Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,741
- Nov 17, 2013 2:33pm Nov 17, 2013 2:33pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
- #70,742
- Nov 17, 2013 3:53pm Nov 17, 2013 3:53pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
- #70,743
- Nov 17, 2013 5:03pm Nov 17, 2013 5:03pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg are all calling for further USD weakness and possible acceleration of same.
Throughout the years that I have been tuned in to both networks, I have found that these analysts are more wrong than right... and since the majority of them agree that the USD will weaken, I am even more doubtful of their accuracy in this case.
However, good to have the heads up.
I think there's a big bull/bear fight ahead.
Throughout the years that I have been tuned in to both networks, I have found that these analysts are more wrong than right... and since the majority of them agree that the USD will weaken, I am even more doubtful of their accuracy in this case.
However, good to have the heads up.
I think there's a big bull/bear fight ahead.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,744
- Nov 17, 2013 6:31pm Nov 17, 2013 6:31pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Congress hearing on bitcoin this week. Bitcoin is a threat to the institutions that supports their campaigns. How do you think this will go for Bitcoin?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,745
- Nov 18, 2013 2:14am Nov 18, 2013 2:14am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,004 Posts
Analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg are all calling for further USD weakness and possible acceleration of same. Throughout the years that I have been tuned in to both networks, I have found that these analysts are more wrong than right... and since the majority of them agree that the USD will weaken, I am even more doubtful of their accuracy in this case. However, good to have the heads up. I think there's a big bull/bear fight ahead.
For Euro - 3520 is a sweet spot, but if 3540's highs gets broken, than 3630's will be the next point to load shorts.
69
- #70,746
- Nov 18, 2013 2:21am Nov 18, 2013 2:21am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
Analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg are all calling for further USD weakness and possible acceleration of same. Throughout the years that I have been tuned in to both networks, I have found that these analysts are more wrong than right... and since the majority of them agree that the USD will weaken, I am even more doubtful of their accuracy in this case. However, good to have the heads up. I think there's a big bull/bear fight ahead.
really ? I haven't noticed that usd weakness call is the majority one. Maybe.
Anyways, the early Nov peak is the next important hurdle (or simply 1.35 give or take a few) for eur. Breaking that peak doesn't give it a high probability follow through, could simply be stop hunting. Fundamentals still point down, the only thing in the way the FED with no taper.
At least, euraud stopped being a dick for a change.
- #70,747
- Nov 18, 2013 2:30am Nov 18, 2013 2:30am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} really ? I haven't noticed that usd weakness call is the majority one. Maybe. Anyways, the early Nov peak is the next important hurdle (or simply 1.35 give or take a few) for eur. Breaking that peak doesn't give it a high probability follow through, could simply be stop hunting. Fundamentals still point down, the only thing in the way the FED with no taper. At least, euraud stopped being a dick for a change.
The EURAUD move was just a matter of time. I'm still in BTW. Have not given up on my target either, but as I mentioned before, I have already taken major pips off that trade. The rest is whipped cream and a cherry
Regarding EURUSD, I agree with you and Likerty on that one. 1.3520 is pretty much an obstacle to further gains, but as we all know, the market likes to test the limits especially when the big boys see all those dangling stop losses begging to be taken out.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,749
- Nov 18, 2013 2:41am Nov 18, 2013 2:41am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
{quote} The EURAUD move was just a matter of time. I'm still in BTW. Have not given up on my target either, but as I mentioned before, I have already taken major pips off that trade. The rest is whipped cream and a cherry
We all are
I wouldn't yet bet on that massive of a drop than you are but between 1.38-1.39 is perhaps possible. I do realize that there's a big fat juicy 1.36 untested level but for that taper should be off the table and MSCI (with China's econ data) need to rebound hard. Taper BS is having the biggest impact on Asia.
- #70,750
- Nov 18, 2013 2:41am Nov 18, 2013 2:41am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,752
- Nov 18, 2013 2:57am Nov 18, 2013 2:57am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Technicals show quite simmilar distances for USD to travel against Eur, CHF, Aud, Yen.. (Pound and Yen has the most room). Looking in Euro monthly charts, seems like journey up will be slow and choppy. Not a swing really but a sliding consolidation (accumulation if you will) of sorts. Here - very similar pattern happened on D1 charts not so long ago - two attempts to move higher and the third - grab for cheep buck competition... {image} {image}
By the way, that same crawl/wedge has been spotted quite a few times on the Euro in the past just before key reversals.
Compressed Daily (Similar to monthly, but with more detail)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,753
- Nov 18, 2013 3:24am Nov 18, 2013 3:24am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
hyperinflation is not that likely.
FED buys treasuries which keep the yield down. Lower yields accross the board gives consumers more money at hand which will lift the demand. Higher demand will turn into higher prices AS LONG as consumers have that "exess" money to lift the demand (and thus prices) further. Any increase in prices will have negative impact on consumers pockets which acts as a backstoping tool for further increase in prices.
I see hyperinflation possibility only when there's REAL loss of confidence in the U.S. Which will be anticipated by the collapse of the bond/currency market.
I keep getting this image in my mind...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,755
- Nov 18, 2013 3:49am Nov 18, 2013 3:49am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
{quote} I keep getting this image in my mind... {image}
i'm sure you do.
But u better replace the face in this image
I would love to hear the HYPERinflation argument, though.
I agree that the current printing results in asset bubbles but hyperinflation is a completely different beast.
As seen in the econ data PCE and core CPI are in a downward trend since their peak in 2012.
- #70,756
- Nov 18, 2013 3:55am Nov 18, 2013 3:55am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} i'm sure you do. But u better replace the face in this image
Of course when inflation starts to creep up, the Fed will have to take notice because the inflation effect takes between 6 and 12 months to show up. Therefore, once it looks like it has bottomed, they will have to start getting hawkish, otherwise by the time they finish unwinding, inflation may well overshoot the target.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,757
- Nov 18, 2013 7:09am Nov 18, 2013 7:09am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
{quote} I see good potential for USD weakness too.. But not before one more leg down for EU, UCHF (UP), AU, UJ (UP).. For Euro - 3520 is a sweet spot, but if 3540's highs gets broken, than 3630's will be the next point to load shorts.
- #70,758
- Nov 18, 2013 7:21am Nov 18, 2013 7:21am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Update GA shorts +136pips all still alivePosting to show the power of BB 2nd and 3rd Standard deviation with RSI 30/70 Price most likely to reverse inside orange 2nd BB and 3rd BB black on daily {image} {image}
Yes Davit... Bollinger Bands 2nd and 3rd Deviation provide excellent trade entry and exit points while ranging.
Don't try that in a trending pair though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #70,760
- Nov 18, 2013 8:11am Nov 18, 2013 8:11am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} you meant that you were getting this image in your mind... {image}
and I bet it was specially made for Halloween too Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it