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Trading Made Simple

  • #27,921
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:43pm Nov 29, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting Blaiserboy
{quote} Have a look at these indicators and determine which may suit your style Chaikin Bollinger Volatility Ratio Average True Range

For TMS:

just use the Average True Range to read the volatility of each tmeframe on your charts.
ATR(7) is commonly used by many traders here. I used ATR(10) on H4 to determine where my stops to be.

For more a general understanding of what forex volatility is, read this article.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FX Volatility byTSL.pdf   544 KB | 1,426 downloads
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,922
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:55pm Nov 29, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} make 80 to 100% per month? keep dreaming ..... Tiggrrr. You are obviously an inexperinced trader here. you are talking theory on charts and about making discretionary trade decisions, etc. let's see 100 trades, then 200 trades, then 300 trades,.... what the win-rate is like. it has been tested over and over again, taking every H4 TDI crosses will end up in losses over long term. Your NZDUSD trade on 25 Nov is a good example. {image} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7112769 This is not the place for high...

Dear Eammanuel,

I completely agree with you.

My expectation with trading 4h candle during london session (with trend) is 20-30% of equity with risking 1-2% of equity as conservative trader.

According to you what should be the average return that one should expect risking maximum of 2% of equity(leverage 1:500).

Thanks
Manoj
  • #27,923
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:26pm Nov 29, 2013 11:26pm
HI,

Took AUDUSD 4h trade yesterday. SL hit of 35 pips.

L earnings from this trade.

1.Could not wait for next candle close at the beginning of london session as suggested by Big E
2. Friday and end of month so would be better to avoid trade on month end and light event friday

Thanks
Manoj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh4.png Size: 63 KB
  • #27,924
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:41pm Nov 29, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting manoj_3986
{quote} Dear Eammanuel, I completely agree with you. My expectation with trading 4h candle during london session (with trend) is 20-30% of equity with risking 1-2% of equity as conservative trader. According to you what should be the average return that one should expect risking maximum of 2% of equity(leverage 1:500). Thanks Manoj

Hi manoj,

Talking about striclty 4H swing trading, when I started out, my target was 10% profit cycle every 20 trading days. I don't use monthly taregts as I may not trade for several days sometimes and also some weeks the market type may not fit what I look for. Those consolidation weeks cannot be traded.

Over the past 3 years, I have manage to reduce this 10% profit cycle down from 20 days to below 10 days. This way is more realistic than to look at profit on monthly basis. This also help maintain a consistent risk per trade to no more than 2% per every new trade per currency pair. The challenge is to maintain this 10% profit cycle consistently over a long period. There is a slo drawdown cycles we need to take into consideration. The recovery part is the hardest thing for traders.

I use different brokers - one with leverage 1:50, 1:100 and 1:200. i don't use any leverage more than 1:200. I know 1:500 is tempting but leverage is never part of a winning money management equation.

I know many traders will say 10% profit is small. But we need to look at what the trading capital is and the trade sizes are. The psychological management part also differs a lot when we trade with large account size. We must also consider this as we trade with growing account size. It is not an easy thing.

regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,925
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:49pm Nov 29, 2013 11:49pm
Year-End Planning:

It is coming to year end and many of you will be reviewing your trading business this year and start plannng for next year.
Some of you like trading H1, while others prefer H4. There are a variiey of reasons why we trade H1 and H4. Whatever the reasons are, one should have both trading plans for intraday trading using H1/M15 and also a trading plan for 4H swing using H4 chart timeframes.

Looking for intraday trade setups in H1 is quite different from H4 swing, but the core method still is to use the TDI as confirmation of the Price Action. Do not limit setups to just the TDI crossing. There is the TDI bounce, 12-2 amd 4-6 conditions which are common.
Follow the Price Action of the price bars/candlesticks and also the APB/HA. You do not need any other technical indicators in making trade setups Go/No-Go decisions.

When trading H1 intraday, you can be trading both in-the-trend and counter-trend setups and catching those intraday corrections or retracements. These can yield some good 1:1 Risk:Reward trades and you need to achieve a high win-rate to be long term profitable.Knowing and following the previous days' D1 price action is important to get into high probability H1/M15 winning trades. It is hard and it can only get easier after you put many trading hours in practice.

Some traders like high risk trading for 10 to 20pips a day and to them it sounds easy using H4 and H1 in synchronization.
Getting 10 to 20 pips per day is not that easy as it is made sound.
What is the high risk Risk:Reward? R:R of 2:1 , 3:1, 4:1 or 5:1?
What Win-rate can you achieve and maintain with such Risk:Reward Ratios?

For those who are struggling with H1 trading, don't give up so easily. Please post you charts and ask your questions. This is a quicker and more effective way
to learn while following this thread with many wonderful people here who are always ready to share their experience and thier views.While you are learning, you need to make you own trading plan for H1 Intraday trading and you must document those distinct chart setups which you want to look for and how you want to execute those trade setups. You don't need 20 different H1 chart setups. You need only five(5) type of charts setups on H1 and these are sufficient for you to work with and get you 3 to 5 good trades each week.

