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  • #855,001
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:31pm Nov 20, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Greener
I think FOMC should be honest and declare that BS is the most effective tool they possess. More powerful than QE, tapering, rate cuts, intervention etc. Helicopter Ben' big lesson is that if you deprive the market of clarity and transparency, you control them. I think Bullard's worries on low inflation have been completely overlooked today.
You are right. Bs is the most effective tool they have. I don't know about the ECB as I don't know the situation in Europe (must be pretty grim I suppose), but the disconnect between the US stock market and the real economy is staggering. If they taper, the stock market will go to hell and so will people's pension plans.. Right now the sheeple are happy because of that but no jobs will be created as long as the risk of putting the capital in the market instead of making real investment (and I'm not talking about roads and bridges) bears less risk.. There is actually virtual no risk as the moral hazard is still very much in play.

After so much money pumped, the inflation is still where it is, then where is all the money? Check the casino.. That's where it is.. And when it all crashes, the market will do the correction for them regardless then that's when the biggest wealth transfer will happen. First deflation, and then hyperinflation.. Oldest trick in the book.
  • #855,002
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:36pm Nov 20, 2013 4:36pm
Laughing hard to that BS tool but didnt want to post spam. But heck NY is closed . Yep, the best most powerfull tool they posess.

Well, Attila surely you remember famous Draghis quote "I will do whatever it takes to save the Euro". Great BS tool and European stocks actually woke up for like 2 months, although ECB didnt move at all. When the heck was that? Cant remember.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #855,003
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:44pm Nov 20, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Laughing hard to that BS tool but didnt want to post spam. But heck NY is closed . Yep, the best most powerfull tool they posess. Well, Attila surely you remember famous Draghis quote "I will do whatever it takes to save the Euro". Great BS tool and European stocks actually woke up for like 2 months, although ECB didnt move at all. When the heck was that? Cant remember.
I really don't know when/what/how it'll all happen but one thing's for sure. This is not capitalism anymore, as the market has been stripped of its ability to asses value. It's so distorted it's not even funny.. I don't even want to mention all the derivatives sitting on assets nobody knows their real value anymore.. We should not care about all these as we speculate. I'm just worried about the big picture.
  • #855,004
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:01pm Nov 20, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I really don't know when/what/how it'll all happen but one thing's for sure. This is not capitalism anymore, as the market has been stripped of its ability to asses value. It's so distorted it's not even funny.. I don't even want to mention all the derivatives sitting on assets nobody knows their real value anymore.. We should not care about all these as we speculate. I'm just worried about the big picture.
I couldn't agree more.

I work in real estate (hotel real estate), and the amount of crazy bad loan portfolios I have to go through every week is outright scary. Sometimes I wonder if those who initially approved those loans were on drugs (or simply retarded) when they did so.

The sad part is, it doesn't end there. In a lot of cases they haven't adjusted the value of the underlying security (aka the hotel)...or have done so but pressured the valuers into signing off on totally batshit crazy values. I just sold an entire chain of hotels for 50% of its loan value. 50%!! They weren't even loss making or bad hotels, it's just that the amount of leverage was so insane, even a tiny dip in the market would have crashed them. Of course what we had was more than a tiny dip

I don't expect this to be any different for other asset classes.

The funny thing is, now that they start talking about "tapering", the market is already starting to freak out a bit. But when you actually do the calculation of that "taper", you realise it's a mere TINY reduction in quantitative easing. If that...often they simply give it a different label than QE while pretending it's something different.
  • #855,005
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:04pm Nov 20, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} I couldn't agree more. I work in real estate (hotel real estate), and the amount of crazy bad loan portfolios I have to go through every week is outright scary. Sometimes I wonder if those who initially approved those loans were on drugs (or simply retarded) when they did so. The sad part is, it doesn't end there. In a lot of cases they haven't adjusted the value of the underlying security (aka the hotel)...or have done so but pressured the valuers into signing off on totally batshit crazy values. I just sold an entire chain of hotels for...
They'll taper, but in the same time they'll come up with a different form of QE. There is no way around it until the market will do the correction for them. Then there will be a lot of jumpers...
  • #855,006
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:08pm Nov 20, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Laughing hard to that BS tool but didnt want to post spam. But heck NY is closed . Yep, the best most powerfull tool they posess. Well, Attila surely you remember famous Draghis quote "I will do whatever it takes to save the Euro". Great BS tool and European stocks actually woke up for like 2 months, although ECB didnt move at all. When the heck was that? Cant remember.
It wasn't my intention to spam. There is obviously a subtle and complex way to not communicate making things way bigger and real than they are. FOMC is clearly taking full advantage of that. ECB is not different but being USD the reference currency, the impact FOMC's game has is 100 times bigger. On a slightly different note, ECB non-statement about neg dep rates today was released exactly when Bullard made his non-statement on tapering. Coincidence? yeah yeah.
  • #855,007
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:10pm Nov 20, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting attila
{quote} They'll taper, but in the same time they'll come up with a different form of QE. There is no way around it until the market will do the correction for them. Then there will be a lot of jumpers...
Jim Rogers did a good interview about that recently:

Inserted Video


One day the music will stop playing...and it won't be pretty.

