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  • #855,821
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:12am Nov 24, 2013 10:12am
If oil moves lower on this Iran deal, especially Brent.... that shapes up for an even lower inflation print Friday. Any thoughts?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #855,822
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:14am Nov 24, 2013 10:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} does it have too? latest data from August 3013 is up almost 19% ytd. the u.s. production curve is up since Sept, 2008 low..that means the u.s. is producing 51% more oil since Sept. 2008. (1990/91 levels, where was oil then, add inflation and whatever) unless my math is off.. London markets are heavily tilted in oil production. go back to pre crises 2008, match the Cushing Ok. levels with news release and the eu movement. personally i hold for the 40 year curve to turn around. Iran oil is just a pimple on the ass if whats happening in the...
My thought as well. If the Crude fluctuates out side of this $1-3 range could be something else not due to the sanction relief (oil being one included) in agreement to curtail nuclear development. There're many ways to circumvent this region one of them is the exchange rate of Rial but let's not get into that to avoid unnecessary sparks
  • #855,823
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:15am Nov 24, 2013 10:15am
Quoting Citiboy
If oil moves lower on this Iran deal, especially Brent.... that shapes up for an even lower inflation print Friday. Any thoughts?
oil prices take 3-6 months to filter through the inflation numbers.
  • #855,824
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:21am Nov 24, 2013 10:21am
Quoting Citiboy
If oil moves lower on this Iran deal, especially Brent.... that shapes up for an even lower inflation print Friday. Any thoughts?
less threat to raise. and less reason for oil to rise. a double edge. easy money produces more oil investment and more oil produces more supply. they cancel each other out.. so then we look at who benefits the most with cheaper oil. add in shipping cost and its a no brainier.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,825
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:22am Nov 24, 2013 10:22am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} oil prices take 3-6 months to filter through the inflation numbers.

it takes years
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,826
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:22am Nov 24, 2013 10:22am
Quoting Citiboy
If oil moves lower on this Iran deal, especially Brent.... that shapes up for an even lower inflation print Friday. Any thoughts?
My thought would be good stuff, I am short. That means we really aught to get a gap down. Although I am not familiar with brent enough to know if it gaps.
  • #855,827
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:29am Nov 24, 2013 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it takes years
well it is case-by-case.

07/08 it was quite quick, Japan this year has been 6 months or so.

UK has been a little longer.

however Macro theory would suggest inflation expectations are more important than actual inflation, and the correlation between 5Y breakevens and CL is evident
  • #855,828
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:30am Nov 24, 2013 10:30am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} That means you really aught to go get a job. No free lunches here.
Bad little kid moved into my neighborhood


A bad little kid moved into my neighborhood
He won't do nothing right just sitting down and looks so good
He don't want to go to school and learn to read and write
Just sits around the house and plays the rock and roll music all night
Well, he put some tacks on teachers chair
Puts some gum in little girl's hair
Hey, junior, behave yourself
  • #855,829
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:32am Nov 24, 2013 10:32am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} well it is case-by-case. 07/08 it was quite quick, Japan this year has been 6 months or so. UK has been a little longer. however Macro theory would suggest inflation expectations are more important than actual inflation, and the correlation between 5Y breakevens and CL is evident

ok.. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7962.pdf
some were talking about the crash before there was a crash..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,830
  • Edited 11:06am Nov 24, 2013 10:53am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} My thought would be good stuff, I am short. That means we really aught to get a gap down. Although I am not familiar with brent enough to know if it gaps.
With such news, you are short but if there will be no opening disparity from closing you will say also have long.

I long from last week.

Here it is January 2014 contracts before the facts.

Attached Image
  • #855,831
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:57am Nov 24, 2013 10:57am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} With such news, you are short but if there will be no opening disparity from closing you will say also have long. I long from last week. Here it is before the facts. {image}

he is not the only voodoo priest.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,832
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:20am Nov 24, 2013 11:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} he is not the only voodoo priest.
No voodoo necessary. I have an older post in this thread stating I was short.

But don't get excited, the price might still go up. Regardless I am short biased on technical reasons.
  • #855,833
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:27am Nov 24, 2013 11:27am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
Regardless I am short biased on technical reasons.
What are these "Technical Reasons"?

Keep in mind, a Picture says a thousand words...(ish).
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #855,834
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:37am Nov 24, 2013 11:37am
Quoting attila
I see it like this. And I have another target up at 4172 (off the chart at the moment. literally) {image} As for immediate action, it could pull back a little but not lower than 3500, before the real b/o (blue arrows). {image}
I'm also short by technical reasons. I will be long but first I expect a little retracement to 1.3500 similar to the 2nd image of attila.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #855,835
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:38am Nov 24, 2013 11:38am
Are you muppets at it again?
  • #855,836
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:39am Nov 24, 2013 11:39am
Quoting horuxito
{quote} I'm also short by technical reasons. I will be long but first I expect a little retracement to 1.3500 similar to the 2nd image of attila.
This is a new thing I'm trying. I have no history with it.. The red targets are also time based.. We'll see if it works out..
  • #855,837
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:40am Nov 24, 2013 11:40am
Gap Up or Gap Down who knows
  • #855,838
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:47am Nov 24, 2013 11:47am
Quoting macsoj
Gap Up or Gap Down who knows
you are exactly right.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #855,839
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:48am Nov 24, 2013 11:48am
Quoting horuxito
{quote} I'm also short by technical reasons. I will be long but first I expect a little retracement to 1.3500 similar to the 2nd image of attila.

So, are you looking to SHORT to 1.35 or looking to take longs at 1.35?

There is a lot of ambiguity in your statement and if you cannot define your idea of the trend, how can you expect to play it?

What are the technical reasons you are short? With price moving Higher, last week closing a bullish candle, what are the TECHNICALS that say SELL?

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, you just flipped your idea 3 times in 2 sentences.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #855,840
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:49am Nov 24, 2013 11:49am
Quoting mima
{quote} you are exactly right.

This kinda thing really is an issue with the Twitter/Facebook generation, isn't it?

I don't know what to say, but feel like I should be saying something....

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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