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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,981
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:41pm Nov 26, 2013 4:41pm
the question is!?
December taper or not!!! some bets?
my is yes..eeheheh
  • #70,982
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:44pm Nov 26, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting mario83
{quote} if anyone interested please read explanation of US DOLLAR history as reserve currency and petrodollar rise and potential end. I just did to understand correctly information that PT just shared few hours ago. Im stunned and i just wonder what future implication it can have and makes me thing 5 times more before shorting EURUSD http://ftmdaily.com/preparing-for-th...dollar-system/ {image}
Yeah that's pretty much it, but Jerry Robinson is not exactly objective on the subject of the US Dollar.
His entire livelihood is based on peddling Anti-USD literature.

I think Wikipedia would probably be a more objective source of information on this subject.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
It doesn't go into alot of detail, but at least it is not biased information.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,983
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:47pm Nov 26, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting chess king
the question is!? December taper or not!!! some bets? my is yes..eeheheh
At best that would be a wild guess.
There are many arguments for and against, but at the end of the day, we first have to see how the data stacks up before the December FOMC meeting. So far it's not really that good, but it is mostly data from the time of the government shutdown. The really important data will come in December starting with NFP on the first Friday (Next week)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,984
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:52pm Nov 26, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} At best that would be a wild guess. There are many arguments for and against, but at the end of the day, we first have to see how the data stacks up before the December FOMC meeting. So far it's not really that good, but it is mostly data from the time of the government shutdown. The really important data will come in December starting with NFP on the first Friday (Next week)
yes...
NFP... will certainly have a lot of weight in the final decision(taper).
  • #70,985
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:38pm Nov 26, 2013 7:38pm
I think we may see a small taper in December that will occur in part to dispel some of the fears that a Yellen nomination will keep the printing press running indefinitely. The debt ceiling debate in early Feb is going to be extremely contentious and the Fed would probably like something hawkish to point to. Not sure a small taper is going to make lot of difference at this point.
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #70,986
  • Nov 27, 2013 12:57am Nov 27, 2013 12:57am
Quoting jarhead
I think we may see a small taper in December that will occur in part to dispel some of the fears that a Yellen nomination will keep the printing press running indefinitely. The debt ceiling debate in early Feb is going to be extremely contentious and the Fed would probably like something hawkish to point to. Not sure a small taper is going to make lot of difference at this point.
Good morning Jarhead.
I am compelled to share the same view. However, regardless of the political pros and cons of a taper, I believe it will be a good signal to both Wall street and Main street that the economy is doing well. Some action behind the words of late, if you will.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,987
  • Nov 27, 2013 6:59am Nov 27, 2013 6:59am
Action?
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #70,988
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:05am Nov 27, 2013 7:05am
Quoting jarhead
Action?
You forgot "Lights, camera..."

I am looking to short the Euro on completion of this correction in the 1.36x area. Could be 3650 (which I favor) or 3680, but with thin liquidity conditions and a retail crowd hell bent on picking the top, I feel conditions may be ripe for a mother of all short squeezes.. so I'm staying sidelined for now.

I'll be trading again next week and for now just watching... but if I see a low risk opportunity to enter, I will.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,989
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:12am Nov 27, 2013 7:12am
Quoting jarhead
Action?

Here the action comes
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  • #70,990
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:49am Nov 27, 2013 7:49am
Quoting gone4pips
{quote} Here the action comes {image}
Good one.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,991
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:50pm Nov 27, 2013 5:50pm
The short squeeze on Cable and the stop hunt on Euro today weren't enough

I don't see the Euro going much further north, but Cable has potential for a couple more hundred pips to as high as 1.6560 before a retest of the 1.5900 support and probable extention down to 1.55xx

