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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,501
  • Nov 17, 2013 8:05am Nov 17, 2013 8:05am
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} bikof, could u please tell me which is the abrevviation for the US10y t notes? thanks in advance

US 10 YR T-Note ? I'm watching this on Investing.com

EDIT: on the main page at the right side there are quotes for bonds. click on one of them and you'll get the chart.

EDIT II : $ZN_F
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,502
  • Nov 17, 2013 8:30am Nov 17, 2013 8:30am
This is the chart of the US10y yields (currently at 2.71%) and a declining trend line from 2007. Hm, I see some kind of inverted H&S at the bottom but also LH on the other side:
Attached Image
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,503
  • Nov 17, 2013 9:10am Nov 17, 2013 9:10am
Divergence...quite interesting for those who believe the south scenario now...
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #39,504
  • Nov 17, 2013 9:29am Nov 17, 2013 9:29am
Quoting spinozagr
Divergence...quite interesting for those who believe the south scenario now... {image}
this indicates an upwards movement if I remember correctly
  • #39,505
  • Nov 17, 2013 9:53am Nov 17, 2013 9:53am
Quoting bikov
This is the chart of the US10y yields (currently at 2.71%)...Hm, I see some kind of inverted H&S at the bottom ...
Besides what you see I wander to know what you wanted to say with this chart?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #39,506
  • Nov 17, 2013 10:02am Nov 17, 2013 10:02am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} this indicates an upwards movement if I remember correctly
If price is making higher highs while indicator is making lower highs OR if price is making lower lows while indicator is making higher lows Thats diversion as far as I know.

However whos is trading monthly chart anyway. I think all of us here are either short-term or med-term traders.
No guts, no glory
  • #39,507
  • Nov 17, 2013 10:12am Nov 17, 2013 10:12am
Quoting spinozagr
Divergence...quite interesting for those who believe the south scenario now... {image}
I don't use these indicators. So what is this divergence saying and why is it interesting to the shorters ?
  • #39,508
  • Nov 17, 2013 10:32am Nov 17, 2013 10:32am
Quoting mima
{quote} Besides what you see I wander to know what you wanted to say with this chart?

Well, that there's strong resistance at the yields and that could cause some problems for UJ longs. FED is dedicated to keep the yields down and if they break up the resistance maybe the feds would do whatever it takes to take the dollar down. If they succeed it would be more bumpy road for UJ up trend. Also, if yields stays bellow the trend line and start to fall again it would mean that there's no fear of inflation, rising the rates or tightening in USA which again is not very supportive for UJ. But if yields break up the res.line and feds looses control over it, that would mean more attracive yields in USA vs Japan - UJ friendly situation I guess. US yields are still connected with UJ so there it is. That's what I wanted to say and to present - a chart which is almost equally important like UJ chart and rarely posted here.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,509
  • Nov 17, 2013 10:58am Nov 17, 2013 10:58am
Quoting abokwaik
However whos is trading monthly chart anyway. I think all of us here are either short-term or med-term traders.
I believe it is best to be a short and long term trader. Have a long term bias according to monthly chart and then execute low risk entries with short term momentum.

bikov has been one of the most consistently bullish posters and he is the only one I've seen reference the monthly chart, calling it "cute" from what I remember. Personally I've been bearish at times because I've seen weakness in 4hr and daily charts, but those feelings are all secondary until the monthly chart closes. I wouldn't even consider being bullish as "an opinion," but more of a reaction to what market is telling us.

I've said it before...align yourself with the previous week direction and eventually you will be rewarded with a long term position. The trick is minimizing your losses before that true trend finally happens.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,510
  • Nov 17, 2013 11:29am Nov 17, 2013 11:29am
Quoting bikov
Well, that there's strong resistance at the yields and that could cause some problems for UJ longs...
Thank you...that is better. I appreciate your willingness to explain ...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #39,511
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:30pm Nov 17, 2013 1:30pm
USD/JPY H4 CHART
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  • #39,512
  • Nov 17, 2013 3:03pm Nov 17, 2013 3:03pm
no gap down, things look like they may go up
  • #39,513
  • Nov 17, 2013 3:20pm Nov 17, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting kweiss10
no gap down, things look like they may go up
esignal: 100.28
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #39,514
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:03pm Nov 17, 2013 4:03pm
Decent gap up. Long here with stop at 100.08.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,515
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:30pm Nov 17, 2013 4:30pm
Nikkei also at resistance (stolen from "the avid chartist") :
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"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,516
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:42pm Nov 17, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting zusch
Decent gap up. Long here with stop at 100.08.
Beware a strong start on the Tokyo stock exchange which often pushes UJ down.
We had a push-down last week, so maybe this week we will not get a push-down.
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  • #39,517
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:46pm Nov 17, 2013 4:46pm
a view from the other side:
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"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,518
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:46pm Nov 17, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Beware a strong start on the Tokyo stock exchange which often pushes UJ down. We had a push-down last week, so maybe this week we will not get a push-down.
So far the 5min price action has been good, but this entry was more of a daily entry. I see this kind of set up all the time in the stock market where you get gaps every day. Price gapped above the 38.2% daily retrace, dipped just a bit, and will hopefully take off pretty soon. If this trade works the way I think it will we will cruise right through Friday's high and once above there we could go anywhere.

100.08 is below the 3rd pink retracement line for yesterday's daily candle.
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,519
  • Nov 17, 2013 4:51pm Nov 17, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting bikov
Nikkei also at resistance (stolen from "the avid chartist") : {image}
Yes defiantly in the red zone there.
  • #39,520
  • Nov 17, 2013 6:02pm Nov 17, 2013 6:02pm
My view is that a short SHORT is possible @ 100.460 area, with TP somewhere in 99.600 area!
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