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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,881
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:36pm Nov 22, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting NZ Chris
Sure looks like a nice chart PT.
haha. Yes, charts are always nice before they are actually painted. Unfortunately, drawing projection lines on a chart doesn't make it a reality. but I'm keeping the faith for now. I'm good until 1.3630. A daily close above there and I'll have to eat crow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,882
  • Nov 22, 2013 3:50pm Nov 22, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} haha. Yes, charts are always nice before they are actually painted. Unfortunately, drawing projection lines on a chart doesn't make it a reality. but I'm keeping the faith for now. I'm good until 1.3630. A daily close above there and I'll have to eat crow.
humm..3398 had the strength (50) of closed ... reaching 3665 I give up the short..
  • #70,883
  • Nov 22, 2013 3:54pm Nov 22, 2013 3:54pm
DAILY..
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  • #70,884
  • Nov 22, 2013 3:58pm Nov 22, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} haha. Yes, charts are always nice before they are actually painted. Unfortunately, drawing projection lines on a chart doesn't make it a reality. but I'm keeping the faith for now. I'm good until 1.3630. A daily close above there and I'll have to eat crow.
I had never heard this expression...nice one..
  • #70,885
  • Nov 23, 2013 2:29am Nov 23, 2013 2:29am
I am starting to like Dean Popplewell. He writes like me

Week in FX Europe – EUR On The Road To Nowhere Fast
http://www.marketpulse.com/20131122/...-nowhere-fast/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,886
  • Nov 23, 2013 3:32am Nov 23, 2013 3:32am
ECB's Praet warns of deflationary pressures in euro zone
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9AL0DQ20131122
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,887
  • Nov 23, 2013 3:41am Nov 23, 2013 3:41am
Is the Eurozone Still Facing Deflationary Pressures?
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/i...tml/?a=viewall
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,888
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:27am Nov 23, 2013 8:27am
Sir PT

The S&P 500

Long range forecast & Eur implications would be as per index corrections always are

Daily
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  • #70,889
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:33am Nov 23, 2013 8:33am
US Dollar Basket :-)
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  • #70,890
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:43am Nov 23, 2013 8:43am
EURUSD Daily
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  • #70,891
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:40am Nov 23, 2013 9:40am
Well, its clear now - 3290 lows was the begining of the last swan-song for the euro up until roundabouts of 1.4. I'm very interested in how long this up-trend will last.. Maybe taper is sheduled for December and that is the reason why Euro (and Pound) is so eager to finish it's bullish monthly correction, or maybe developments will last till the late spring..? WHat ever the time table is, shorts at/above 1.4 will have almost 4000 pip potential in next Q/M swing down.

Aussie and Gold going for lover low on M/W tf's. And Gold promising a huge technical bullish correction after that. It's beginning to look like some crisis (risk) is comming? With strong gold and strong dollar? Maybe just profits shifted from stocks to gold...WHo knows what the reasons will be, but technicals starting to show very clear picture.

By the way - ES showing potential to go above 1850 mark with 1870's as highly probable (well the only level up there) turning point. Just technicals arent precise here, because I have to use these inacurrate web-charts, and ofcourse because its generally in a no man's land of historic emptiness..
69
  • #70,892
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:45am Nov 23, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Likerty
Well, its clear now - 3290 lows was the begining of the last swan-song for the euro up until roundabouts of 1.4. I'm very interested in how long this up-trend will last.. Maybe taper is sheduled for December and that is the reason why Euro (and Pound) is so eager to finish it's bullish monthly correction, or maybe developments will last till the late spring..? WHat ever the time table is, shorts at/above 1.4 will have almost 4000 pip potential in next Q/M swing down. Aussie and Gold going for lover low on M/W tf's. And Gold promising a huge technical...
We'll just see what happens....last week everybody was screaming 1.20. For the sake of one of my new positions I hope you're right though, it'll depend on next week's fundy news.
  • #70,893
  • Nov 23, 2013 10:31am Nov 23, 2013 10:31am
Quoting Likerty
Well, its clear now - 3290 lows was the begining of the last swan-song for the euro up until roundabouts of 1.4. I'm very interested in how long this up-trend will last.. Maybe taper is sheduled for December and that is the reason why Euro (and Pound) is so eager to finish it's bullish monthly correction, or maybe developments will last till the late spring..? WHat ever the time table is, shorts at/above 1.4 will have almost 4000 pip potential in next Q/M swing down. Aussie and Gold going for lover low on M/W tf's. And Gold promising a huge technical...
Very interesting, was having similar thoughts. I have 83-84 for au and 1069 or so for gold targets. That is current, still evolving. EU not behaving yet. Cable potentially offering as well.

