EURUSD

Wow. JP morgan is gonna pay 13Bn for 2007 MBS frauds. Thats big news

that would scare the buyers and turn into big wave 5 down 50 percent retracement

What ever u r drinking man ...

Ouch ...

we'll find out by the end of the day who is making the right move.

Am loaded 40:1 and going to leverage to 80:1 on pullbacks. Is that enough? Anyway, wouldnt call for a 1000 pip drop, but that was just a general saying I think. I got very hard monthly like 1,31 - 1,32. Expect PA cant make it through.
But then, if everything goes according to plan, could be that 1000 pip rise, while we are talking about such numbers .

1.32 is gone since 1.3550 penetrated

Well udinho 1,3555 were my SL and hurt me real bad, trust me. But imo that wasnt proper break but just very precisely timed Bernanke fart.

Ultimately the largest moves come when central bank policy changes. If the ECB will be easing next year while the Fed is tapering, this pair has high chance to move into the low 1.20s. So you can either be scalping around for 20 and 30 point gains. Or continuously trying to position yourself for the move you beilieve in. Adjust your risk to make sense with what you think the reward will be.


If you tried to short AUDUSD this year 20 times from the 1.02 breakout, and was wrong every time then got it correct once, and added on pull backs etc. You would have still made huge money. Thats how large speculators trade, the market has just become so choppy these days that speculators get over focused on short term price fluctuations. If you look at the daily chart, if price fails here this represents a lower high on daily, so technically price could already be in a downtrend.

Im trying to make 100k here, not messing around for 10 and 20 points a day.

I wish you luck with your plans and hope to see u in the millionaire club

Don’t write off the ECB just yet

The ECB is not done easing yet. The prospect for lower rates, LTRO or QE would grow as the Eurozone disinflation continues and the economic recovery remains weak. This should keep EUR gains in check. The diverging policy outlook between the ECB and the BoE makes EURGBP an attractive short. EURUSD can lose ground if the Fed minutes come across as less dovish than expected.

EUR has shrugged off the November ECB rate cut and recent comments by various Governing council members suggesting that more aggressive policies could be on the cards before long. The latest euro bounce seemingly confirms the historic pattern of ‘half-hearted’ ECB easing measures resulting in only shallow, short-lived euro dips. What is more, Mr Draghi and co. may have run out of 'easy' options after pushing the main refi rate to record low. One could be tempted to conclude that EUR would squeeze higher still if the Governing council struggles to surprise in December.

We think that writing off the ECB as a driver of the euro maybe premature to say the least. The ECB has sent a strong signal that it will continue to lean against further disinflation in the Eurozone and thus against sustained euro appreciation. We therefore expect that market expectations of more easing measures to keep euro gains limited for now in our view.

The ECB may have to choose from the options below:

1/ LTRO - Indications that the Governing council is working on a long-term refinancing program that will help anchor rate expectations, alleviate any liquidity pressures in the Eurozone banking sector ahead of AQR and stress tests and avoid renewed funding tensions in the periphery. So far the Governing council has been rather vague about any new long-term liquidity measures so that the timing of the announcement could come as a dovish surprise and could weigh on euro.

2/ QE - Indications that the Governing council is looking into more aggressive policy options like QE and negative deposit rates. Recent comments by ECB’s chief economist Peter Praet signaled that such measures could be considered. Media reports over the summer seemed to suggest that the ECB may be looking into buying GDP-weighted amounts of Eurozone bonds potentially in the same way it purchased bonds under the SMP program. Indications by President Draghi that QE is among the options considered alongside LTRO could be perceived as quite dovish and send EUR lower.

3/ A refi or depo rate cut or indications that the ECB deliberated more cuts of refi or deposit rate. If the experience of the FOMC or the SNB is anything to go by, the Governing council may opt to introduce a band for the refi rate between zero and 25bp. Negative deposit rates seem less likely to us for the time being. The ECB may want to wait for the outcome of AQR and the stress tests for the Eurozone banks before considering the measure. Signals that more rate cuts are coming could also keep cyclical headwinds in place for the euro.

4/ FX market intervention – with the EUR TWI index close to multi-year highs some clients were discussing the possibility of unilateral or concerted intervention in the euro. The ECB engaged in concerted interventions in the FX markets to arrest the sharp EUR depreciation in 2000. The actions came on the back of decisions by Eurozone finance and economy ministers. An FX intervention seems less likely at present given that the G20 countries have agreed to refrain from actions that could target exchange rates. What is more, G20 central banks have agreed to pursue domestic goals (fighting disinflation) by using domestic instruments (no Forex). We suspect that it would take excessive EUR appreciation in combination with severe escalation in market volatility for FX interventions to be considered.

Valentin Marinov

Author : Valentin Marinov
Published by: CitiFX Wire

Am actually trading exactly the same Citiboy. I usually end up like 20 times at BE, before we finally break and then I laugh hard.
Needed to say, what you just posted = If EU progresses with QE and FED tapers - none of this is gonna happen. Fed wont taper, cause they cant. Remember they set the goal of unemployment at 6,5%? Dont see it anywhere close. Btw, do you see labour participation rate? Those numbers actually aint getting better. Housing? Dont make me laugh, FED is gonna soon become market for MBS, thats such a nonscence fuelling of the same bubble it cannot end well. Overall, imo from US we are gonna get QE cubed - there goes my final goal at 1,42 and from EU we aint gonna get direct QE, but hidden QE like right now using LTRO, OMTs and swaps and if we run out of money, European commision is gonna leverage promises of borrowed money in ESM and give it to tze banks, easy.

edit: btw, seems 1,349 is on the cards pretty soon.

i might trade eurusd on the upcoming news. tiny lots

Exactly, you can bet against ECB action, but when things get serious like 2012 you should not bet on Draghi inactivity.
Although he is tied he already proved to be creative. Betting against ECB innaction ultimately was the wrong bet last year and possibly next year/months as well.

And while we are at it, just look at this break-out failure. Can't be more obvious.

aussie crashed. looks like fake move to me

Btw, see that gold line? We are just swirling around her. Thats a last months open. If you look at daily, this number is kinda important and we are slowly heading to finish of the months.

agree, looks like running into demand for me

Watching this.. m15.

this is the news

IMF: AUD remains about 10% overvalued and says Australia should keep accommodative monetary policy

nice portfolio mate

where was the IMF when aussie was at 1.06. absolute bullshit. following bernanke's language. they cannot cut more