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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,841
  • Nov 24, 2013 12:15am Nov 24, 2013 12:15am
Quoting card
I wonder what the affect of China's new air defense zone will be on U/J tomorrow.
If any, probably bullish, be it from investors pulling out assets, our Japan buying more F-35s
  • #39,842
  • Nov 24, 2013 1:12am Nov 24, 2013 1:12am
I have a sell order from 101, should I stop it tomorrow when the market start or waiting for some down?
  • #39,843
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:56am Nov 24, 2013 5:56am
Hi Guys … first post so I decided to lay my (not so big ones) on the line with ….USD/JPY…… target 102.5 by let say late Thursday …. been long since the 20th @ 100.2











Naturally for my first post I reserve the right to claim TYPO if she goes south ……….





Cheers … J
  • #39,844
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:59am Nov 24, 2013 9:59am
Hi there guys,

4h, are we in a high confluence area? (See pic below)

Current area: Andrews pitchfork + 161.8F last swing low-high + seems like price can not go further

Possible TP area:
a) Around 100.760, 38.2F of last swing low-high + 127F of previous one + ¿Maybe pitchfork's median line? (TP1?)

b) Around 100.400, last resistance turned into support + median line (needs a quick fall from actual price) + very probably 35EMA support (yellow line)

I know it would be a counter-trend trade, but what do you think guys?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-h4-alpari-uk-ltd.png Size: 44 KB
  • #39,845
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:12pm Nov 24, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Log chart of the USDJPY going way back, interesting cycles, but showing strong resistance ahead. {image}
Interesting to note that even the Japanese stock market crash @ 1990 does not show up as much movement.

I believe there has been a change in the fundamentals which will become apparent soon, or not. If we see 102 this week that breaks the downtrend.

The fundamentals which have changed are that Japanese power generation has shifted from nuclear to oil-based. That shift will significantly affect the balance of trade. Another change is that Japanese industry has had to move offshore to protect itself from the strengthening Yen. At the moment they still retain the technological world edge, German and American expertise, cheaper expertise, may affect that soon.
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  • #39,846
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:21pm Nov 24, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting mima
{quote} 103.7 is closest target on my chart...
Hiya, you been hiding for a while. Or just off the news threads until recently?

UJ has to break 101.50 before your target comes into view. This week is a possible turning point. There are other indicators which suggest that the carry trade may re-start - personally I can't see that just yet until some interest rates start to go up.
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  • #39,847
  • Nov 24, 2013 6:58pm Nov 24, 2013 6:58pm
Can't believe I didn't pull the trigger at the low.

Buy it while it's hot.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,848
  • Nov 24, 2013 7:36pm Nov 24, 2013 7:36pm
Adjust my 102.5 target from late.Thursday to tonight the way things are going at the moment
  • #39,849
  • Nov 24, 2013 8:17pm Nov 24, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting jamesph61
Adjust my 102.5 target from late.Thursday to tonight the way things are going at the moment
The next serious resistance is around 103.5, I believe. Don't get out too soon, just use trailing stops.
  • #39,850
  • Nov 24, 2013 8:58pm Nov 24, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting Jexter
{quote} The next serious resistance is around 103.5, I believe. Don't get out too soon, just use trailing stops.
Cheers jexter .... If she moves at this rate no problem ... May take 60% of the table and let the rest ride ..... But she still gott'a get there :-)
  • #39,851
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:08am Nov 25, 2013 1:08am
Quoting ashaab
USD/JPY has confirmed its improving technical structure by moving above the resistance at 100.61. The short-term technical configuration is positive as long as the support at 99.57 (19 November 2013 low) holds. An initial support can be found at 100.31 (intraday low). A resistance is at 101.53. In the medium-term, the break of the symmetrical triangle favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 103.74 (22 May 2013 high). In the longer term, the technical configuration since the 22 May peak at 103.74 looks like a pause within an underlying...
The USDJPY trades near its first target
Twitter : @Autofxtrading
  • #39,852
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:26am Nov 25, 2013 2:26am
Quoting zusch
Can't believe I didn't pull the trigger at the low. Buy it while it's hot.
....can't believe I went to bed...
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  • #39,853
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:49am Nov 25, 2013 2:49am
whats causing this sudden drop in UJ the last 30 min?
  • #39,854
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:51am Nov 25, 2013 2:51am
Quoting iamkjb
Some further thoughts, daily chart. Still consolidating within a bullish pennant, with a breakout from the 'inner' pennant this week. I have shown an UTL in the pennant, which is not strictly valid, because the current upswing may not yet be complete, but it is just there as a 'possible/maybe'. The AB=CD move completed, suggesting a bearish retracement is imminent. However, the high of 8th July has not been tested yet. A 127.2% fib extension of AB would be at 101.908, breaking the previous high. A 161.8% fib extension of AB at 103.57 would possibly...
Hit the 127.2% extension almost to the pip.

Based on current pa I am looking for the next extension at 103.102 (not 103.57 as incorrectly stated previously) but my target would first be to test the 103.o level.
  • #39,855
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:57am Nov 25, 2013 2:57am
Hello

Sounds good 103 I take some profit

I had 102.5 for some 103.5

can't be to greedy

the YEN masters like to drop a few turds

on the peasants
  • #39,856
  • Nov 25, 2013 9:37am Nov 25, 2013 9:37am
so the bulls gone to sleep now? whats going on here? I though 103 was the target
  • #39,857
  • Nov 25, 2013 9:40am Nov 25, 2013 9:40am
Quoting kweiss10
so the bulls gone to sleep now? whats going on here? I though 103 was the target
Price never goes in a straight line.
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  • #39,858
  • Nov 25, 2013 9:45am Nov 25, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Price never goes in a straight line.

true but we have a row of bad US data and then this US data causes some down fall. wierd
  • #39,859
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:44pm Nov 25, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} true but we have a row of bad US data and then this US data causes some down fall. wierd
PA is consolidating in the 101.60 - 101.90 range. Which ~ 40 pips higher than last week's close.

Later we have data from Japan, that may shake things up a bit.....
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  • #39,860
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:04pm Nov 25, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting Exodus
....Later we have data from Japan, that may shake things up a bit.....
Right but there is nothing new to hear .....weak yen...Data will be ignored if needed to keep yen weak...
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