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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,261
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:11pm Nov 12, 2013 2:11pm
I missed out a few pips! Closed out around 99.67 and it's now 99.7 it might be a few pips but damnnit every single pip/pipette counts right here.
  • #39,262
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:09pm Nov 12, 2013 4:09pm
Daily candle looks bullish, but I'm not really in a huge rush to buy anymore. The reason for that is b/c of the 1hr and 4hr charts looking a bit messy. Price action was moving so smoothly that I was pretty surprised to see my add from last night taken out at breakeven and price to chop around for 12+ hours.

The daily Fib levels I have are 99.52, 99.44, and 99.36 for the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracements respectively. I'm still holding long and moving stop up to 99.29.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,263
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:45pm Nov 12, 2013 5:45pm
http://allstarcharts.com/theres-big-move-coming-japan/

Article leaning towards to bull case for Yen. I don't use trendlines because everyone draws them a bit differently, but I'm keeping an open mind to either direction.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,264
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:54pm Nov 12, 2013 5:54pm
Quoting zusch
http://allstarcharts.com/theres-big-move-coming-japan/ Article leaning towards to bull case for Yen. I don't use trendlines because everyone draws them a bit differently, but I'm keeping an open mind to either direction.
This is interesting.

Especially this quote "Now here’s the thing. When technicians look at these charts, we’re trained to presume that the consolidation will eventually breakout in the direction of the underlying trend, which in these two cases would be to the upside of course. But it’s not just us in the chart community, the fundamental guys are all over this one as well. In fact, I can’t find a single person that doesn’t think these two charts break out to the upside. It’s almost like blasphemy if I bring up even the possibility of a sell-off in Japanese Stocks or a rally in Yen."

This is one of the reasons I'm selling this triangle. Too many "IT'S A BUY, HOW CAN YOU NOT TELL?"
  • #39,265
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:32pm Nov 12, 2013 9:32pm
Sellers at it early... 5min/15min close below 50% daily Fib.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,266
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:35pm Nov 12, 2013 9:35pm
I'm selling too. Only time will tell for sure.

Nice setup on daily chart.... but too early to tell


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39,267
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:33pm Nov 12, 2013 11:33pm
regardless of the outcome from bernanke's speech, usd/jpy will go down for today and depending on the outcome of the speech, will rally or fall
  • #39,268
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:47pm Nov 12, 2013 11:47pm
Barrier option at Usd/Jpy 100.0 & well protected. Large stops above.
  • #39,269
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:01am Nov 13, 2013 12:01am
1hr and 4hr look bad.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,270
  • Nov 13, 2013 2:11am Nov 13, 2013 2:11am
We closed our longs yesterday evening but we can't see any crash. It's a confirmation for bullish trend. And i will look for new buy point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39,271
  • Nov 13, 2013 2:13am Nov 13, 2013 2:13am
To me H4 seems a bit a flag like consolidation atm, thinking about to get back in with half size
  • #39,272
  • Nov 13, 2013 2:38am Nov 13, 2013 2:38am
Quoting seandean
{quote} The option market is currently pricing those chances at approximately 10% between now and Friday afternoon. It seems like its only 150 pips, which is true, but those are a “hard” 150 to make. The path of lesser resistance is downwards, the same move to about 98.00 is priced at approximately 17%.
Friday afternoon will not see anything beyond 99.79. That resistance level should remain firm for a few weeks to come.
  • #39,273
  • Nov 13, 2013 3:23am Nov 13, 2013 3:23am
Quoting sanacasta
We closed our longs yesterday evening but we can't see any crash. It's a confirmation for bullish trend. And i will look for new buy point. {image}

You ASSUME a 5th wave extension - as would anyone with a bullish expectation.

But what if there's no wave 5??? What if 99.3/4 gives way?

Or maybe you just counted wrong!

Now, let me think ... if there was no wave 5 ...oh, that would possibly suggest a C wave. How would that look on your bullish wave count?
  • #39,274
  • Nov 13, 2013 3:37am Nov 13, 2013 3:37am
We are discussing 2 options, first chart bearish second chart bullish.
if we see 5.wave (new high) on my before post chart (hourly chart) we will have second bullish chart confirmation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.jpg Size: 273 KB
  • #39,275
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:12am Nov 13, 2013 4:12am
As a confirmed Yen-bear I would like to point out the following.

Yesterday's tickle at 99.80 can be viewed as confirmation of the down-trend drawn from July 7th through the high of September 11th.
We need to see 99.80 broken convincingly before screaming to the hilltops.

On this basis I just cancelled my long order entry @ 99.40.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,276
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:16am Nov 13, 2013 4:16am
Another point to consider is that because UJ has rattled around inside this triangle since at least 7th July any breakout is unlikely to carry much momentum.

The caveat to that is that any significant news item will do it. Another tsunami god forbid, or some other catastrophe such as the FED increasing QE.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,277
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:18am Nov 13, 2013 4:18am
Quoting sanacasta
We are discussing 2 options, first chart bearish second chart bullish. if we see 5.wave (new high) on my before post chart (hourly chart) we will have second bullish chart confirmation. {image} {image}
Thank you - it's just that you posted one view only which was a little presumptuous. Anyway, we will see over the next few hours.

Best wishes
  • #39,278
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:32am Nov 13, 2013 4:32am
Bought 99.50 (after spread). Stop at 99.35.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,279
  • Nov 13, 2013 5:53am Nov 13, 2013 5:53am
It's rallying right now. Doesn't go upwards anymore. 100 doesn't look possible this weak. Should buy or sell?

Someone give some advice.
  • #39,280
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:01am Nov 13, 2013 6:01am
Forming a flat bottom triangle . Trade the breakout
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