USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting seandean

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{quote} Anyone who shorted above 100 made a high probability trade, good job to you. Now, with that said, don’t expect this to go all the way down to 95 or some ridiculous number like that, I would recommend you get out somewhere in the 98 zone, probably reversing your position, trying to take the eventual retest (and true break) of the middle 100s. The option market says we are not going to trade much higher than 100.50 until after the first or second week of December, and that’s only if we are actually trading in the high 99s or low 100s when...

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Quoting iwavetrade

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{quote} Thanks you. I'll keep that in mind. I'm actually looking towards price below 96.

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Quoting seandean

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{quote} That’s going to be a pretty hard trade, but what’s your timeframe? Just for reference, the option market prices in the approximate chance of trading at 96 right now for the following dates with percentage; (Between now and) Jan 3, 2014 – 13.5% (Between now and) Feb 7, 2014 – 22.5% (Between now and) Mar 7, 2014 – 27.0% (Between now and) Jun 6, 2014 – 34.5% (Between now and) Sep 5, 2014 – 38.5%

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Quoting iwavetrade

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{quote} Interesting. Thank you for this. I wonder how well these probabilities hold up. I trade the time frame that gives me a clear wave pattern. I know a midterm sell off sounds ridiculous to most of the traders here, but...

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Quoting iNSIELD

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{quote} hey its interesting you are talking about below 96 I had a target of 100.482 for wave 3 missed it by 6 pips but I see this as a wave 4 move back to what i think likely 99.085 or thereabouts to the next level 102.775 I'm interested what timeframe are you looking at for your analysis. Its weird also because the GBP/JPY looks very bearish to me but USD/JPY looks bullish kind of throwing me off

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Quoting iwavetrade

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{quote} May I see your chart? I'm not sure what you're referring to as wave-3. It's hard to short UJ after months of bullish power. My first set of counts indicates that the last week's rally may be wave-e of the contracting triangle. It has just taken too long for price to move back over 100 for me to think we're moving north beyond 100.60 ATM. I took a high probability trade with 100.60 not broken. My s/l is there so I have small risk for high reward.

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Quoting davidsayli

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USD/JPY H4 CHART {image}

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Quoting bikov

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UJ is still hovering around 100 or between 100 and 99.50 - just a consolidation. In October the range was 97 - 99 and Nikkei under 15k (now this ex resistance acting as support) which is telling us that the price is slowly progressing. No reason for panic or euphoria. This is an excellent opportunity for loading longs. If the bullish scenario never occur, we all have a sell option at our MT4 .

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Quoting elSueco

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{quote} i think it is okay position for longs also. The retrace we have seen so far this week is totally normal. I would say the chanse is much bigger seeing 200 pips up than 200 pips down. Peace

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