in NO TAPER until March, as we've seen broad USD weakness against the majors, so I don't believe there's anything NFP can do to change that, however the ECB has been very vocal about wanting their currency lower. I believe they have been giving us hint after hint that they are about to take serious action to do such. Maybe this is just rhetoric, but I think they will act. Either way. I see the Euro/USD heading south or staying steady. I simply see no fundamental reason for us to be higher. I think the only...
Depends on which markets we consider.

But a 250K+ NFP will change things, you can guarantee that. The next 6 months will be mainly run by the USD aspect as opposed to the EUR side.
  • #71,086
  • Nov 30, 2013 2:01pm Nov 30, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Depends on which markets we consider. But a 250K+ NFP will change things, you can guarantee that. The next 6 months will be mainly run by the USD aspect as opposed to the EUR side.
I agree with that, and I am certainly only speculating, but more specifically I see this being a very strong week for the USD regardless of NFP and I think Thursday or sooner will get the party started.
  • #71,087
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:12pm Nov 30, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting britc17
{quote} I agree with that, and I am certainly only speculating, but more specifically I see this being a very strong week for the USD regardless of NFP and I think Thursday or sooner will get the party started.
in terms of the Vol markets - Spot week - 1 month spread has moved up 2.8 vol points and inverted to a 1.4 vol point level

this compares to about a 3 vol point move in week prior to Fed Sep FOMC meeting and a 2.3 vol point move prior to the ECB meeting 3 weeks ago.
  • #71,088
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:43pm Nov 30, 2013 4:43pm
If anyone is looking to tighten their fundamentals game, WSJ is having a cyber monday sale. $1 for 3 months access.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,089
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:47pm Nov 30, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} in terms of the Vol markets - Spot week - 1 month spread has moved up 2.8 vol points and inverted to a 1.4 vol point level this compares to about a 3 vol point move in week prior to Fed Sep FOMC meeting and a 2.3 vol point move prior to the ECB meeting 3 weeks ago.


I see the following as of Friday:

Levels EURUSD 1.3610 spot
o/n 5.5
1w 8.75
1m (31Dec) 6.85
3m 7.15
6m 7.5
1y 8.0





Interesting that the curve is that inverted. Overall vol remains pretty low.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,090
  • Nov 30, 2013 4:52pm Nov 30, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I see the following as of Friday: Levels EURUSD 1.3610 spot o/n 5.5 1w 8.75 1m (31Dec) 6.85 3m 7.15 6m 7.5 1y 8.0 Interesting that the curve is that inverted. Overall vol remains pretty low.
look at ATM 1w vol, if you consider that now we are within a week of the news, its not surprising to see the spike in sw vols

n.b. 1w = spot week
  • #71,091
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:07pm Nov 30, 2013 5:07pm
A visual representation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR atm vols.png Size: 90 KB
  • #71,092
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:28pm Nov 30, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Well I'm skeptical, so do we see a turnaround now?
Mate, second stage of correction was just due to that neg rateceut speech, which was denied. Allover, we didnt ever breach 61,8% fibo, when looking to corrrection of move down from 1,38. Though it is above 50%, I dont like that, but was a heavy market shock during bull run, so correction can be big. Am gonna count some numbers and post it tomorrow, but still think we are peaking right now.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,093
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:54pm Nov 30, 2013 5:54pm

just went shrt eu at .3615 ...must be my lucky....10 minutes....hope it lasts longer though .....hv BS/TP on the way down...1st at..77...then ..68...then 49...and 1.35..rest monitored (by Hand)....no jerking pls....tk cr tp


this is going to be an interesting monday/week..none of my targets abv have been hit...so i closed 1/2 positions late friday ...will monitor rest and scalp some...this baby could be allover the place this week ..and i try to avoid being wrung dry in the middle of it...i looked at all TF and if someone would hold a pistol to my head ..i still couldn't say...

  • #71,094
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:57pm Nov 30, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting TraderPablo
just went shrt eu at .3615 ...must be my lucky....10 minutes....hope it lasts longer though .....hv BS/TP on the way down...1st at..77...then ..68...then 49...and 1.35..rest monitored (by Hand)....no jerking pls....tk cr tp this is going to be an interesting monday/week..none of my targets abv have been hit...so i closed 1/2 positions late friday ...will monitor rest and scalp some...this baby could be allover the place this week ..and i try to avoid being wrung dry in the middle of it...i looked at all TF and if someone would hold a pistol to my...
When you cannot say, then the best position is flat.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,095
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:57pm Nov 30, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mate, second stage of correction was just due to that neg rateceut speech, which was denied. Allover, we didnt ever breach 61,8% fibo, when looking to corrrection of move down from 1,38. Though it is above 50%, I dont like that, but was a heavy market shock during bull run, so correction can be big. Am gonna count some numbers and post it tomorrow, but still think we are peaking right now.
I look forward to your numbers mate
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,096
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:01pm Nov 30, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Euro gains have been on Sterling wings.Pound is the key which ironically relates to yen recent serious drops.Once Yen stabilizes a little we could see overall corrections. Regards
You make a good point. I don't think the Euro would have advanced this much had it not been for Sterling.
Mind you I feel it's more to do with the Japanese initiative of buying up foreign bonds as opposed to JGBs. Even if UK did not show it's recent strength, I think Japanese capital would still have found its way to Europe... perhaps in a lesser degree.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,097
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:03pm Nov 30, 2013 6:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay... Let's get one thing on the table here. Fundamentally the Euro belongs at parity with the USD... or probably even lower. However it has been that way for a long time and all I see out of this pair is more Euro bullish sentiment. So, unless Draghi brings out a big bazooka and gives the banks negative deposit rates, or some other fundamental crap scares the heck out of the market, it looks like we're in for much of the same. They say that when the patient/stubborn bears start to become skeptical, that the market turns around and starts...

Amazing transformation from the old PT..
Have a great December & good w/e everyone..
  • #71,098
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:05pm Nov 30, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mate, second stage of correction was just due to that neg ratecut speech, which was denied. Allover, we didnt ever breach 61,8% fibo, when looking to correction of move down from 1,38. Though it is above 50%, I don't like that, but was a heavy market shock during bull run, so correction can be big. Am gonna count some numbers and post it tomorrow, but still think we are peaking right now.
don't like it neither .....still middle of the range...north or south?? if north towards friday..maybe we're getting a good move south..in the meantime my bet is that mkt may go south til midweek..the charts will tell....ltr. tp
  • #71,099
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:11pm Nov 30, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Amazing transformation from the old PT.. Have a great December & good w/e everyone..
I think you'd be quite frustrated as well if you were in my shoes of waiting on a park bench for the picnic to start. Bears get hungry you know.

Basically I've been counter trend trading for more than half the time in the last year. I'm still in profit and probably would not have made much more trading with the trend, but it certainly would have been much less frustrating... Much much less.

Anyway. This will go on...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: patient_bear.jpg Size: 68 KB


Until this stops
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,100
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:19pm Nov 30, 2013 6:19pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I think you'd be quite frustrated as well if you were in my shoes of waiting on a park bench for the picnic to start. Bears get hungry you know. Basically I've been counter trend trading for more than half the time in the last year. I'm still in profit and probably would not have made much more trading with the trend, but it certainly would have been much less frustrating... Much much less. Anyway. This will go on... {image} Until this stops {image}
maybe sm Chinese rider will get trigger happy and TSHTF...for a while..never mind the reports....

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/30/wo...ml?src=mv&_r=0
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