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Trading Made Simple

  • #27,441
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:30am Nov 12, 2013 2:30am
Not only posting winners, here I've got another looser.

Entered thursday night on opening of D1-candle on AUDJPY.
I entered because of the large short candle on thusday, expecting more downside momentum and targeting a new low for the short term trend. But this did not emerge, the expected lower low (from the current view) was just on the day before.

Closed this morning with -32 pips, because PA on H4 and H1 going more and more to the upside and TDI on D1 also is turning to the other side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-12 09.10 GMT+1 AUDJPY.png Size: 198 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #27,442
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:44am Nov 12, 2013 2:44am
Currently running D1-trades on

  1. AUDCHF short +40 pips, Stop B/E
  2. AUDUSD short +131 pips (1/2 pos. closed by +92 pips, Stop B/E, see post 27,412) - managing the exit for 2nd 1/2 looking on PA and TDI
  3. EURCHF short -44 pips (entered only small pos., see post 27,418) - I hold on, set the SL above the high, another 11 pips away)
  4. GDBUSD short +53 pips (see post 27,425) - even if it is too early on D1, I set the SL on B/E, because of news at 10:30 GMT+1 and the fact we already retraced about 80% of the upside move
  5. USDJPY long +164 pips (not a TMS trade, entered on the retrecement to the upside break of the bullflag in D1)
  6. USOIL long -22 pips on D1 on TDI reentering VolaBand upwards - here PA on H4 and H1 looks like potential turn to the downside - must see what I ll do with this the next hours)

fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #27,443
  • Nov 12, 2013 3:33am Nov 12, 2013 3:33am
EJ 1hr - TDI MBL is over 68 so most of the time we see reversals and there is also divergence.

At LO we spiked up and then pulled back possible fakey? Possible high of day?

Just my thoughts GL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 1hr 12th.png Size: 27 KB
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #27,444
  • Nov 12, 2013 3:38am Nov 12, 2013 3:38am
Closed GBPUSD scaled out by +81 (1/3) and +123 pips (2/3) between daily S3 and monthly S1, even if the market goes further down.
I expect a retracement to the upside and potential to reenter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-12 10.35 GMT+1 GBPUSD.png Size: 213 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #27,445
  • Nov 12, 2013 3:42am Nov 12, 2013 3:42am
Quoting fxFox.mb
Closed GBPUSD scaled out by +81 (1/3) and +123 pips (2/3) between daily S3 and monthly S1, even if the market goes further down. I expect a retracement to the upside and potential to reenter. {image}
Nice trades mate
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #27,446
  • Edited 6:54am Nov 12, 2013 4:09am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} Thank you soo much my friend! It is very helpful to see both time frames TDI's on one chart instead of flipping back and fourth." Are there any "smooth" TDI indicator MTF ? A lot more easier on the eyes! {image}
It will be smooth on the same TF but look like this on higher TF on the same chart, I do not know if it can be resolved but it hardly make any diff.
  • #27,447
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:15am Nov 12, 2013 4:15am
GBP/JPY

Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 39 KB
Take what the market gives you.
  • #27,448
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:26am Nov 12, 2013 4:26am
Quoting Tiggrrr
GBP/JPY Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle. {image}
I am not so sure how great an entry this is...

This candle that you are looking at.. it's a news candle.... GBP can go flat, now, until a new session. I am most likely wrong, though, it's just how I see it and why I wouldn't short.
  • #27,449
  • Edited 4:55am Nov 12, 2013 4:37am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting Bizzzle
{quote} Nice trades mate
Thanks for the flowers - but often it is not as easy for me finding the right point between between fear and greed. It is always a weighing up, if you are already 120 pips in profit, to close or let run the trade (perhaps the move will not run any more) - regarding a much more higher stop loss on the bigger timeframes and see the action on the smaller TFs.
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #27,450
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:41am Nov 12, 2013 4:41am
Quoting Tiggrrr
GBP/JPY Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle. {image}

Hi I'm not sure either as the median is still rising (50+) ...but tdi has room ot the downside within rsi channel levels.

but this is where i get head pain.. any one else..?

scale it in and ensure a good sl.


aside is there such a thing as a tripple top??
( listening to calming meditation music + trading!)
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #27,451
  • Edited 5:18am Nov 12, 2013 4:53am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting Tiggrrr
GBP/JPY Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle. {image}
I follow Wdays. That could be an opportunity - but I think it is far from an ideal TMS entry.
I don't know where you've entered. If on break on the H1-range between 159.25 and 158.75 the r:r ratio would've been ok, but the regular H4-TMS-entry on my chart would have been at 11:00 GMT+1 at 158.24 nearly at the daily S1-fib.

