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  • #858,361
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:50am Nov 29, 2013 10:50am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} this is good. I love your spirit.
It's something one needs a lot of in trading
  • #858,362
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:55am Nov 29, 2013 10:55am
what a joke, 48 hours of waiting for 3 pips of profit (my eurusd trading).

good weekend everybody
  • #858,363
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:56am Nov 29, 2013 10:56am
That is an interesting GU rally here , wow. Even while EU stood still.

Even more interesting where it topped out, 15 min pin bar right on the trend line from the 1.48 lows, this could be pretty important going forward.

Have decided to go short based on this. Probably shouldn't be doing this, if anything shoulda been looking to buy earlier, because trend is up. But the risk reward is too good at this spot.
  • #858,364
  • Nov 29, 2013 10:59am Nov 29, 2013 10:59am
See how the level I mentioned is holding. It has 61 mins to go!!!
  • #858,365
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:00am Nov 29, 2013 11:00am
EURUSD


BUY @ XXXXX
SL @ XXXXX
TP = OPTIONAL


SL will always be <15pips
  • #858,366
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:01am Nov 29, 2013 11:01am
Quoting Citiboy
Why do folks on this forum refer to 'the banks' as some shadowy entity that steals all your money and is never wrong. The guys that you are REALLY trading against are as follows... Retail and Bank Positioning isnt even in the picture. Banks mostly only trade for other folks... and runs stops to make 3 pips here and there. When a move is starting, the players move as follows: Smart Money/ Discretionary Hedge Funds get on board to express a view, usually before the move is apparent. Systematic/Model Driven hedge funds jump onto the small momentum...
Well said, the price is reluctant to go up and feels like market is waiting for an excuse to drop euro to the downside.
  • #858,367
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:05am Nov 29, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Well said, the price is reluctant to go up and feels like market is waiting for an excuse to drop euro to the downside.
Conditions for an omega at 1.35967 are forming. There is already one on my 1hr and 4hr charts. So, EURUSD is building a BUY.

BUY @1.36037

SL @ 1.35967


(7 pips SL)


tp = Your taste

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  • #858,368
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:10am Nov 29, 2013 11:10am
Quoting Citiboy
At some point its idiotic to continue holding billions in overvalued Spanish and Italian bonds and equities while Fed is about to withdraw its QE program that has been such a support mechanism for these periphery European assets.
I agree with most of your post except for the end. The Fed isn't withdrawing their QE program, they plan on slightly (!!!) downsizing it...and will likely replace this downsizing with another mechanism (they just won't call it QE).

Shaving a few billion off an $85b/mo QE program can't be called a "withdrawal"
  • #858,369
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:11am Nov 29, 2013 11:11am
GU starting to look like it's going to 1.675, possibly 1.7
  • #858,370
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:18am Nov 29, 2013 11:18am
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} I agree with most of your post except for the end. The Fed isn't withdrawing their QE program, they plan on slightly (!!!) downsizing it...and will likely replace this downsizing with another mechanism (they just won't call it QE). Shaving a few billion off an $85b/mo QE program can't be called a "withdrawal"
A few weeks ago, Fed said QE3 will run to $1.5Trillion while currently it has reached $1.1Trillion, so given that there's $400Billion left, tapering needed to smooth out the end impact.

Market clearly is not pricing in a Dec taper, but with another $85 billion gone, by Dec there's $315 billion left in QE3 and to ensure QE3 does not end too fast, they have to start taper and gradually increase the size of the taper. At some point, there will be a reckoning of this and USD will firm up. But question is when and how much more can USD sink against EUR before that. It's right to go long or short from here depends on the timeframe and expectation.
  • #858,371
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:18am Nov 29, 2013 11:18am
Quoting Ck87
GU starting to look like it's going to 1.675, possibly 1.7
If it gets there, it will make my Skii trip quite a bit cheaper than I planned back in Aug, hehe
  • #858,372
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:19am Nov 29, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Conditions for an omega at 1.35967 are forming. There is already one on my 1hr and 4hr charts. So, EURUSD is building a BUY. BUY @1.36037 SL @ 1.35967 (7 pips SL) tp = Your taste {image}
What is omega?
  • #858,373
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:20am Nov 29, 2013 11:20am
Quoting Ck87
GU starting to look like it's going to 1.675, possibly 1.7
and yet somebody was expecting a 700 pips drop... there must be something with the number 700...oh well...
  • #858,374
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:23am Nov 29, 2013 11:23am
Quoting attila
{quote} and yet somebody was expecting a 700 pips drop... oh well...