To be honest, it should have stopped playing in 2008. They should have let those who so obviously failed at their job CRASH. If you mess up in business, you should go bust. It's as simple as that. Throwing money into a black hole, especially without fixing the underlying issue (batshit crazy deregulation) is pointless...it just delays the inevitable. The problem is, by delaying it, you end up making things a lot worse when it crashes. It's a bit like a cancer patient swallowing vitamin pills hoping things will get better.

By the way, I invented a fun new game: Every time an economist or someone in business claims we aren't in a currency war, you have to take a shot. Sooooooooooo easy to get drunk that way
  • #855,008
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:13pm Nov 20, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} why would Fed want to tank euro?

not saying they want to tank the euro. i meant the reaction to fed minutes. the banks just move the euro where-ever they want it to go.
  • #855,009
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:13pm Nov 20, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} Jim Rogers did a good interview about that recently: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zm6SwYaGIc One day the music will stop playing...and it won't be pretty. To be honest, it should have stopped playing in 2008. They should have let those who so obviously failed at their job CRASH. If you mess up in business, you should go bust. It's as simple as that. Throwing money into a black hole, especially without fixing the underlying issue (batshit crazy deregulation) is pointless...it just delays the inevitable. The problem is, by delaying...
Here's the thing though. Remember this: Whoever was fucked before, will be fucked after. Sad but true.
  • #855,010
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:17pm Nov 20, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting attila
{quote} Here's the thing though. Remember this: Whoever was fucked before, will be fucked after. Sad but true.
Oh, totally correct...of course the guys who messed up won't be the ones suffering the brunt of the consequences. The average Joe on the street didn't mess up, yet billions of all our taxpayer money was thrown at Wall Street. Did all that money end up back on main street? OF COURSE NOT! Those crooks will do everything in their power to make sure they won't suffer this time either. And given how cheap politicians are nowadays, they have great support in screwing everyone over again.

A lot of people will see their pensions wiped out I'm afraid.
  • #855,011
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:22pm Nov 20, 2013 5:22pm
People give too much credit to news events. The only reason prices move is to make money for the banks, and the news is irrelevant. More often than not the prices know what's in the news several days before it is announced. The trend before the news is the trend after the news. What happens in between is just an excuse to run the stops. Those are the best times for making pips.
  • #855,012
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:30pm Nov 20, 2013 5:30pm
I do not give a F@ck about news, but I like them, if they go against me, well that it is all part of the deal, when they push price in my direction, often the pay also my costs.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #855,013
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:35pm Nov 20, 2013 5:35pm
usd/chf breaks trendline, retest.. now up?
Attached Image
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #855,014
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:43pm Nov 20, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u understand the concept and have been on top today's. and the month and the way it flows. find a custom aid that fits u and use it to catch the larger fish. a trend is not always direction, its just the repeating of something over and over. read the future post. many will try to explain what u posted and saw before this move in a news event.
sos,
some funny shit in here.
each trying to post the reason, after the fact as usual. a fight on who post what first. the same recycled news with a new time stamp. a new day and the subjects change. not a single rocket..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,015
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:50pm Nov 20, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting Matts Micro
UJ soon to hit the sky imo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ-weekly-097.png Size: 769 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #855,016
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:53pm Nov 20, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may reload 3503... to target 3281, needs some tweaking still.. and a bounce to set it up.. .
looking to reload on a bounce to 3481 96 or even 3501 area, that's if we bounce. and there is a opening i like. more tweaking needed..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #855,017
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:56pm Nov 20, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yes I know. From the last couple days it's JPY weakness listed dollar so probably dollar bull will offset by JPY bear.
what matters is the ratio U/J
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #855,018
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:05pm Nov 20, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Euro-style meaning an option which can only be exercised upon expiration, not before. Large EU traders have incentive to buy up under 1.35 and sell above it up to the 10am new york cut. {quote} Really lovin that level now. {image}
True.

So one would expect that price would converse to MAJOR strike price levels upon their expiry. Market Price converging to Strike price based on Time to expiry.. cool thanks!
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #855,019
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:06pm Nov 20, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} In the grand bigger scheme , we didn't go anywhere in the last 3 years and i'm expecting we will not go anywhere in the next 3 years ... just a range between 1.25 / 1.35 , sometimes it pushes further or lower!
sell the world then, target 1.25
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #855,020
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:08pm Nov 20, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
People give too much credit to news events. The only reason prices move is to make money for the banks, and the news is irrelevant. More often than not the prices know what's in the news several days before it is announced. The trend before the news is the trend after the news. What happens in between is just an excuse to run the stops. Those are the best times for making pips.
Depends Joe..

I take another approach.

News is used to break significant support and resistance levels.. and test the true strength of them.

Today 1.34 held, not a good look for bears. Im still bearish though.

trend depends on timeframe sometimes up sometimes down - bit cynical but I would expect a retest of 1.2750 in the near future.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
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