Attached is an old article I found in my computer and it had helped me years ago and I think it will also help some of you. It is not written by me but by another trader who run his own training courses. Resources are freely available online. Just search them and do not overwhelmed yourself reading too much in a short span of time. Keep to the basics and build up your knowledge gradually over time.

Trade Well.

regards,
EMMANUEL

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 10 Ways to Simplify Your Trading.pdf   89 KB | 2,192 downloads
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,926
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:54pm Nov 29, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi manoj, Talking about striclty 4H swing trading, when I started out, my target was 10% profit cycle every 20 trading days. I don't use monthly taregts as I may not trade for several days sometimes and also some weeks the market type may not fit what I look for. Those consolidation weeks cannot be traded. Over the past 3 years, I have manage to reduce this 10% profit cycle down from 20 days to below 10 days. This way is more realistic than to look at profit on monthly basis. This also help maintain a consistent risk per trade to no more...
Thank you very much!
  • #27,927
  • Nov 30, 2013 2:06am Nov 30, 2013 2:06am
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} Thank you soo much my friend! It is very helpful to see both time frames TDI's on one chart instead of flipping back and fourth." Are there any "smooth" TDI indicator MTF ? A lot more easier on the eyes! {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post4622169
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #27,928
  • Nov 30, 2013 2:40am Nov 30, 2013 2:40am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Year-End Planning: It is coming to year end and many of you will be reviewing your trading business this year and start plannng for next year. Some of you like trading H1, while others prefer H4. There are a variiey of reasons why we trade H1 and H4. Whatever the reasons are, one should have both trading plans for intraday trading using H1/M15 and also a trading plan for 4H swing using H4 chart timeframes. Looking for intraday trade setups in H1 is quite different from H4 swing, but the core method still is to use the TDI as confirmation of the...
You alway help people not to be misled and watch reality in Forex business. I really appreciate that. It helps beginners like me a lot.
Have a nice weekend.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #27,929
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:23am Nov 30, 2013 6:23am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi manoj, Talking about striclty 4H swing trading, when I started out, my target was 10% profit cycle every 20 trading days. I don't use monthly taregts as I may not trade for several days sometimes and also some weeks the market type may not fit what I look for. Those consolidation weeks cannot be traded. Over the past 3 years, I have manage to reduce this 10% profit cycle down from 20 days to below 10 days. This way is more realistic than to look at profit on monthly basis. This also help maintain a consistent risk per trade to no more...
I'm sorry, I didn't quite understand the bit where you target 10% profit cycle every 20 trading days. Would you be so kind as to elaborate a little on that? I'm having a hard time keeping track of my results for a period of time, because as you said market isn't always ideal, there's bank holidays etc. I'm working on formulating a plan and establishing a target... but it's hard to make it a realistic one because theoretically we live in a perfect world so to speak. Thank you in advance.
  • #27,930
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:37am Nov 30, 2013 6:37am
Assuming he's not compounding his returns to calculate his total of 10%, if he is trading 20 days (over 4 weeks or two days per month would be 10 months), he is looking for .5% per trading day.

I think it's helpful to just calculate the average return per week, per month and per trading 'days'. (I hadn't considered the last one before, but assuming you don't trade every day, it gives you a better understanding of your average trading results.) The first two give you average return over a relative time period, thus allowing you to track your 'income', on a regular basis.

Weekly seems the best balance for me, as it adds enough granularity to see where there were peaks and troughs.
  • #27,931
  • Nov 30, 2013 9:59am Nov 30, 2013 9:59am
hi emmanuel

many thanks for the advice and the PDF...your help here is invaluable. do you mean by the 12-2 and 4-6 rule that if PA looks good and green TDI is above/below the signal line at those angles then that can be considered a TMS trade? thanks

