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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,821
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:25pm Nov 22, 2013 2:25pm
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...y_Object_1.png




Meanwhile something out of the real trading world:



Statistics from a large retail trader firm (250.000 investors):

73% of retail traders are short EUR/USD. – EUR is rising instead
81% are short GBP/USD – GBP/USD is rising instead
45% are long USD/JPY – USD/JPY is rising
79% are long USD/CHF – USD/CHF is falling instead
78% are short EUR/JPY – EUR/JPY is instead rising
______________________________________________________________
Conclusion: retail traders are principle brokerages best friends as principal brokers are making money of retail traders with their B Book (making money of their own clients being on the wrong side of the trade)


Advice: leave it to professionals to trade your money. Retail traders are losing diminishing their accounts latest after 3-6 months trading WITHOUT experience!
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #39,822
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:31pm Nov 22, 2013 2:31pm
I don't understand why so many are keen to anticipate a reversal, only to get buggered in the process. For what, a few extra pips? Just let it ride, and reverse your position when the signals are actually there..
  • #39,823
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:40pm Nov 22, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting Jexter
I don't understand why so many are keen to anticipate a reversal, only to get buggered in the process. For what, a few extra pips? Just let it ride, and reverse your position when the signals are actually there..


Its not anticipation so much as taking high risk reward situations. You might lose a bunch of times trying to pick the top, but if you're specifically looking for very high risk reward situations it does make sense. Tudor Jones talks about the same type of strategy in market wizards, if he believes in it he keeps trying until the fundamentals change.


I consider myself a premier market opportunist. That means I develop an idea on the market and pursue it from a very-low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly been proven wrong, or until I change my viewpoint.
-Paul Tudor Jones
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #39,824
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:41pm Nov 22, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} How long have you been trading bro?
Since 2006.
  • #39,825
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:45pm Nov 22, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I think it is logical to have a longer term bullish outlook for Yen when looking at the 40 years of trend. However the price action does not currently support that opinion so being short right now is not logical (good thing you're only half short). Some big Yen bear trap may be setting up, but price action will tell you when it has been sprung.
I agree. However, price action only works on short term charts. As in, up to 4h charts. I ignore this for the most part. I agree that it looks like it will still go up. But, I've got some more money to lose before I call it quits. So, I'm holding on to my small short. I will reassess the situation on Monday.
  • #39,826
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:47pm Nov 22, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting MisterTrader
{image} Meanwhile something out of the real trading world: Statistics from a large retail trader firm (250.000 investors): 73% of retail traders are short EUR/USD. – EUR is rising instead 81% are short GBP/USD – GBP/USD is rising instead 45% are long USD/JPY – USD/JPY is rising 79% are long USD/CHF – USD/CHF is falling instead 78% are short EUR/JPY – EUR/JPY is instead rising ______________________________________________________________ Conclusion: retail traders are principle brokerages best friends as principal brokers are making money of retail...


The metrics you lay out are subjective, but I know where you’re going with this and your right.

Interactive Brokers (IB) is a true ECN spot forex broker and 56% of accounts (that traded spot forex) were not profitable last quarter (Q3 2013).

The rest were all between 64.9 and 77.7% in terms of non-profitable accounts in Q3.

This data was submitted to the National Futures Association (NFA) regulator.
  • #39,827
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:49pm Nov 22, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Its not anticipation so much as taking high risk reward situations. You might lose a bunch of times trying to pick the top, but if you're specifically looking for very high risk reward situations it does make sense. Tudor Jones talks about the same type of strategy in market wizards, if he believes in it he keeps trying until the fundamentals change. I consider myself a premier market opportunist. That means I develop an idea on the market and pursue it from a very-low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly been proven wrong, or until I...
Same with Jim Rogers. He usually times it incorrectly. But he keeps trying till he changes his mind.

I ran across Jim last year. I work in the industry and I think he was there for an interview. It took me a while to recognize him and by then, he was gone. I really wish I could have shaken his hand. I learnt so much from him!
  • #39,828
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:05pm Nov 22, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting card
{quote} I agree. However, price action only works on short term charts. As in, up to 4h charts. I ignore this for the most part. I agree that it looks like it will still go up. But, I've got some more money to lose before I call it quits. So, I'm holding on to my small short. I will reassess the situation on Monday.
I'd disagree and say that any pattern/setup that works on 4hr chart will work on weekly & monthly.

