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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,481
  • Nov 16, 2013 9:48pm Nov 16, 2013 9:48pm
I think we will come down to 99.8x-9x level early next week and we will get a bounce upwards. if the bounce is impulsive upwards and takes out current highs within 16 hours then we are continuing the upmove. If we get a corrective bounce, then likely we head down to at least 98.5 level.

Trade plan: long at 99.8x region, and watch what happens in 16 hours. if strong upmove - hold, if corrective bounce, sell and go short; if price continues heading down, hold longs and wait for a bounce to determine whether to exit.

if we don't get the correction and instead gap up and continue moving, then will have to re-evaluate.

Cheers.
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  • #39,482
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:11pm Nov 16, 2013 11:11pm
a lot of people keep trying to draw triangles / wedges on this consolidation but it has never followed any of these on every move. here is what i see as key, if 100.61 is broken (9/10/13 high) then it will appear to be the start of the breakout. Next week will be interesting, but i see dollar weakness coming into play and JPY weakness was really driven last week. let's see.

http://i39.tinypic.com/11scba1.jpg
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  • #39,483
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:37am Nov 17, 2013 12:37am
Quoting wolve
Nikkei heading towards very strong resistance around the 15700 area. As we all know the jpy pairs are closely related to Nikkei movements. A huge correction down in these pairs might be on the cards. {image}

Or or it could just break to the upside and keep going.

@ momochi how as the triangle not worked?

last week it broke the triangle from 103 and a shorter term trend line from 101
  • #39,484
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:47am Nov 17, 2013 12:47am
Quoting brinks
{quote} @ momochi how as the triangle not worked?
remove activity after September 1st from your graph and draw a triangle

i'm not saying that this break definitely won't be the real thing i am just saying that unless it can break 100.6X then it looks very likely to continue consolidation pattern.
Do what's right for you
  • #39,485
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:58am Nov 17, 2013 12:58am
Quoting momochi
{quote} remove activity after September 1st from your graph and draw a triangle i'm not saying that this break definitely won't be the real thing i am just saying that unless it can break 100.6X then it looks very likely to continue consolidation pattern.
yes I agree it needs to break the 100.60 high to give more confidence but the break has been true to form so far tightening price followed by a strong move out of the wedge triangle or could even be a weekly flag.

i will be looking for a retest of the triangle for continuation of the upmove.

as you say I'm not sure this break is real or not but after the fakeout on 07.11.13 then the strong move up it could well be.
  • #39,486
  • Edited 1:35am Nov 17, 2013 1:06am | Edited 1:35am
eur/jpy looks over extended and is at resistance too, where as EU is looking bullish suggesting JPY strength - edit - as well, but always hesitant to stand in the way of these fast moves. will look for some scalp short entries in the immediate but nothing to heavy.
Do what's right for you
  • #39,487
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:16am Nov 17, 2013 1:16am
Quoting momochi
eur/jpy looks over extended and is at resistance too, where as EU is looking bullish suggesting JPY weakness as well, but always hesitant to stand in the way of these fast moves. will look for some scalp short entries in the immediate but nothing to heavy.
BOJ meet next week and could show they want to weaken the yen further.

but if they don't then this could have a good fall.
  • #39,488
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:36am Nov 17, 2013 1:36am
Hello Yen masters

Been out played with this EUR/YEN

Been clipping the ticket on my longs to early

If the US/JPY keeps climbing

Everybody has been saying down move is just around the corner

I been saying the EUR/YEN will take the long way down

If it is going to 138.5 it would be great to get a retrace to load some longs:nerd:
  • #39,489
  • Nov 17, 2013 2:16am Nov 17, 2013 2:16am
Quoting momochi
{quote} remove activity after September 1st from your graph and draw a triangle i'm not saying that this break definitely won't be the real thing i am just saying that unless it can break 100.6X then it looks very likely to continue consolidation pattern.
FYI, the "triangle" began life some months ago as an perfectly symmetrical diamond. Each side was 100% parallel with its opposite side ; the symmetry was so good that it looked almost "designed". Over time it morphed into a narrow triangle. Then it morphed into a wider triangle ...
  • #39,490
  • Nov 17, 2013 3:02am Nov 17, 2013 3:02am
Buying on a breakout retracement would be less of a gamble. As it is, they could well be setting you up for a break out to the down side. Before a major upward break they have to take out all the longs, so a break to the down side is not beyond possibility.
  • #39,491
  • Nov 17, 2013 3:47am Nov 17, 2013 3:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyrweekly_nov_17.png Size: 30 KB


These are the current important levels as I see. We have to watch PA around 100.60 and 99.66.

If it manages to break up 100.60 most probably it will reach 101.50

If it manages to break down 99.66 most probably it will reach 99.00.

My guess it will touch and stalls at 100.60 before falling to 99.66 (top of broken triangle) for support, and a rebound to 101.50 (by end of Nov.)

I already have a small long position opened from last week @ 99.25 with SL at 100. I will be very careful in opening new positions at the moment, until we seen what happen at those levels.

