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Up and under price pattern

  • #241
  • Nov 14, 2013 5:51pm Nov 14, 2013 5:51pm
Quidsey,

Thank you very much! I feel like I have so much to learn from you.
Talking about UC, I took the U/U pattern short UC trade at 105, and was run over immediately. Then I saw the SFP you just referred to. I didn't take it because I was not comfortable trading SFP yet. Now comes the hard part of trading........when do you decide to take UU trade (pending limit order before swing high or low and sl just outside of it) or wait for SFP trade? I guess how many times the price comes back to that level will make you decide which way (U/U or SFP) to trade. Am I right?

By the way, I took the GU U/U short trade today. In hindsight, we could miss this good U/U trade if we chose to wait for SFP trade. Decisions for you which way to trade it may be easy, but not for me yet.
  • #242
  • Nov 15, 2013 4:49am Nov 15, 2013 4:49am
Before I make a trading decision I try to make sure that I've understood the context, 'that is the circumstances that form the setting for an event, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed'.

Building context comes from observations about where the price is in relation to major swing points, prior highs/lows, if price is ranging/trending, how far price has already moved in the session (ADR), economic news events, time of day etc. always working from the top down and looking left.

Placed into this context I look for certain patterns that fit what I think the market will do next. You've basically got 3 ways of attack, continuation, reversal or breakout.

The rounded retest is a continuation and breakout pattern, SFP's and UU's are reversal patterns.

If you read through that "Fail better" thread you'll quickly find people (including me) trading patterns like the SFP out of context and questioning it's validity. You will find SFP's everywhere they're very common...... you could hit them all but it stands to reason we'd be wiser hitting them at strategic locations.

Hope this gives you a few ideas.
  • #243
  • Nov 15, 2013 6:08am Nov 15, 2013 6:08am
Quoting mmaker
What is "U/U" and what is "SFP"?
Hey mmaker,

I think;
U/U = Up and Under price pattern
SFP = Swing Failure Pattern

Rolo
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #244
  • Nov 15, 2013 7:28am Nov 15, 2013 7:28am
Quoting Quidsey
Before I make a trading decision I try to make sure that I've understood the context, 'that is the circumstances that form the setting for an event, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed'. Building context comes from observations about where the price is in relation to major swing points, prior highs/lows, if price is ranging/trending, how far price has already moved in the session (ADR), economic news events, time of day etc. always working from the top down and looking left. Placed into this context I look for certain patterns...
I know I still have a lot to learn. I hope I am up to the challenge.
You mentioned many posts ago that we should do the up down analysis, understand the market structure, trend, and where the major/minor swings are. Those analysis will help us hit them at the strategic locations. As you said, SFP's and UU's are reversal patterns. knowing or not knowing when to use which will mostly likely results in winners or losers.
Lets take yesterday's UC and GU trades as examples. We identified potential reversals for UC at 1.05 area and GU at 1.61 area. We were right. Both of them reversed (at least temporarily, but good enough for the trading) in those areas. I decided to apply UU trades on both of them, and got a loser in UC trade and a winner in GU trade. However, you had a better market understanding. You applied UU trade on GU and waited for the price to penetrate the previous high on UC and come back below (after my short position was stopped out) to take the SFP trade. You got both winners instead. If those two trades are any kind of indication, you are a winner in the FX market and I am just a break even trader.
If it's possible, can you please give us your detail analyses on those two trades (before you took them), pointing out the factors that help your decide whether to go for UU trade (use pending order) or wait for the SFP trade.
I hope I didn't ask too much. I know good decisions sometimes just come naturally with your experience and maybe your spidey sense.

Many thanks,
  • #245
  • Nov 15, 2013 7:31am Nov 15, 2013 7:31am
Quoting mmaker
What is "U/U" and what is "SFP"?
Rolo already explained to you what UU and SFP stand for. UU is the price action this thread is for. You can find information on SFP in another thread called "Fail Better".
  • #246
  • Nov 15, 2013 8:31am Nov 15, 2013 8:31am
Nothing comes naturally I can assure you

Very kind of you to heap such praise upon me but it is totally misplaced.

I'm sure you know, two isolated trades give no indication or meaning of any real competence in trading, what if the next 2 trades I post are losers..... what do I become then?

At the beginning of the year I lost 8 straight trades in a row....that hurts.

I understand what it's like when you get involved in Forex, it's an amazing thing to even be able to do from your home or wherever and think of the potential ways it could radically change your life. Stuff of dreams.