Quoting emmanuel7788
Year-End Planning: It is coming to year end and many of you will be reviewing your trading business this year and start plannng for next year. Some of you like trading H1, while others prefer H4. There are a variiey of reasons why we trade H1 and H4. Whatever the reasons are, one should have both trading plans for intraday trading using H1/M15 and also a trading plan for 4H swing using H4 chart timeframes. Looking for intraday trade setups in H1 is quite different from H4 swing, but the core method still is to use the TDI as confirmation of the...
  • #27,932
  • Nov 30, 2013 11:22am Nov 30, 2013 11:22am
Quoting Blaiserboy
{quote} Have a look at these indicators and determine which may suit your style Chaikin Bollinger Volatility Ratio Average True Range
Thank you.
  • #27,933
  • Nov 30, 2013 11:38am Nov 30, 2013 11:38am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Attached is an old article I found in my computer and it had helped me years ago and I think it will also help some of you. It is not written by me but by another trader who run his own training courses. Resources are freely available online. Just search them and do not overwhelmed yourself reading too much in a short span of time. Keep to the basics and build up your knowledge gradually over time. Trade Well. regards, EMMANUEL {image}
Thanks for posting the article. It was very informative especially if you want to trade longer time frames
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #27,934
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:07pm Nov 30, 2013 5:07pm
EJ trades last week.
H1....lots of sideways movement at the beginning of the week....mostly scalp trading with entries on M15 crosses......did manage a couple of nice trades later in the week.
H4....just one trade on H4....still using 1/2 lots as I continue to learn more about the H4 nuances....still a nice trade that barely hit TP. As Emmanuel had pointed out, there was some major resistance at that level, so I placed my stop right at the resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013.11.29 ej h4 week.png Size: 40 KB
  • #27,935
  • Dec 1, 2013 4:58am Dec 1, 2013 4:58am
Quoting Phx62
EJ trades last week. H1....lots of sideways movement at the beginning of the week....mostly scalp trading with entries on M15 crosses......did manage a couple of nice trades later in the week. H4....just one trade on H4....still using 1/2 lots as I continue to learn more about the H4 nuances....still a nice trade that barely hit TP. As Emmanuel had pointed out, there was some major resistance at that level, so I placed my stop right at the resistance.{image}{image}
Hello Phx 62, inspiring as usual. Your scalp trades were nicely timed. A different question regarding trading this week though. Due to the ranging market in H1, you decided to cuts your profits before they turned to a loss(no 50 tp ). At what point do you tell yourself "this week is going to be a ranging market, better exit those trades quick"
I happened to look at some of the price action that oyu took your scalp trades and unforunately I see not much of a discernable difference between a 50 pip run or a small movement of 20 pips. What criteria helps you differentiate?

P.s. Just being nosy, you mentioned that you trade with .5 lots for H4 time frames cause you were testing out. Do you trade with larger amounts for for H1? NOthing trading related
  • #27,936
  • Dec 1, 2013 5:41am Dec 1, 2013 5:41am
hello guys... I read the first few pages of this thread. My I have the lastest template and indicators required to setup
Knock at the sky and feel the thunder
  • #27,937
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:46am Dec 1, 2013 8:46am
hi lads. please do you have r multiple money managment in exel? thanks
  • #27,938
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:55am Dec 1, 2013 8:55am
Quoting tenmilewalk
{quote} Hello Phx 62, inspiring as usual. Your scalp trades were nicely timed. A different question regarding trading this week though. Due to the ranging market in H1, you decided to cuts your profits before they turned to a loss(no 50 tp ). At what point do you tell yourself "this week is going to be a ranging market, better exit those trades quick" I happened to look at some of the price action that oyu took your scalp trades and unforunately I see not much of a discernable difference between a 50 pip run or a small movement of 20 pips. What...
Typically, during holiday weeks, market momentum slows and the market ranges. I entered the first trade of the week on a typical LO trade, expecting price to reach the 50 TP, since the TDI was moving out of the overbought area. It took price over three hours to move 25 pips, so when it pulled back, I got out. Following that move down, the TDI hovered around the 50 line, indicating no momentum, so I just scalped a couple of trades. The 100 pip trade was entered like the others but on the third candle, the market made a strong move up, so I stayed in.
To answer your second question, I normally trade with 1 full lot....occasionally, I will trade with up to 2 lots.
Regards
  • #27,939
  • Edited 4:45pm Dec 1, 2013 4:40pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting Phx62
EJ trades last week. H1....lots of sideways movement at the beginning of the week....mostly scalp trading with entries on M15 crosses......did manage a couple of nice trades later in the week. H4....just one trade on H4....still using 1/2 lots as I continue to learn more about the H4 nuances....still a nice trade that barely hit TP. As Emmanuel had pointed out, there was some major resistance at that level, so I placed my stop right at the resistance.{image}{image}

Hi Phx. Lemme tell you that your style is my favorite. Tho im yet to figure it out, its always tempting to be able to trade on one tf only and catch almost all swings. BUT, i always notice that your entries are off at least i think they are. As i understand, cross is confirmed upon the close of that candle, bu your entries are almost always early, the latest example (one of 'em anyhow) being your 200pips blockbuster EURJPY trade. The signal candle closed - thus confirmed - at 137.9s, your entered the trade somewhere around 137.55-137.60. thats almost 30pips early. Can you plss explain under what terms you decide to enter the market or is it that the close of candle is not that important? thanks.
I marked the close with red arrow

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,940
  • Dec 1, 2013 4:44pm Dec 1, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Thank you very much for your feedback, Sir. I know you use Daily_High_Low.mq4 indicator to draw Daily high/low and you manually draw weekly and monthly high/low. The H4 high/low lines in your chart doesn't look come from either BreakOut_BOX or any other pivot indicators you ever mentioned. Although I did a due diligence to make a search for good 4H high/low indicators, I couldn't find what I like. H4 Hi-Lo lines (Black).ex4 indicator which Emmanuel uploaded long ago looks ok, but it requires manually refresh. Unless your indicator is private,...

hi Heispark:
The H4 Hi-Lo lines (Black).ex4 indicator start giving me the expire error today. Do you still use it and have the same problem?
Thanks!
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