Any thoughts on UJ? That would be the ultimate barometer of crisis/risk no?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,894
  • Nov 23, 2013 10:55am Nov 23, 2013 10:55am
So you guys see more upside from here? I would agree if 1.3550-1.3580 breaks out higher. 1.3625-1.3650 would be the next area of resistance. Hoping the channel with the large red lines will hold and eventually turn lower. Any thoughts?
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #70,895
  • Nov 23, 2013 11:06am Nov 23, 2013 11:06am
Mad dash for European trash has been trade of year
By Robin Wigglesworth

Eurozone government bonds returned almost 5% over year
One of the best trades of 2013 has been a mad dash for European trash. Perhaps trash is a tad unfair, but eurozone crisis countries have certainly benefited from a radical reversal in investor sentiment towards the region.
Eurozone government bonds have returned almost 5 per cent over the past 12 months, while US Treasuries have lost investors money. The Eurofirst 300 is now only marginally cheaper than the S&P 500 on a forward price-to-earnings basis, and near its 25-year average. After a remarkable rally, Spanish stocks are more expensive than Swedish shares from a p/e perspective, UBS equity analysts point out.
But there is an awful lot of optimism baked into the price of European stocks, which could swiftly dissipate if the tentative turnround of 2013 does not deepen into a proper economic recovery next year. That still looks doubtful – something Thursday’s purchasing managers index data underscored.
After six straight rises until September, the eurozone PMI dipped for a second month in November. Germany remains robust, but France’s PMI is consistent with an economic contraction, and the eurozone periphery was also weak.
It is too early to fret about a recessionary relapse for the eurozone, but it is clear that any recovery is not going to be the stuff of economic legend. Larry Summers caused a stir over the weekend by arguing that the world faced a “secular stagnation”. Europe could well become the exemplar of this.
Admittedly, by other valuation metrics Europe still looks cheap. Eurozone shares trade at about 1.7 times their book value, compared to 2.5 times for US stocks. Compare prices to 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings – the Shiller p/e – and Europe is 36 per cent cheaper, Morgan Stanley estimates.
If corporate earnings recover then the recent bout of investor faith will be justified and the rally could continue. But the scope for disappointment is considerable.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #70,896
  • Nov 23, 2013 11:16am Nov 23, 2013 11:16am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Very interesting, was having similar thoughts. I have 83-84 for au and 1069 or so for gold targets. That is current, still evolving. EU not behaving yet. Cable potentially offering as well. Any thoughts on UJ? That would be the ultimate barometer of crisis/risk no?
U/J
thoughts.. breakout 103.73 .. . and were looking at 110 ...
  • #70,897
  • Nov 23, 2013 11:23am Nov 23, 2013 11:23am
Quoting chess king
{quote} U/J thoughts.. breakout 103.73 .. . and were looking at 110 ...
Off top of my head, I have 103.10, 106.45, 110, then....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,898
  • Nov 23, 2013 11:34am Nov 23, 2013 11:34am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Off top of my head, I have 103.10, 106.45, 110, then....
with weekly chart..and small steps I have 105.00/50 ,106.80,108.00, 110....
  • #70,899
  • Nov 23, 2013 11:49am Nov 23, 2013 11:49am
Quoting chess king
{quote} with weekly chart..and small steps I have 105.00/50 ,106.80,108.00, 110....
sorry I forgot 103.
  • #70,900
  • Nov 23, 2013 12:53pm Nov 23, 2013 12:53pm
Another piece by Dean Popplewell
EUR Moves Not Just On Words
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1857...for_1_33&ifp=0
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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