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EW Count probabilities for Cable
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,992
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:55pm Nov 27, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The short squeeze on Cable and the stop hunt on Euro today weren't enough I don't see the Euro going much further north, but Cable has potential for a couple more hundred pips to as high as 1.6560 before a retest of the 1.5900 support and probable extention down to 1.55xx {image} EW Count probabilities for Cable {image}
PT, do you think the EUR rebounds are just stop hunting? I can't make sense of the PA. Looking at DXY as well; I thought it was building some type of pennant/flag, but now not so sure. I'm starting to wonder if this whole drop was just a pullback in a longer term bull move as opposed to a trend change...
  • #70,993
  • Nov 27, 2013 9:48pm Nov 27, 2013 9:48pm
Good morning PT. From your vantage point, what do you see happening politically in the US in next few months, particularly concerning Obamacare and the new Senate rules governing the filibuster? I think things are going to start a steep slide downhill after the first of the year. Most of the mainstream press isn't reporting it, but I've never seen unrest and uncertainty like going on now. Also think the dollar is going to be choppy and relative weak until Obamacare is resolved and it becomes clear how the November elections are going to go. I am adjusting my trades. Doing well on Yen and OK on Euro. Underwater on cable. Thanks
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #70,994
  • Nov 28, 2013 2:19am Nov 28, 2013 2:19am
Quoting Enzough
{quote} PT, do you think the EUR rebounds are just stop hunting? I can't make sense of the PA. Looking at DXY as well; I thought it was building some type of pennant/flag, but now not so sure. I'm starting to wonder if this whole drop was just a pullback in a longer term bull move as opposed to a trend change...
No the Euro is not JUST Stop hunting, but yesterday it seemed to be. This is more about USD weakness on a corrective pullback. How far or long that correction continues is the unknown, but it should not last too long. Of course it is all data dependent, but so far it is the USD that has the most pronounced bullish structure both technically and fundamentally. Therefore, as soon as the USD is ready to fly, we'll see the Euro come back down. Another risk for Euro bulls is the fact that the ECB has something up their sleeve for the next meeting next week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,995
  • Nov 28, 2013 2:21am Nov 28, 2013 2:21am
Quoting jarhead
Good morning PT. From your vantage point, what do you see happening politically in the US in next few months, particularly concerning Obamacare and the new Senate rules governing the filibuster? I think things are going to start a steep slide downhill after the first of the year. Most of the mainstream press isn't reporting it, but I've never seen unrest and uncertainty like going on now. Also think the dollar is going to be choppy and relative weak until Obamacare is resolved and it becomes clear how the November elections are going to go. I am...
The morons in Washington already tried the bluff and Obama called it. So it's not going to happen again, especially since the house will be having elections later in the year. It will be political suicide for the Republicans to pull the same crap as in October. As such, this time around, there will be a quicker solution.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,996
  • Nov 28, 2013 2:25am Nov 28, 2013 2:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} No the Euro is not JUST Stop hunting, but yesterday it seemed to be. This is more about USD weakness on a corrective pullback. How far or long that correction continues is the unknown, but it should not last too long. Of course it is all data dependent, but so far it is the USD that has the most pronounced bullish structure both technically and fundamentally. Therefore, as soon as the USD is ready to fly, we'll see the Euro come back down. Another risk for Euro bulls is the fact that the ECB has something up their sleeve for the next meeting...
PT, WHEN WILL DAT BE?
  • #70,997
  • Nov 28, 2013 2:29am Nov 28, 2013 2:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
The short squeeze on Cable and the stop hunt on Euro today weren't enough I don't see the Euro going much further north, but Cable has potential for a couple more hundred pips to as high as 1.6560 before a retest of the 1.5900 support and probable extention down to 1.55xx {image} EW Count probabilities for Cable {image}

what ur view in Ej?????
do u show any chart according to EW for Ej????
  • #70,998
  • Nov 28, 2013 2:35am Nov 28, 2013 2:35am
euro unemploment increese so eu fall down
  • #70,999
  • Nov 28, 2013 3:10am Nov 28, 2013 3:10am
Quoting Nobleactor
{quote} PT, WHEN WILL DAT BE?
Next week we have the ECB on Thursday and NFP on Friday.
From those two events we will know if the time is sooner or later.
As I said, it all depends on data and CB actions.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,000
  • Nov 28, 2013 3:11am Nov 28, 2013 3:11am
Quoting razaali
{quote} what ur view in Ej????? do u show any chart according to EW for Ej????
No I am sorry. I do not have an EW count for E/J, but I do see it topping somewhere before 140.00... Maybe even here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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