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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #70,841
  • Edited 5:43pm Nov 20, 2013 5:20pm | Edited 5:43pm
Hiii...good morning at least in my country hehe..
i like your picture image,its seem like my situation now.i have a wrong position.i have 2 hedging on EU.look at my chart,and now i can not think clearly.would you help me please ?.what i have to do on this situation.until now my profit are $135,but now my floating is $185.i use lot 0,1.

i'm sorry if my language doesn't good.
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  • #70,842
  • Nov 20, 2013 9:31pm Nov 20, 2013 9:31pm
Looking at the calendar for tomorrow, French manufacturing PMI expected has been lowered to the range of the last three months. Germany's has been raised to a six month high. US PPI expected was lowered to -.2, which would be new six month low. With the recent strength of the Euro and the drop in GDP, I believe that the German PMI will miss. Also, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has been blowing out expectations yet tomorrow's expected is only 15.8, despite coming in at 19.8 and 22.3 the last two months. Today's bearish engulfing candle eclipsed the last three days...


Short from 1.343, stop at break even but may move it up 1.346x.
  • #70,843
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:54am Nov 21, 2013 1:54am
Quoting moreno
Hiii...good morning at least in my country hehe.. i like your picture image,its seem like my situation now.i have a wrong position.i have 2 hedging on EU.look at my chart,and now i can not think clearly.would you help me please ?.what i have to do on this situation.until now my profit are $135,but now my floating is $185.i use lot 0,1. i'm sorry if my language doesn't good. {image} {image}
If you are already "hedged", then it may be a good idea to leave it like that until we see how the news plays out today and which short term direction the Euro will choose.

In the mid term the Euro is bearish vs the USD. Actually very bearish. The tide is turning.

Of course this is only my opinion. I could be wrong. I have been wrong before and I am sure I will be wrong again, but as long as I am right more than I am wrong, I will be okay
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,844
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:55am Nov 21, 2013 1:55am
Quoting Enzough
Looking at the calendar for tomorrow, French manufacturing PMI expected has been lowered to the range of the last three months. Germany's has been raised to a six month high. US PPI expected was lowered to -.2, which would be new six month low. With the recent strength of the Euro and the drop in GDP, I believe that the German PMI will miss. Also, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has been blowing out expectations yet tomorrow's expected is only 15.8, despite coming in at 19.8 and 22.3 the last two months. Today's bearish engulfing candle eclipsed...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,845
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:05am Nov 21, 2013 2:05am
Bad news from France
not let's see what the German will give us
I think bad news from Germany will set the fear of negative deposit rate to the highest level
  • #70,846
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:20am Nov 21, 2013 2:20am
Quoting Evanescence
Bad news from France not let's see what the German will give us I think bad news from Germany will set the fear of negative deposit rate to the highest level
Agreed. Well we can at least say that overall EZ PMI will be a miss. Germany could go either way, but based on last time's miss and the optimistic number expected this time, it will probably be a miss also.

Here's what the day looks like for EZ and US. Certainly an interesting day ahead.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,847
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:27am Nov 21, 2013 2:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Agreed. Well we can at least say that overall EZ PMI will be a miss. Germany could go either way, but based on last time's miss and the optimistic number expected this time, it will probably be a miss also. Here's what the day looks like for EZ and US. Certainly an interesting day ahead. {image}
Howzit Sir PT

May I post in your house?

Regards,

J
  • #70,848
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:30am Nov 21, 2013 2:30am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Howzit Sir PT May I post in your house? Regards, J
Jimmy, my Jacobite warrior. You are welcome here any time. Glad to have you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,849
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:31am Nov 21, 2013 2:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Agreed. Well we can at least say that overall EZ PMI will be a miss. Germany could go either way, but based on last time's miss and the optimistic number expected this time, it will probably be a miss also. Here's what the day looks like for EZ and US. Certainly an interesting day ahead. {image}
Well it looks like German PMIs are positive again. I wouldn't use that as a reason to go long the Euro, but it certainly puts a damper on the shorts.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,850
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:35am Nov 21, 2013 2:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Jimmy, my Jacobite warrior. You are welcome here any time. Glad to have you.
I look forward to it.
  • #70,851
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:50am Nov 21, 2013 3:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well I know you're on a bit of a rant here so I'll allow you that, but I'm sure that when you cool down a bit you'll agree that when we say or imply that something is already priced in, we don't mean that it is fully priced in.... more like 80%. Regardless of the above, in regards to the Euro, this one is definitely a mix of BS and false hope, so I'll certainly agree with you on your comments... but only where the Euro is concerned. By the way Lumesh, I haven't forgotten about the mods to the S/D indie. Still in the works. Not as easy...

