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Trading Made Simple

  • #27,901
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:53am Nov 29, 2013 12:53am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} higher TF means fewer trades but bigger traded range. higher Tf does not mean more risk than lower TF. a SL of 50pips and a SL of 100pips has the same % risk per trade when you trade using position sizing.
Couldn't agree more!
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #27,902
  • Nov 29, 2013 1:22am Nov 29, 2013 1:22am
I know that Eelfranz said to trade only the New York and London Sessions, but since I am learning this system I saw that on eur/aud, gbp/aud and aud aud/chf you have almost on a daily basis a good trade during the Asian Session on an 1H Chart.

See the charts bellow. Red lines are entries, Magenta lines are exits. Entry is based on tdi crosses. Exit is subjective. I use the TDI rules, PA, ADR PRO Calculator and the Continuation indicator to estimate how much to stay in the trade.

The three pairs mentioned earlier move generaly at the same time during that time frame, so I`ve traded them at the same time over the past month and had good results. Did a backtest on this strategy from 2004 to present and came up with an average of 308 pips/month on each pair.

What do you think about this?
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  • #27,903
  • Nov 29, 2013 1:23am Nov 29, 2013 1:23am
Quoting Bizzzle
{quote} News is important but it really depends on many things! If I am in a trade and my stops are at break-even, most of the time I don't worry because I have no risk. When you are back-testing do you check if there was news on that day? If no then you are back-testing the market on PA and TDI and nothing else so the result don't account for news! Some ppl trade it, some don't! Its all personal. Practice on demo and gain some experience, believe me you will not regret it!! Hope that helped
Actually sometimes when I backtest I do check if there were any news! But ok, I get the picture
  • #27,904
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:37am Nov 29, 2013 3:37am
Quoting Bizzzle
{quote} I am very successful with the 4 hour charts, I tried 1 hour but like you, I prefer 4 hour. Back-testing is the best way to get confident in trading. A couple things to note is wait for a candle to closed before exiting because many times the candle will change colour and then pull back. I only open trades the same times as {image} eelfranz did! GMT 6am, 10am, and 2pm! There earlier the better. I also have my 6 pairs in front of me at all time and if I see most of them with the same signal it...
Hey guys,

I have been coming to a similar realisation lately about H1 trading. It is very difficult to do when working at the same time having to constantly check charts.

H1 seems something that requires much more screen time throughout the day, H4 is much more suited to those working at the same time I think. I was finding I was unable to check charts at the best times and therefore missing the best trades and/or entering late.

Although I have been working on a trading plan for H1 for a while, I started looking at H4 charts this week and have found it much more relaxing, less time consuming and manageable, and also signals are much clearer - this week at least.

I will be adjusting my plan and trading H4 from next week.

irishtoffy
  • #27,905
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:52am Nov 29, 2013 3:52am
Thanks goochi, indeed your explanation very much indeed help, especially confirming what PHx62 study when PA reverse due to news, that price action most often continue the way , I have this indeed pin outlined in my trading plan as pin with higher close

You efforts are much appreciated and I'm sincerely thanking you and others for all the help you are giving back, take care and wishing you a good weekend ahead
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #27,906
  • Edited 5:46pm Nov 29, 2013 10:08am | Edited 5:46pm
Hey guys, a few H4 trades today. I'm posting only 3, because these are the only ones I executed on MT4. With the other broker I can't copy the charts like this.
Around 5 different pairs for circa +20/30 pips each and one around +50. I wanted to check the M15 before last H4 candle close to avoid pullbacks, since it's Friday. My profits could've been more than 50 pips more all together but I was home a little late, however early enough to exit before bigger pullbacks. Either way, not bad at all for one lazy Friday afternoon.

I'm posting these in a speedy fashion since I'm in a bit of a hurry, can't comment or draw entries and exits on other charts atm, but your comments are welcome.
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  • #27,907
  • Nov 29, 2013 1:56pm Nov 29, 2013 1:56pm
My EN trade from this morning, closed due to purple line, it being counter trend and months end/Friday.

Also, from a learning perspective, this is a simple break of double top/bottom set up, with either FO/LO, phx62 shows this many times in his pdf files.
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  • #27,908
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:35pm Nov 29, 2013 3:35pm
I hear people complaining about trading the 1H charts and how they don't have the patience to constantly check the charts every hour for an entry....that mindset is the reason traders lose money. A successful trader has the patience to check the charts constantly because they know as a result they will make money.

My strategy consists of having both the 4H and 1H chart open. When 4H chart TDI is about to cross I observe the 1H charts to enter and in the end pips are easily made. I only go for 10-20 pips a day and the amount of time and patience involved is the reason for my success. Unfortunately It took me 1 year to start making money off this system (been lurking around the forums for a while) and all the time I put in finally paid off. I have been studying the charts more than I was focusing on my studies....maybe that will show you guys how much hours and time it takes to because a successful trader.

I am a high risk trader...so with a $2000 account I enter with 0.80 lots, get my 10-20 pips ($80-$180/day) and I'm finished for the day. I do not suggest this strategy unless you practiced on a demo account for at least a year...It is greed that turns a good entry into a bad one....so take what the market gives you !