For next week I believe we will see another new high, the better question is how much retrace can we expect? U/J hasn't been able to put together 3 green daily candles in a row for a while. I'm thinking we could bottom at 101, or we may have to retrace all the way back to 100.66. I highly doubt we see 100 next week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,829
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:36pm Nov 22, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I'd disagree and say that any pattern/setup that works on 4hr chart will work on weekly & monthly. For next week I believe we will see another new high, the better question is how much retrace can we expect? U/J hasn't been able to put together 3 green daily candles in a row for a while. I'm thinking we could bottom at 101, or we may have to retrace all the way back to 100.66. I highly doubt we see 100 next week.
I'm positioned such that I won't be hurting even if U/J goes up to 102 next week. I will get out and look for a better short opportunity. BOJ easing is fully priced in at this point. Unless there is something new, I don't see a reason for it to go up much more.
  • #39,830
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:19am Nov 23, 2013 4:19am
Matter of time when it falls. Price totally got stuck in resistance. Background shows only weakness, I don't see any signs of strength. Have some shorts opened.
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  • #39,831
  • Nov 23, 2013 6:15am Nov 23, 2013 6:15am
Quoting tomx
Matter of time when it falls. Price totally got stuck in resistance. Background shows only weakness, I don't see any signs of strength. Have some shorts opened. {image}
short too with 4 small positions BE at 100.82 / TP 100.45
just do it
  • #39,832
  • Nov 23, 2013 7:37am Nov 23, 2013 7:37am
Quoting tomx
Matter of time when it falls. Price totally got stuck in resistance. Background shows only weakness, I don't see any signs of strength. Have some shorts opened. {image}
103.7 is closest target on my chart...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #39,833
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:35am Nov 23, 2013 8:35am
Watching for breakout and retest to get long this baby. Probably wont do much until US home sales on monday
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #39,834
  • Nov 23, 2013 1:18pm Nov 23, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting tomx
Matter of time when it falls. Price totally got stuck in resistance. Background shows only weakness, I don't see any signs of strength. Have some shorts opened. {image}

your chart shows typical progression of trend not weakness.Price is consolidating.If Aussie dives lower expect UJ to continue go up.
Volume is not centralized on FX hence your feed is only fraction of data from your broker order flow.Picture could be different on true market level.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #39,835
  • Nov 23, 2013 1:56pm Nov 23, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting Citiboy
Everyone and their mother is bearish on JPY.
Nah, am fooking bullish like in the next two-three years. Just waiting for this mofo to drop properly, so I can load.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39,836
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:47pm Nov 23, 2013 5:47pm
Log chart of the USDJPY going way back, interesting cycles, but showing strong resistance ahead.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY cycle log.png Size: 256 KB
  • #39,837
  • Nov 23, 2013 6:14pm Nov 23, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Log chart of the USDJPY going way back, interesting cycles, but showing strong resistance ahead. {image}
This is a chart that supports a logical bullish outlook on Yen. However, if you look at the price action we have been "testing" this major resistance for a long time. I believe if U/J was destined to go down, it would have gone down already. Instead it seems we have eaten through this strong resistance and now need to see higher levels.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,838
  • Nov 23, 2013 6:24pm Nov 23, 2013 6:24pm
In reply to retail positioning and being losers, its how the retail world is on just about every move. They hold on to losers longer and take profit shorter.

pic is where Oanda's clients are long on EU at, mostly 1.35 area, placing buy stops above the 11/21 high at 1.3577-80

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios
Attached Image
  • #39,839
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:27pm Nov 23, 2013 9:27pm
I see the nearest resistance for USD / JPY is 103, 200:
Attached Image
  • #39,840
  • Nov 23, 2013 10:43pm Nov 23, 2013 10:43pm
I wonder what the affect of China's new air defense zone will be on U/J tomorrow.
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