On the daily we are stucking in a range with a little more bias to the upside and the one H4-candle (on news) retraced already 61% of the last up move, now staying at 158.37

just my point of view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-12 11.45 GMT+1 GBPJPY.png Size: 182 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #27,452
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:11am Nov 12, 2013 5:11am
Quoting Tiggrrr
GBP/JPY Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle. {image}

that is an ugly WRB.
this type of price bar exposes the Fear and Greed emotions of traders.

the market type is wide range sideways ...to the bullish side.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #27,453
  • Edited 7:31am Nov 12, 2013 5:30am | Edited 7:31am
Any Backtests for the H4-TF regarding the different GMT's with different Brokers?
The Backtest results I have done with GMT 0 are not so good as with Brokers using the +1 / +3 / -5 GMT's.
Means a lot more fakeys in GMT 0. Just my observation.
Maybe it's because most of the time News coming out @ 09.30 London time(mostly GBP-News) and @13.30 London time(mostly US-News).
So the Candles of the GMT 0 are still running 1.5 hours because they Open @ 08.00 .So with GMT +2 (now in winter ) the beginning of the next candle (which 10.00 ) is 0.5 hour before the News which I think is a better trial.
Because if you get a valid Signal before the News you can set a BE or TP just 5 minutes before the News.But if the Candle is still running for 1.5 hours most of the time the Trader ist not in profit. Just my observation with Backtests.
I am very intersted in your htoughts and any infos regarding this topic.
Thanks first.
Greeds Zack
  • #27,454
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:23am Nov 12, 2013 6:23am
Quoting Tiggrrr
GBP/JPY Isnt that a beautiful entry on 4H charts? Green through yellow through red with large candle. {image}
As WDays already said, it's a news candle (GBP CPI). Always check the news.

If you really do want to trade it (unrelated to TMS), put buy and sell stops before the news and watch the M5 chart. Exit when the momentum weakens.
  • #27,455
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:35am Nov 12, 2013 6:35am
Quoting Lane
{quote} As WDays already said, it's a news candle (GBP CPI). Always check the news.
So you mean dont trade any GBP pairs from the last H4 candle that appeared, since there is high impact news? I opened 6 trades back then, 5 of them is GBP pairs! It is on demo (still pratice).

Is there some good newsindicator for putting on the charts alerting about high impact news on the different pairs? It would be easier to have on the charts then check FF news calender on every new H4 candle.
  • #27,456
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:48am Nov 12, 2013 6:48am
Quoting LFN
{quote} So you mean dont trade any GBP pairs from the last H4 candle that appeared, since there is high impact news? I opened 6 trades back then, 5 of them is GBP pairs! It is on demo (still pratice). Is there some good newsindicator for putting on the charts alerting about high impact news on the different pairs? It would be easier to have on the charts then check FF news calender on every new H4 candle.
You only have to check the news once a day on the FF calendar to know where the news candle is on your chart.
  • #27,457
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:50am Nov 12, 2013 6:50am
Quoting LFN
{quote} Is there some good newsindicator for putting on the charts alerting about high impact news on the different pairs? It would be easier to have on the charts then check FF news calender on every new H4 candle.
I don't know and why would you need one? Just bookmark the calendar and check it every day
  • #27,458
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:55am Nov 12, 2013 6:55am
Quoting LFN
{quote} So you mean dont trade any GBP pairs from the last H4 candle that appeared, since there is high impact news? I opened 6 trades back then, 5 of them is GBP pairs!
It's not strictly connected with one currency. If EUR didn't move today despite the GBP move it doesn't matter it won't the next time.

I'm no fundamentals expert but last week when bad news for EUR went out, the CHF went too (logical) but the GBP spiked as well.

When you see a big candle on the chart and not aware of the news, check the calendar if there were any. If there were, it means to move will probably not continue. It's ok to trade 30 min - 1h after the noise, but don't count the candle/TDI cross as a TMS entry signal.
  • #27,459
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:00am Nov 12, 2013 7:00am
Quoting LFN
{quote} So you mean dont trade any GBP pairs from the last H4 candle that appeared, since there is high impact news? I opened 6 trades back then, 5 of them is GBP pairs! It is on demo (still pratice). Is there some good newsindicator for putting on the charts alerting about high impact news on the different pairs? It would be easier to have on the charts then check FF news calender on every new H4 candle.
The GBP pairs tend to move fast and move hard when there is economic data being released, concering Britain... This data is mostly released around 9:30 AM GMT. When the data is released, there is a 50-100 pip move, followed by a tightening consolidation throughout the rest of the day and sometimes even longer. Taking a trade based on TMS with the news candle being the setup candle is definitely not a great idea imho.
  • #27,460
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:03am Nov 12, 2013 7:03am
Thx for your replies on the news question.
Then tomorrow will be a no trading day, it is 4 different GBP high impact news under London open.
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