Yeah, I saw Dollar strength coming in AU and figured it would be the same for EU and GU, but clearly not
  • #858,375
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:25am Nov 29, 2013 11:25am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} What is omega?
Don't worry about that. It is just the summary of all I have ever built for trading.

But one thing I discovered in trading and it is true is this: The signal for a buy/sell does not occur first on the lower timeframes -as many traders believe.
It is present first on the higer timeframes and then little by little the same signal appears on the other time-frames. Once, it appears on the 1min tf, price will normally be 10pips away from the best place to place your SL. Then you strike.

That is the role of my omega.
  • #858,376
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:27am Nov 29, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah, I saw Dollar strength coming in AU and figured it would be the same for EU and GU, but clearly not
I wasn't referring to you, just used your post.. That was supposed to be the trade of the century..lol..
  • #858,377
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:29am Nov 29, 2013 11:29am
GU has made an impressive run. I expect a pull back. Will look to buy on a significant pull back to 1.6100ish. I can not see E/U going much higher. Holding Shorts from 1.3514 and 1.3552. Not Adding unless we reach 1.3700. I believe the fall will be fast and furious for Euro.
  • #858,378
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:30am Nov 29, 2013 11:30am
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} I agree with most of your post except for the end. The Fed isn't withdrawing their QE program, they plan on slightly (!!!) downsizing it...and will likely replace this downsizing with another mechanism (they just won't call it QE). Shaving a few billion off an $85b/mo QE program can't be called a "withdrawal"

From what I have heard the Fed is considering multiple options to soften the blow of ending QE, whether that is a cut in the Feds deposit rate to 0%, lowering the unemployment threshold or outright purchases of short term treasuries to anchor the short end of the curve...

All of these measures depend on how the economy is doing. The recent flurry of Fed commentary has still communicated the same messages of tapering being data dependent and tapering isn't tightening. They hope promises of forward guidance will stop short term interest rates from blowing out. Just as Carney has struggled to control rate expectations int he face of a strengthening UK economy, Yellen will face a similar challenge.

I will commend the Fed in that they have successfully split the effects of tapering, the 10yr rate can rise but 2 years and in has remained relatively tame... especially since that EUR spike on July 10th Bernanke testimony that started this entire move down in the USD. Prior to July 10th long end rates would blast higher and very shorter term rates would do the same. Their constant pounding of the message that tapering is not tightening has taken effect, as 2 year rates have fallen significantly, and the 2y/10y spread has increased. The estimated first rate hike has gone from Dec 2014 out to the 2nd half of 2015.

All of this being said, every additional 200k+ NFP re calibrates the timeline of tapering, and if you bring tapering closer you also have to bring the first rate hike closer. This is all a game of if the Fed can control the short end rates market, which is the main driver of FX flows.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #858,379
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:30am Nov 29, 2013 11:30am
I think that major traders have a way of signalling to their colleagues, when to buy/sell. I have not seen this principle fail when I am watching the charts.
Once the signal is replicated on the 1min tf, price moves in the direction of omega. Notice that omega is always 10pips or less away from the current price.

Our buy is working well
  • #858,380
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:31am Nov 29, 2013 11:31am
Quoting attila
{quote} I wasn't referring to you, just used your post.. That was supposed to be the trade of the century..lol..
Yeah, it could end up surprising us how high it ends up going. Buying the dip strategy intraday is looking really damn good right now.
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