-Tiggrrr
Take what the market gives you.
  • #27,909
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:47pm Nov 29, 2013 3:47pm
How do you guys measure volatility in the FX market?

I am interested in the 4h chart.
  • #27,910
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:34pm Nov 29, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
I hear people complaining about trading the 1H charts and how they don't have the patience to constantly check the charts every hour for an entry....that mindset is the reason traders lose money. A successful trader has the patience to check the charts constantly because they know as a result they will make money. My strategy consists of having both the 4H and 1H chart open. When 4H chart TDI is about to cross I observe the 1H charts to enter and in the end pips are easily made. I only go for 10-20 pips a day and the amount of time and patience...
Patience? Who said anything about patience? With all due respect mate, some of us have a lot more going on in our lives than studies. Like financing them, paying the rent and helping out our family members at the same time, who either work for small wages or can't even get a job. This is not the US, Canada, UK, Australia etc... Some also have children and a whole series of obligations. Maybe have some social life so we don't completely burn out.
I personally wanted to learn to trade FX to earn extra income, and maybe eventually do just that for a living, but one has to learn first, yes?

For the past few weeks I was sacrificing every free moment to study and work on my trading plan, with which eventually I was making between 500 and 1000 pips weekly on H1 (demo, since I'm just starting), depending on the market type and weekly range. Nice plan right? Sure. But the thing is I almost lost my job on several occasions because I was late or was peeking at the charts during work, neglected uni obligations as well. I can't just quit my job because I need guaranteed monthly income to support myself and some other dear people each month. Only the very experienced traders with decent capital can handle that kind of pressure.

So the H4 is more suitable. It is also a psychological thing, a TF is a personality characteristic. Plus - why would I sit by the computer all day if I can make 100+ pips no sweat in one day, by looking at the charts 4 or 5 times a day, 10 mins max per look?
  • #27,911
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:58pm Nov 29, 2013 5:58pm
Hey guys, I have a simple doubt to when to enter my trade..is it better to wait for a clear break with space as shown on number 1, or should i enter my trade as soon as the line crosses over as seen on 2? Thanks.. (red vertical line shows entry point).

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YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #27,912
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:01pm Nov 29, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting Lane
{quote} Patience? Who said anything about patience? With all due respect mate, some of us have a lot more going on in our lives than studies. Like financing them, paying the rent and helping out our family members at the same time, who either work for small wages or can't even get a job. This is not the US, Canada, UK, Australia etc... Some also have children and a whole series of obligations. Maybe have some social life so we don't completely burn out. I personally wanted to learn to trade FX to earn extra income, and maybe eventually do just that...
I don't think he meant any offense, im sure he as well as you has other things going on in his life other than trading, as we all do.

He was referring to some traders/people that want everything spoon fed to them and will moan about having to put effort in such as looking at boring charts for long periods.

Regarding your last point about "why would i sit by the computer all day if i can make 100+ pips a day ect..."

I am a 1 hour trader, i hardly even bother to look at 4 hour charts, i trade for a living and i trade from LO+3/4, often have won/lost a trade and finish for the day, why would i bother to even think about trading for the rest of the day like you do?

All time frames have +/- about them.
  • #27,913
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:03pm Nov 29, 2013 6:03pm
Quoting sk8buc
How do you guys measure volatility in the FX market? I am interested in the 4h chart.
Have a look at these indicators and determine which may suit your style

Chaikin
Bollinger
Volatility Ratio
Average True Range
  • #27,914
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:07pm Nov 29, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting sk8buc
Hello, what do you think about this entry of mine on gbp/usd? Even though it is counter trend, I`ve entered because PA reached year high. Limit is as 16228 and stop at 16384 {image}
There is divergence on that chart if you use Macd or Awesome oscillator.... you may find that you are in a bit early.
  • #27,915
  • Edited 6:38pm Nov 29, 2013 6:11pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
When 4H chart TDI is about to cross I observe the 1H charts to enter and in the end pips are easily made. I only go for 10-20 pips a day and the amount of time and patience involved is the reason for my success.
I'm glad that you reach your daily profits, but from a strictly pip-perspective - a 10-20 pip trade based on combined H4 and H1 TDI signal, I would hardly call that a success. No offense. Even with the "most core" TMS entry/exit rules and without any real analysis you could easily get in the WORST case a 30 pip move on a pair from that kind of signal. Maybe you are intentionally exiting early, I don't know, but if not, I really think you aren't using even a half of TMS' potential.
  • #27,916
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:36pm Nov 29, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Arete
{quote} I don't think he meant any offense, im sure he as well as you has other things going on in his life other than trading, as we all do. He was referring to some traders/people that want everything spoon fed to them and will moan about having to put effort in such as looking at boring charts for long periods. Regarding your last point about "why would i sit by the computer all day if i can make 100+ pips a day ect..." I am a 1 hour trader, i hardly even bother to look at 4 hour charts, i trade for a living and i trade from LO+3/4, often have...
Nah I'm not offended, I just assumed he was answering to our recent topic, and I thought he had misunderstood us.

