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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,941
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:14am Nov 28, 2013 11:14am
Quoting counterpoint
{quote} do you have TP in mind?
nope, depends on priceaction
just do it
  • #39,942
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:25am Nov 28, 2013 11:25am
Quoting ReyesWhite
Yeh around 102.21

very brave. whats your SL?
  • #39,943
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:28am Nov 28, 2013 11:28am
Quoting thodie
disclaimer: i´m short! {image}
also very brave. what was your entry and whats your SL, wenn ich fragen darf
  • #39,944
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:44am Nov 28, 2013 11:44am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} also very brave. what was your entry and whats your SL, wenn ich fragen darf
actually floating -12pips
just do it
  • #39,945
  • Nov 28, 2013 1:58pm Nov 28, 2013 1:58pm
I believe we will take out the highs shortly and head to 105. And like I said the other day, I think we might not retest that 100 level again for what could be years to come.

Just hoping there's another decent size pull back to around 100.82 or at least 101.50 to give a nice long set up. These pairs are going to go so high. Geppy is crushing it hard since GBP is trending strong to upside as well.
  • #39,946
  • Nov 28, 2013 4:18pm Nov 28, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting Ck87
I believe we will take out the highs shortly and head to 105. And like I said the other day, I think we might not retest that 100 level again for what could be years to come. Just hoping there's another decent size pull back to around 100.82 or at least 101.50 to give a nice long set up. These pairs are going to go so high. Geppy is crushing it hard since GBP is trending strong to upside as well.
yeah.. I'm waiting for a small pullback too..
  • #39,947
  • Nov 28, 2013 4:34pm Nov 28, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting Ck87
I believe we will take out the highs shortly and head to 105. And like I said the other day, I think we might not retest that 100 level again for what could be years to come. Just hoping there's another decent size pull back to around 100.82 or at least 101.50 to give a nice long set up. These pairs are going to go so high. Geppy is crushing it hard since GBP is trending strong to upside as well.


I’m going to quote you 2 of Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules that are starting to apply here;

#2 - Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

You just need to look back at how the market reacted last time we surpassed 103, which was a rapid rise from 100, much like this one.

#9 - When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen.

It seems everyone is back to the 105, 107 or 110 forecast. The “very” last time I was hearing this was when the market was tumbling down to almost 93 from 103.70. The “second” last time was when the market initially shot up above 100 earlier this year.

Everyone is getting very complacent, thinking to buy the pullback that “will, must, has to” go back up and beyond.

Its right around times like this people get slaughtered.
  • #39,948
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:09pm Nov 28, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} I’m going to quote you 2 of Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules that are starting to apply here; #2 - Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. You just need to look back at how the market reacted last time we surpassed 103, which was a rapid rise from 100, much like this one. #9 - When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen. It seems everyone is back to the 105, 107 or 110 forecast. The “very” last time I was hearing this was when the market was tumbling down to almost...

From what I can tell, people are not overly long USD/JPY, it's somewhere in the middle, if it were the way you're talking it would be like 80% longs.
  • #39,949
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:19pm Nov 28, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} I’m going to quote you 2 of Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules that are starting to apply here; #2 - Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. You just need to look back at how the market reacted last time we surpassed 103, which was a rapid rise from 100, much like this one. #9 - When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen. It seems everyone is back to the 105, 107 or 110 forecast. The “very” last time I was hearing this was when the market was tumbling down to almost...
Generally true, but what can you really do when they are on such a strong stimulus program?
It's okay to make bad trades. You just need to win more than you lose.. some people don't even have 50% win rate and yet still make money because of tight SL and bigger TP. UJ has a potential. 102 to 105 is 300 pips. Well, maybe change that to 102-104 to higher the chance of hitting TP. Put SL 50-70 pips below. I think that's a setup right there.. GBP or EUR on the other hand, GBP is just so strong, I feel like it may be a bit overpriced. EUR is not as strong.. But they both shoot up way more than UJ has. On short term perspective, it is possible for GJ and EJ to pull back a little bit.
UJ is not on multi-year high yet.. so I'd say there's more room for UJ to go on. There's not exactly a good reason to sell from here either.. Maybe hedge? Everyone makes a bad trade at one point.. Just have to look for good opportunities
  • #39,950
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:29pm Nov 28, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} I’m going to quote you 2 of Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules that are starting to apply here; #2 - Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
Like Ck87 said, I think you are overestimating the # of people who are long.


http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios

This graphic shows that 52% of retail traders are long USDJPY. As someone who is long, I wish there were less people long, maybe it would be moving more quickly.

Just look at AUDUSD...65% of retail is long that pair and look at how fast it is dropping!
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,951
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:48pm Nov 28, 2013 5:48pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Like Ck87 said, I think you are overestimating the # of people who are long. http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios This graphic shows that 52% of retail traders are long USDJPY. As someone who is long, I wish there were less people long, maybe it would be moving more quickly. Just look at AUDUSD...65% of retail is long that pair and look at how fast it is dropping!


