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  • #70,821
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:20am Nov 20, 2013 11:20am
DJ FXCM USDOLLAR chewing through supply after gap and fill.
H1 chart attached
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,822
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:24am Nov 20, 2013 11:24am
This is great analysis pip trapper. I appreciate reading what you have to say!
  • #70,823
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:28am Nov 20, 2013 11:28am
The swings in € and Cable less than 25% of their ADRs, whereas gold's was more than 80% which enabled me to pirate a years supply of Mount Gay Extra Old.....no idea what that means - other than many happy evenings.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #70,824
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:33am Nov 20, 2013 11:33am
Fed Minutes Takeaways: On Track to End QE, but Stick to Low Rates.
By JON HILSENRATH
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/...JON+HILSENRATH
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,825
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:36am Nov 20, 2013 11:36am
Quoting britc17
This is great analysis pip trapper. I appreciate reading what you have to say!
Cheers britc... Feel free to share your ideas (or questions) also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,826
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:38am Nov 20, 2013 11:38am
My ideas are that I'm bearish Euro and Bearish USD haha. I think we could continue to see wild swings as FED members and ECB members wield their vocal power to devalue their respective currency. I've been trading for a while and can't remember a time where I thought the devaluation was so blatant.
  • #70,827
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:40am Nov 20, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Islander
The swings in € and Cable less than 25% of their ADRs, whereas gold's was more than 80% which enabled me to pirate a years supply of Mount Gay Extra Old.....no idea what that means - other than many happy evenings.....
Mmm. Not bad rum. That would require a nice setting also.

Congrats on that btw

Here's the proposed setting. All that's missing is the lady.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,828
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:59am Nov 20, 2013 11:59am
Quoting britc17
My ideas are that I'm bearish Euro and Bearish USD haha. I think we could continue to see wild swings as FED members and ECB members wield their vocal power to devalue their respective currency. I've been trading for a while and can't remember a time where I thought the devaluation was so blatant.
I said a couple of times before that if the Fed doesn't allow treasury rates to rise modestly to at least 3% on the 10 year, the market will do it for them, and that seems to be playing out.

I agree that both the Fed and the ECB are engaging in an ugly duckling contest, but this time it is quite clear to me that the ECB will win. Bernanke has previously stated that negative deposit rates are impossible and Draghi has previously stated that it is a consideration. Add to that todays revelations that a Fed taper is at hand and a negative deposit rate may be in the ECB cards at the next respective meetings, the rate differentials will be clearly favoring a bullish USD. It may not be a broad based bullish sentiment, but certainly vs the Euro and perhaps even vs the Kiwi. Definitely vs emerging market currencies.

Well at least that's my view anyway.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,829
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:07pm Nov 20, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I said a couple of times before that if the Fed doesn't allow treasury rates to rise modestly to at least 3% on the 10 year, the market will do it for them, and that seems to be playing out. I agree that both the Fed and the ECB are engaging in an ugly duckling contest, but this time it is quite clear to me that the ECB will win. Bernanke has previously stated that negative deposit rates are impossible and Draghi has previously stated that it is a consideration. Add to that todays revelations that a Fed taper is at hand and a negative deposit...

I agree. Do you trade any other pairs? I have almost solely only traded EUR/USD and some of the yen crosses. I'm trying to find a long term play against the Euro because of how bearish I am on it.
  • #70,830
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:09pm Nov 20, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I said a couple of times before that if the Fed doesn't allow treasury rates to rise modestly to at least 3% on the 10 year, the market will do it for them, and that seems to be playing out. I agree that both the Fed and the ECB are engaging in an ugly duckling contest, but this time it is quite clear to me that the ECB will win. Bernanke has previously stated that negative deposit rates are impossible and Draghi has previously stated that it is a consideration. Add to that todays revelations that a Fed taper is at hand and a negative deposit...

It amazes me how the market has been extremely positive about the euro. Was the negative depo rate plan a surprise ? No. Was the rate cut a surprise ? Overall no (it would've happened in the next meeting anyway). And yet the euro trades as if all of those things are one big surprise. Only the news itself makes the market tank. And we talk about everything being fundamentally priced in....what a bunch of BS
  • #70,831
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:22pm Nov 20, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting britc17
{quote} I agree. Do you trade any other pairs? I have almost solely only traded EUR/USD and some of the yen crosses. I'm trying to find a long term play against the Euro because of how bearish I am on it.
Yes I also trade other Euro crosses such as EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY. Also GBP/USD, some AUD crosses, gold, US Dollar index and SP500.
Basically I look for opportunities in all of them and when they pop up, I jump in.