When I was trading H1, I used to check the charts from Frankfurt open till early afternoon, maybe set stop orders for the Tokyo session before I go to sleep. Only today I started testing H4, but only checked the candles open/close every 4 hours, and sometimes set stop orders. Sometimes there are good moves between 2pm and 6pm CET so it doesn't hurt to look at the chart on more time during the day. But maybe more important reason is since I want to look at "live" charts more often instead of backtesting... It's just for learning PA and signals, to see how my prediction turns out, to see each candle... I don't really care for these pips, it's virtual money anyway.
  • #27,917
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:38pm Nov 29, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURJPY monthly view: where do you see potential resistance which can stop EJ rising further and possible major correction. {image}
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EJ made a new high for Nov MN close. I clsoed my trades for the month and no more trading next month as it is my vacation time.

Dec MN will be interesting with holiday periods ahead. For position traders, you have to decide if you want to by buyer or seller. I'll back trading mid-Jan.

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regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,918
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:38pm Nov 29, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting Lane
{quote} I'm glad that you reach your daily profits, but from a strictly pip-perspective - a 10-20 pip trade based on combined H4 and H1 TDI signal, I would hardly call that a success. No offense. Even with the "most core" TMS entry/exit rules and without any real analysis you could easily get in the WORST case a 30 pip move on a pair from that kind of signal. Maybe you are intentionally exiting early, I don't know, but if not, I really think you aren't using even a half TMS' potential.

My objective is to make 80-100% per month so instead of only risking 2% of my account i change the game plan. Plus there are many bounce trades that occur on both 4H and 1H charts so holding on to your trades a little bit longer is risky. So my strategy consists of entering on EVERY TDI cross regardless of if being above or below the yellow line (MBL) on 4H charts by finding an entry point on the on 1H charts or even sometimes 15M charts when the TDI on 4H charts is about to cross. If there are no crosses on the 4H charts and my daily objective wasn't reached I look for an nice 1H cross and observe an entry on the 15M chart.

10-20 pips a day set as a TP without any stress or risk of a bounce trade by investing 80% of your account and making 5% per day for 20 business days is working wonders for me. Every TDI cross on both 1H and 4H charts easily gives you 10pips very easily. But for many earning 10 pips only trading 2% of your account may seem like nothing....it also did for me. But then i was like "screw this" and decided to trade 80% of my account and those 10 pips that were easily given to became a gold mine.

I dont suggest ANYONE to risk 80% of their account as I do. But if you do so you must do a lot of testing yourself and analyze the charts on a daily basis to see what would suite well with your objective. TMS can be used it many different ways and evolved greatly. eelfranz began by setting a set standard and over the years it has evolved and used differently that fits best for everyone. In the beginning I used TMS just as eelfranz has given to us, but over time as you start using it the system develops that will fit your eyes, standards, personality, time management, etc.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #27,919
  • Nov 29, 2013 8:09pm Nov 29, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} My objective is to make 80-100% per month so instead of only risking 2% of my account i change the game plan. Plus there are many bounce trades that occur on both 4H and 1H charts so holding on to your trades a little bit longer is risky. So my strategy consists of entering on EVERY TDI cross regardless of if being above or below the yellow line (MBL) on 4H charts by finding an entry point on the on 1H charts or even sometimes 15M charts when the TDI on 4H charts is about to cross. If there are no crosses on...
make 80 to 100% per month?

keep dreaming ..... Tiggrrr. You are obviously an inexperinced trader here.

you are talking theory on charts and about making discretionary trade decisions, etc.

let's see 100 trades, then 200 trades, then 300 trades,.... what the win-rate is like.

it has been tested over and over again, taking every H4 TDI crosses will end up in losses over long term. Your NZDUSD trade on 25 Nov is a good example.
Attached Image


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7112769

This is not the place for high risk high return type of trading style.
Our OP eelfranz aka Big E did not advocate that type of high risk trading. His advice to new traders had always been to trade with prudence, we can all read in his 463 posts.

Trading with TMS as the method requires discretionary decisions and that come from practice, practice, practice. It is never about taking high risk money management.


regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,920
  • Edited 9:21pm Nov 29, 2013 8:34pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting sk8buc
Hello, what do you think about this entry of mine on gbp/usd? Even though it is counter trend, I`ve entered because PA reached year high. Limit is as 16228 and stop at 16384 {image}

Hi sk8buc

Looking at your chart, the H4 setup was good and you knew it was countrend trade hence the risk is there. Good thing we have our stops in place when things don't go our way. Like what Big E often said: ... learn to take some risks. not every setup will go the way we want.

But, my advice is when we take countrend trades, we look for possible correction of the previous Day or previous Week. This must best be at some price levels where historical support and resistance usually will help us decide. Look back at GU Day chart, 3 consecutive D1 bull candles with a strong breakout above 1.6229 on 27 Nov. We can only look for small retracements on 28 and 29 Nov. That is how I look for H1 trades on intraday basis.

Following up next week 49, we should be looking closely at the price action around 1.6411 and 1.6453, these can be potential reaction levels where counter trend trades can turn into reversal. Look at Day candles for early reversal signs.

Trade Well.

regards,
EMMANUEL

Edit: add chart
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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