Abokwaik
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  • #39,492
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:13am Nov 17, 2013 5:13am
Quoting abokwaik
{image} These are the current important levels as I see. We have to watch PA around 100.60 and 99.66. If it manages to break up 100.60 most probably it will reach 101.50 If it manages to break down 99.66 most probably it will reach 99.00. My guess it will touch and stalls at 100.60 before falling to 99.66 (top of broken triangle) for support, and a rebound to 101.50 (by end of Nov.) I already have a small long position opened from last week @ 99.25 with SL at 100. I will be very careful in opening new positions at the moment, until we seen what...
Hoping it to go down. been short 99.9 post yellen. and that bad data last thrusday should catch up to it.
  • #39,493
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:33am Nov 17, 2013 5:33am
I usually don't trust these guys but this sounds logical:

We continue to expect USD/JPY to rise to 107 over the next 12 months. A challenge to our weaker Yen view would emerge if investors become more sceptical about their 'Abenomics' trade and unwind long USD/JPY positions."
http://www.efxnews.com/story/21672/a...-goldman-sachs
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,494
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:41am Nov 17, 2013 5:41am
Quoting bikov
I usually don't trust these guys but this sounds logical: We continue to expect USD/JPY to rise to 107 over the next 12 months. A challenge to our weaker Yen view would emerge if investors become more sceptical about their 'Abenomics' trade and unwind long USD/JPY positions." http://www.efxnews.com/story/21672/a...-goldman-sachs

quite possible but that is over the period of 12 months rite? I hope it does not reach 107 this week. looks like all the arrows are coming from Abe's bow.

  • #39,495
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:51am Nov 17, 2013 5:51am
The day Abe won the elections, the UJ was at over 100. The results of the elections came out on sunday and in that week the UJ fell to as low as 96. So honestly, no clue which way this is headed. Good news means down, bad news means up nowdays.
  • #39,496
  • Nov 17, 2013 7:03am Nov 17, 2013 7:03am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
Buying on a breakout retracement would be less of a gamble. As it is, they could well be setting you up for a break out to the down side. Before a major upward break they have to take out all the longs, so a break to the down side is not beyond possibility.

if everyone and their grandmother was not so bearish on the YEN and bullish on the USD this YEN would have been at 105-110 long ago. As soon as they see everyone on board they usually reverse its direction in one way or another. Quite well manipulated if you ask me. Some big hands behind the scenes.
  • #39,497
  • Nov 17, 2013 7:24am Nov 17, 2013 7:24am
Technically speaking (ichimoku) from M30 to MN charts the price is above the cloud, even succeeded to close above the cloud at monthly chart ( there was closing above the cloud in May but in the next months the upper boundary of the cloud-senkou span B acted as resistance). Maybe this closing would be the real trigger for attack on higher levels. Also haiken ashi candles are bullish from daily to monthly.
To resume: there's closing above cloud on monthly and weekly&monthly bullish h.a. candles - bullish bias I say. Now it's up to BoJ to give us the fuel.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,498
  • Nov 17, 2013 7:36am Nov 17, 2013 7:36am
Quoting bikov
Technically speaking (ichimoku) from M30 to MN charts the price is above the cloud, even succeeded to close above the cloud at monthly chart ( there was closing above the cloud in May but in the next months the upper boundary of the cloud-senkou span B acted as resistance). Maybe this closing would be the real trigger for attack on higher levels. Also haiken ashi candles are bullish from daily to monthly. To resume: there's closing above cloud on monthly and weekly&monthly bullish h.a. candles - bullish bias I say. Now it's up to BoJ to give us...

Definitely above the clouds now. From here it could drop back down to earth which is underneath them clouds or head to the moon.
  • #39,499
  • Nov 17, 2013 7:50am Nov 17, 2013 7:50am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Definitely above the clouds now. From here it could drop back down to earth which is underneath them clouds or head to the moon.

Well, clouds and green candles are not a 100% guarantee that the trend would remain bullish but it's all that we (small fishes with long positions) have. Ok, not the only - the rate differential between US and Japan is in dollar favor and will stay that for a long time. Besides the postponed tapering, tightening in US is closer than in the Land of the rising sun. Even in a case of no taper in March 2014, the door for tightening would be still open, contrary to Japan. After all, US10y t notes are in a bearish mode. This difference makes an advantage for UJ.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #39,500
  • Nov 17, 2013 7:59am Nov 17, 2013 7:59am
Quoting bikov
{quote} Well, clouds and green candles are not a 100% guarantee that the trend would remain bullish but it's all that we (small fishes with long positions) have. Ok, not the only - the rate differential between US and Japan is in dollar favor and will stay that for a long time. Besides the postponed tapering, tightening in US is closer than in the Land of the rising sun. Even in a case of no taper in March 2014, the door for tightening would be still open, contrary to Japan. After all, US10y t notes are in a bearish mode. This difference makes an...
bikof,

could u please tell me which is the abrevviation for the US10y t notes?

thanks in advance
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