The reality for me has been a long hard slog. You go up and down, one day you've cracked it the next you want to just walk away, so just bear that in mind

Anyway I don't mean to go off on a tangent.... I'll try and explain what I was thinking on those pairs.
  • #247
  • Edited 10:42am Nov 15, 2013 8:33am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting Quidsey
£dollar, happy with this one, came straight off the bat for nearly 5R. I could now be following up with the SL but I had a plan, I followed the plan and that's that. {image} Big old weekly chart {image}

G/J, price is getting closer......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyweekly.png Size: 37 KB


Rolo
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #248
  • Nov 15, 2013 11:08am Nov 15, 2013 11:08am
Quoting rolo1128
{quote} G/J, price is getting closer...... {image} Rolo
I am watching this level too. It will be next week's trade though.
  • #249
  • Nov 15, 2013 11:11am Nov 15, 2013 11:11am
Ok, so just to make clear this is my opinion nothing more nothing less.

If you look at the 4h chart you can see that your pattern (in orange) is really a small timeframe pattern compared to the bigger picture. That's ok, it doesn't invalidate it automatically but it's also right next to a big supply area which could potentially attract price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 15112013 1.png Size: 35 KB


The bigger 4h pattern has played out with a nice 60pip move, so in effect you're choosing to play that level again, and you're also getting involved around news. Again not an automatic no no, but it doesn't make things any easier. The FTA looks tight too, but it's playable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now bearing all that in mind I'd probably give it a pass on that set-up.

After the spike into that supply area we get a nice bearish SFP candle, this now provides some PA for the short which looks a much better proposition.
  • #250
  • Nov 15, 2013 11:33am Nov 15, 2013 11:33am
Quoting Quidsey
Ok, so just to make clear this is my opinion nothing more nothing less. If you look at the 4h chart you can see that your pattern (in orange) is really a small timeframe pattern compared to the bigger picture. That's ok, it doesn't invalidate it automatically but it's also right next to a big supply area which could potentially attract price. {image} The bigger 4h pattern has played out with a nice 60pip move, so in effect you're choosing to play that level again, and you're also getting involved around news. Again not an automatic no no, but it...
Thank you very much. Great explanations. That's why it's important to do the up down analysis. Big supply or demand area do attract price. It happens again and again. After the price bounced off the supply area, it's quite safe to play the SFP. Good trade!
Have a nice weekend!
  • #251
  • Nov 15, 2013 12:53pm Nov 15, 2013 12:53pm
AUD/USD

Is this a good example of a U/U trade? Maybe Im going about this the wrong way. Ill admit, Im still confused about this pattern. Ill be going through this thread again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm3015nov13.png Size: 30 KB


Rolo
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #252
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:06pm Nov 15, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting rolo1128
AUD/USD Is this a good example of a U/U trade? Maybe Im going about this the wrong way. Ill admit, Im still confused about this pattern. Ill be going through this thread again. {image} Rolo
It does look like a good UU trade in my opinion. It has the engulfing and goes with the trend at minor resistance level. Did you move your SL already after the price moved away?
  • #253
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:44pm Nov 15, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting rolo1128
AUD/USD Is this a good example of a U/U trade? Maybe Im going about this the wrong way. Ill admit, Im still confused about this pattern. Ill be going through this thread again. {image} Rolo
Hi Rolo, no I think you've got the right idea, I've added some notes on the chart.

Ask away if there is something confusing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 15112013.png Size: 34 KB
  • #254
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:53pm Nov 15, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting sclz
{quote} It does look like a good UU trade in my opinion. It has the engulfing and goes with the trend at minor resistance level. Did you move your SL already after the price moved away?
Yes.
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #255
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:02pm Nov 15, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Hi Rolo, no I think you've got the right idea, I've added some notes on the chart. Ask away if there is something confusing. {image}
Now engulf you mean of multiple demand zones on its way down?

Rolo
The Eyes Believe What They See And The Ears Believe What Others Say.
  • #256
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:15pm Nov 15, 2013 2:15pm
Yes, we don't always get it but ideally I'd want to see a major swing like that engulfed. It's why I like the GBPJPY trade, that has engulfed the last big swing.
  • #257
  • Nov 18, 2013 12:38pm Nov 18, 2013 12:38pm
Had a buy order in UC @ 1.0412 which didn't get picked up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 18112013.png Size: 29 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 18112013.png Size: 28 KB
  • #258
  • Nov 18, 2013 10:13pm Nov 18, 2013 10:13pm
I am new to this thread. I am very interested in this method. This one closed in profit for me today. Does it look right?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #259
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:39am Nov 19, 2013 1:39am
Very nice, I was looking at that myself. Reason I left it was for the USDCHF trade, same thing (-96% D1 correlation) but just fitted my risk management better.

Welcome anyway, hope you find something useful.
  • #260
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:03pm Nov 21, 2013 10:03pm
Here are some charts from today.


Original was a loss, but then bought on the pullback to the level:
(This probably did not engulf enough)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpym30.png Size: 45 KB


This one was a loss:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadm30.png Size: 55 KB


Winner:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdm30.png Size: 55 KB


Overall I ended up +2%
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