Oh no, i wasn't trying to be a dick i meant that I AM SURPRISED too that the fundamentals can be this much disconnected with the price. And i am not talking about general fundamentals but the short term money markets, ECB and econ data combined that cannot be misinterpreted. And this is especially evident in the eur currency market.


thanks for the indi update
  • #70,852
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:24am Nov 21, 2013 4:24am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} It amazes me how the market has been extremely positive about the euro. ....what a bunch of BS
I have had the same feeling, but isn't the market unpreditable most of the times?

I think many giants rushed down from over 1.37 a month ago who are re-establishing some up positions. But that just hinders the down move.
  • #70,853
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:24am Nov 21, 2013 5:24am
I'm still waiting for Euro/USD parity
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,854
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:37am Nov 21, 2013 5:37am
Draghi says don't try to infer negative deposit rates
  • #70,855
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:16am Nov 21, 2013 6:16am
Quoting Enzough
Draghi says don't try to infer negative deposit rates
In October he also said that a rate cut wasn't being considered yet.

The ECB needs to start publishing minutes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,856
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:22am Nov 21, 2013 6:22am
To me this looks like a nice opportunity for a short. Probably from 1.3486
I will be waiting for NY to tell me if I should enter.
E/U H1
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,857
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:33am Nov 21, 2013 6:33am
Quoting RodMca
Hello all, It's been a great day banked 120 pip on EA and a further 30 shorting EJ now I'm flat on euro pairs I'm short the cable at 1.6070 and long audnzd at 1.1380 and 1.1280 so yes carry quite a hefty loss on them but will to ride them and get back my rollover rates at least I'll probably regret this but I've entered a short on NZDUSD at 0.8335 sl 0.8410 tp .80. At the moment the charts show a potential H&S as many of you will have already seen and have found strong support at the neckline of this potential head and shoulders. I now think...

NZDUSD on the neckline, AUDUSD broke through its neckline and looks set to stay below, Lets hope NZDUSD follows suit 125 pips in the green so far
  • #70,858
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:50am Nov 21, 2013 6:50am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} NZDUSD on the neckline, AUDUSD broke through its neckline and looks set to stay below, Lets hope NZDUSD follows suit 125 pips in the green so far
Well done Rod.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,859
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:26am Nov 21, 2013 10:26am
ECB’s Weidmann: European monetary policy still in crisis mode
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...n-crisis-mode/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,860
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:55am Nov 21, 2013 11:55am
Highlights from Jeffrey Lacker's speech today

  1. Earlier this year, I argued that annual GDP growth would likely be roughly 3 percent. I have since revised downward my estimate to roughly 2 percent. However, I still see room for optimism regarding our fundamental prospects, in contrast to some “stagnationists,” who see growth as becoming increasingly harder to achieve over time.
  2. Among the reasons for decreased growth estimates is a post-crisis belief among lenders that fewer consumers may be creditworthy borrowers. Compounding that, many consumers themselves have become more cautious in their spending behavior.
  3. Policy uncertainty has led some businesses to postpone possible investments.
  4. Productivity growth is unlikely to change much, averaging roughly 1 percent per year.
  5. Employment growth is hard to forecast, though it seems that it, too, will likely continue to remain close to the recent trend of 0.9 percent, perhaps slightly lower. As the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented, though, the cost of hiring may increase. In addition, in some areas there seems to be significant mismatch between the jobs needed and the skills of workers seeking opportunities.
  6. Even though the federal funds rate is effectively at the zero lower bound, this does not mean that the Fed has no tools to attempt to stimulate economic activity. It is unclear to me that further stimulus would achieve desired results, however, but it could make it more difficult for the Fed to ultimately pursue an “exit policy” from its extremely accommodative stance.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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