I wouldn't call myself an active trader... more like a crouching tiger waiting for the right time to pounce.

Of course just like everyone else who trades, sometimes I get my fingers burned, but that's part of the business.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,832
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:28pm Nov 20, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} It amazes me how the market has been extremely positive about the euro. Was the negative depo rate plan a surprise ? No. Was the rate cut a surprise ? Overall no (it would've happened in the next meeting anyway). And yet the euro trades as if all of those things are one big surprise. Only the news itself makes the market tank. And we talk about everything being fundamentally priced in....what a bunch of BS
Well I know you're on a bit of a rant here so I'll allow you that, but I'm sure that when you cool down a bit you'll agree that when we say or imply that something is already priced in, we don't mean that it is fully priced in.... more like 80%.

Regardless of the above, in regards to the Euro, this one is definitely a mix of BS and false hope, so I'll certainly agree with you on your comments... but only where the Euro is concerned.

By the way Lumesh, I haven't forgotten about the mods to the S/D indie. Still in the works. Not as easy to find the time lately, but I will get it done for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,833
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:39pm Nov 20, 2013 12:39pm
Evening everyone, haven't been here in a while, had an over trading blowout after doing OK for a while. Just getting back with a piddly little account and see nothing has changed in the last couple months. E/U still waaaay to high.

In line with my absolute conviction the Euro will die an Horrible (or fantastic depending on your point of view death I managed to get a little short in from 3533. As always the dilemma is whether to let it run or grab the profits. Letting your winners run seems to be said all over the place, but where's the end? Normal trading problem but short of confidence.

Great to see PT you've come home. Still the best thread on the forum with the best contributors.....
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #70,834
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:53pm Nov 20, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting NZ Chris
Evening everyone, haven't been here in a while, had an over trading blowout after doing OK for a while. Just getting back with a piddly little account and see nothing has changed in the last couple months. E/U still waaaay to high.

In line with my absolute conviction the Euro will die an Horrible (or fantastic depending on your point of view death I managed to get a little short in from 3533. As always the dilemma is whether to let it run or grab the profits. Letting your winners run seems to be said all over the place, but where's the end? Normal trading problem but short of confidence.

Great to see PT you've come home. Still the best thread on the forum with the best contributors.....
Welcome back Chris

Take partial profits (at least 50%) and trail the rest using your preferred theory

This will always be my home. I'm glad to be back and also glad to have such great company
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,835
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:10pm Nov 20, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If the Euro closes off the day lower than yesterday's low, that gives us an outside day reversal which is very bearish. However we will need a follow through tomorrow to confirm it. ...
Bingo!!! Busted all lows from last 3 sessions and stopped short of busting Thursday's low.

E/U H1
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,836
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:16pm Nov 20, 2013 1:16pm
Its highly probable, that it will dip bellow current lows for some 10 pips and will continue up again for 630/50.. Idealy - tomorrow when intraday lows will become yesterdays lows
69
  • #70,837
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:19pm Nov 20, 2013 1:19pm
Gidday Chris

NZ Trader live Central Auckland

Best game in town that never ends

The markets will test you to your limits everytime

I had to change my trading patterns

Start doing more pending orders,an smaller size

Meant more sleep less risk

Works for me
  • #70,838
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:33pm Nov 20, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting Likerty
Its highly probable, that it will dip bellow current lows for some 10 pips and will continue up again for 630/50.. Idealy - tomorrow when intraday lows will become yesterdays lows
Anything is possible, but it is hard to say what is most likely at this point. The market seems to want to keep buying risk assets, but today's events scared the poops out of them.

I think at this point the bears have the advantage. What happens tomorrow will be dependent on two events. The Eurozone PMIs and the US jobless claims. Until then, scalp the range or stay flat if you're not already in.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,839
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:24pm Nov 20, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Welcome back Chris Take partial profits (at least 50%) and trail the rest using your preferred theory This will always be my home. I'm glad to be back and also glad to have such great company
Thanks PT. Partials Taken, rest running....

Time for a nice glass of Glenlivet. Don't worry I'll have one for everyone else too.....

Attached Image
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #70,840
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:26pm Nov 20, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday Chris NZ Trader live Central Auckland Best game in town that never ends The markets will test you to your limits everytime I had to change my trading patterns Start doing more pending orders,an smaller size Meant more sleep less risk Works for me
Gidday back, Sadly now in "Sunny" Cornwall UK. Do miss Kerikeri though. Back one day.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
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