Guys,

Retail FX traders move nothing; approximately two-thirds of their orders don’t even hit a real market.

The futures market is heavily short Yen, the latest CFTC COT data shows it’s standing at a 6-year high. This means the market is even more short than it was back in May when we reached the previous swing-high.

Nobody knows the % short or long, but we do know where hedge funds and large specs stand – they stand short together.
  • #39,952
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:50pm Nov 28, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} Guys, Retail FX traders move nothing; approximately two-thirds of their orders don’t even hit a real market. The futures market is heavily short Yen, the latest CFTC COT data shows it’s standing at a 6-year high. This means the market is even more short than it was back in May when we reached the previous swing-high. Nobody knows the % short or long, but we do know where hedge funds and large specs stand – they stand short together.

I don't know what your point is anyways, You want to try to fight one of the strongest trends in markets right now, then go ahead. I for one am not going to fight this trend, I am going to embrace it and participate in it. I hope theres as many pull backs as you think there will be, especially right now, because it's going to be easy money.
  • #39,953
  • Nov 28, 2013 5:55pm Nov 28, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I don't know what your point is anyways, You want to try to fight one of the strongest trends in markets right now, then go ahead. I for one am not going to fight this trend, I am going to embrace it and participate in it. I hope theres as many pull backs as you think there will be, especially right now, because it's going to be easy money.

Right, start of the last day of the week, crap JPY data, so why not let's roll Higher!!!
  • #39,954
  • Nov 28, 2013 6:00pm Nov 28, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I don't know what your point is anyways, You want to try to fight one of the strongest trends in markets right now, then go ahead. I for one am not going to fight this trend, I am going to embrace it and participate in it. I hope theres as many pull backs as you think there will be, especially right now, because it's going to be easy money.


The first point was a cautionary point for traders buying pullbacks expecting guaranteed profits.

The second point was to show you the market is not in the middle, if that’s what you believed and were using to formulate an opinion, it’s very short.
  • #39,955
  • Nov 28, 2013 6:21pm Nov 28, 2013 6:21pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} Guys, Retail FX traders move nothing; approximately two-thirds of their orders don’t even hit a real market. The futures market is heavily short Yen, the latest CFTC COT data shows it’s standing at a 6-year high. This means the market is even more short than it was back in May when we reached the previous swing-high. Nobody knows the % short or long, but we do know where hedge funds and large specs stand – they stand short together.
So if everyone is already short...why is Yen still going down? One day maybe Yen will rise, but Yen bulls may not even profit off their opinion as market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Now I remember that you were trading FX options and you said you had to make adjustments to your position if market makes a dramatic move. Have you had to make any adjustments yet?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,956
  • Nov 28, 2013 6:40pm Nov 28, 2013 6:40pm
Think we'll probably pull back now to the 102 level , maybe go as low as 101.76 by tonight.
  • #39,957
  • Nov 28, 2013 6:40pm Nov 28, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting xjames26
{quote} Right, start of the last day of the week, crap JPY data, so why not let's roll Higher!!!
crap jpy data?.. do you know how to read data?
  • #39,958
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:06pm Nov 28, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} So if everyone is already short...why is Yen still going down? One day maybe Yen will rise, but Yen bulls may not even profit off their opinion as market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Now I remember that you were trading FX options and you said you had to make adjustments to your position if market makes a dramatic move. Have you had to make any adjustments yet?


We might be able to attribute that to rule #6 – Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways

No, my PUT options are written at the 0.00965 strike, which equals to approximately 103.50 in spot terms and have a January 3, 2014 expiry.

The market price currently reflects a 31% chance of ending up ITM. I only wrote 2 (and 2 CALLs which are deep OTM right now) so in terms of adjustments on this specific position; I will most likely sell two 6J futures on the 0.00965 approach, essentially hedging off “any and all” losses beyond that price and planning for an ITM assignment, which is delivery of two 6J futures, which cancels out my 2 sold 6J futures.
  • #39,959
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:14pm Nov 28, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} We might be able to attribute that to rule #6 – Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways No, my PUT options are written at the 0.00965 strike, which equals to approximately 103.50 in spot terms and have a January 3, 2014 expiry. The market price currently reflects a 31% chance of ending up ITM. I only wrote 2 (and 2 CALLs which are deep OTM right now) so in terms of adjustments on this specific position; I will most likely sell two 6J futures on the 0.00965...
what's the premium you paid?
  • #39,960
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:27pm Nov 28, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting veer2010
{quote} what's the premium you paid?


You mean, what was the premium I was paid – I only sell.

I was paid 200 points for the PUTs or $500.00 USD (total) and 175 points for the CALLs or $425.00 (total). The position had a 53 DTE (Days to Expiry) on the open, so the maximum profit is approximately $925 over that span of days, if untouched and both expired OTM.

My previous post explained how I would protect on the topside, my downside risk is only exposed when we approach approximately 94.00 between now and January 3rd – no chance on that, well, the market prices it at 0.01% of ending ITM.

All in all, a low risk, low-leveraged (based on account size) trade that so far I’m very happy with.
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