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  • #851,741
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:44am Nov 8, 2013 9:44am
Quoting cat
{quote} Hopefully you're on demo. The 4 hour candle closes in 30 mins, and there's always a strong possibility that it'll get sold down extra hard the closer to the close we get, so as always with forex, patience is a virtue. Trading what you would like to happen is a fool's game. If your charts say buy, then do so - if they don't, stay well away.
I had a small live position as well. It's OK, I risked <1% on both trades combined. I'm gonna stick to my original plan in the remaining EUR/CAD as I don't see any signs of EUR outperformance on the crosses reversing today. No weekend risk though.
  • #851,742
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:45am Nov 8, 2013 9:45am
If we still in wave 5 form the top (1.3830)...then price needs to go below 1.33 (low yesterday)
If not... then we are in a correction b.... if ended...normally above low wave 5 and we see a correction with wave c

.... both are possible now... I think

well at the and of this big down move (yesterday and today) .... we have a elliot pattern (expanded diagonal) started at 31/03/2013 (1,2,3,4,5) that can be ended at +/- 1.28.... (long term!)

example of expanded diagonal => see image

well I'm curious of my forecast is correct... I just started with Elliot wave pattern recognition... so don't blame me
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #851,743
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:46am Nov 8, 2013 9:46am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} It will not end today. It will be taken down all the way. Then let people have a good think in the weekend. Then spike it down on Sunday so everyone exits. Then, it's end.

a down move ending with a spike down? never seen that especially on eur usd
  • #851,744
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:49am Nov 8, 2013 9:49am
Quoting Farrusco
{quote} a down move ending with a spike down? never seen that especially on eur usd
Will have to wait and see. It's a common friday strat.
  • #851,745
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:52am Nov 8, 2013 9:52am
you try to foresee the move without seeing the market.. you must base your opinions on what happens on the market
  • #851,746
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:52am Nov 8, 2013 9:52am
short 1.3343 TP 1.3321 SL 1.3358
  • #851,747
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:53am Nov 8, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Farrusco
you try to foresee the move without seeing the market.. you must base your opinions on what happens on the market
your comment is for...?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #851,748
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:54am Nov 8, 2013 9:54am
for begginerjoe, I was once like him, now I only trade what I see
  • #851,749
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:55am Nov 8, 2013 9:55am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I had a small live position as well. It's OK, I risked <1% on both trades combined. I'm gonna stick to my original plan in the remaining EUR/CAD as I don't see any signs of EUR outperformance on the crosses reversing today. No weekend risk though.
Different game for Crosses. E/CAD not entirely depends on EURO.

Strong dollar + CAD = ?

You can do the math for E/CAD.
  • #851,750
  • Edited 10:46am Nov 8, 2013 9:57am | Edited 10:46am
Here's the intraday trendline -- unlikely to be a strong long entry signal but a break could be valid as an exit for shorts or you can try scalping shorts against it although here it looks like it could be breaking. Won't be trying +EUR/USD again though as already stopped out for .5% equity/30 ticks there today. Just gonna hold the EUR/CAD hopefully for a 30-50 tick gain.
Edit: the breakout held and we're supported for now.
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  • #851,751
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:57am Nov 8, 2013 9:57am
Quoting Farrusco
you try to foresee the move without seeing the market.. you must base your opinions on what happens on the market
Yes, everyone can see it's going down. But they can't see what happens after. That comes with experience.
  • #851,752
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:58am Nov 8, 2013 9:58am
Eur/usd hoovering around 1.38xx,
Traders say to go long. targets above 1.40
Fed "no change in QE" USD strengthen regardless
From there, all news from eur comes negative for the currency. Draghi cuts rates. eur continues to dive. Bad news from US doesn't matter, Eur continues down.
This happens over and over again
  • #851,753
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:58am Nov 8, 2013 9:58am
Quoting eurusd_trade
Here's the intraday trendline -- unlikely to be a strong long entry signal but a break could be valid as an exit for shorts
Or it's a reload opportunity.
  • #851,754
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:59am Nov 8, 2013 9:59am
news help the market meet its targets, but targets are already set, news only trigger
  • #851,755
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:01am Nov 8, 2013 10:01am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Or it's a reload opportunity.
It could be. But u usually can't go wrong exiting on a trendline break like that. Sometimes the trendline break causes a big break sometimes it just comes right back as you said. If you felt that strongly about the original direction you can just get back in at a better price. But if there's no trend-line/you're grinding above moving averages then the win probability is quite low
  • #851,756
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:02am Nov 8, 2013 10:02am
Want to see eur/usd touching 1.3300 mark in today's trade.....
  • #851,757
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:03am Nov 8, 2013 10:03am
if it passes 1.3365 then I'll take some shorts
  • #851,758
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:05am Nov 8, 2013 10:05am
Quoting eurusd_trade
Here's the intraday trendline -- unlikely to be a strong long entry signal but a break could be valid as an exit for shorts or you can try scalping shorts against it although here it looks like it could be breaking. Won't be trying +EUR/USD again though as already stopped out for .5% equity/30 ticks there today. Just gonna hold the EUR/CAD hopefully for a 30-50 tick gain. {image}
You sound very familiar
  • #851,759
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:05am Nov 8, 2013 10:05am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Different game for Crosses. E/CAD not entirely depends on EURO. Strong dollar + CAD = ? You can do the math for E/CAD.
Also fundamentally, Fed tapering is more bearish CAD than it is bearish EUR, no? (Notice the rally in EUR/CAD and EUR/MXN since the summer of 2012 which is largely Fed driven). Everybody has seen the big GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD breakouts out of multi-year ranges. The action on the EUR leg has been severely dampened by the recent data but definitely not for GBP. There's also GBP CPI and GBP unemployment next week (more potential fuel for longs) and EUR shorts seem crowded to me at the moment. Hence +EUR/CAD for me
  • #851,760
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:06am Nov 8, 2013 10:06am
Looks like similar setup from 1,3300 long rise from yesterday
COT: The precious data ignored
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