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  • #851,561
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:07am Nov 8, 2013 6:07am
Quoting KiwiTrada
my crystal ball prediction for NFP "everywhere" but "West"
analyst put low expected. number to get green number , now chef have to work little hard to come up with green number or red (in case govt. wants red number to blame shut down)

edit : did you finished counting bear money ?
Mohan
  • #851,562
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:15am Nov 8, 2013 6:15am
Quoting Greener
{quote} today is very much the case of choosing whatever side pays, since NFP data will be deeply affected by shutdown. I am just trying to figure out the extent of the move either up or down. I doubt the volume will be huge.
I don't see why we have to choose. I play volatility. If it moves, I get pips. I can tell you well in advance it will move. As for what direction, I don't particularly care.
  • #851,563
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:17am Nov 8, 2013 6:17am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} It is indeed Kuroro, since the rate cut was unexpected and some might have been on the wrong foot during the news, do you consider the possibility of above 1.3500s...? Just saying mate... I saw your post regarding 1.3160s in a few days but what I believe is that we will have this range for a while 1.3300 - 1.3500.

Hi Math, how are you? welcome back
  • #851,564
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:18am Nov 8, 2013 6:18am
I have a idea, lets do a NFP guess here!
I start.
158k
  • #851,565
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:21am Nov 8, 2013 6:21am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi Math, how are you? welcome back
Hey man... Thanks Just stopped by to see how everyone is doing. Am not posting much, don't actually log in, it has become a distraction last few months so the less FF the better for me atm.

I hope you are doing great mate... Trade safe...
  • #851,566
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:25am Nov 8, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Lottaa
I have a idea, lets do a NFP guess here! I start. 158k

Hey Pink, how are you hanging buddy...? All good I hope...
  • #851,567
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:28am Nov 8, 2013 6:28am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Hey man... Thanks Just stopped by to see how everyone is doing. Am not posting much, don't actually log in, it has become a distraction last few months so the less FF the better for me atm. I hope you are doing great mate... Trade safe...

Thanks, I am OK so far. Not so great but still alive Take care and trade safe too.
  • #851,568
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:29am Nov 8, 2013 6:29am
NFP expectations are very low. I think its understandable

But the only true trade here is short, since there is a real possiblity of a NFP suprise on the upside. It will be seen as gov. shutdown as not having a big impact on economy, it even can spread to taper expectations shift that would be EUR negative, more long liquidation yeah!
if it disappoints it will be seen as data "stained" from shutdown, therefor not reliable.
  • #851,569
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:29am Nov 8, 2013 6:29am
Quoting Lottaa
I have a idea, lets do a NFP guess here! I start. 158k
115
  • #851,570
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:30am Nov 8, 2013 6:30am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Hey Pink, how are you hanging buddy...? All good I hope...
Hellouu math :-)
  • #851,571
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:31am Nov 8, 2013 6:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh10811.png Size: 70 KB
  • #851,572
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:33am Nov 8, 2013 6:33am
number of NFP will be soo good
and we will see drop
but i'm confused , from where i short it,
3420, 3440-3450 , 3480 , 3515 , 3550
you might wait the next number, and wont come
  • #851,573
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:37am Nov 8, 2013 6:37am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} analyst put low expected. number to get green number , now chef have to work little hard to come up with green number or red (in case govt. wants red number to blame shut down) edit : did you finished counting bear money ?

nope swissy bulls paid bills

I have pop corn ready for circus in 1hr odd pa, GC bulls are trying to get some traction cable bulls are @ cliff Im thinking Cad data may over ride USD data, unusual day for nfp, could be strange pa, enjoy pop corn and its fireworks / guyfawkes time here now aswell, might be omen:nerd:
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #851,574
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:42am Nov 8, 2013 6:42am
Quoting julia2011
number of NFP will be soo good and we will see drop but i'm confused , from where i short it, 3420, 3440-3450 , 3480 , 3515 , 3550 you might wait the next number, and wont come
same problem and thinking:58, 83-87 or 3517 to 35. my bets are made on 83 loose sl to allow for 3535. targeting 1.3105.
dreams do come true.
  • #851,575
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:45am Nov 8, 2013 6:45am
Quoting Lottaa
NFP expectations are very low. I think its understandable But the only true trade here is short, since there is a real possiblity of a NFP suprise on the upside. It will be seen as gov. shutdown as not having a big impact on economy, it even can spread to taper expectations shift that would be EUR negative, more long liquidation yeah! if it disappoints it will be seen as data "stained" from shutdown, therefor not reliable.
It makes perfect sense. My only concern is that it looks like the entire retail market is shorting euro. Big boys will look at the order flow for sure. I am in but I am downsizing my open position now.
  • #851,576
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:47am Nov 8, 2013 6:47am
Quoting wannaberich
{quote} same problem and thinking:58, 83-87 or 3517 to 35. my bets are made on 83 loose sl to allow for 3535. targeting 1.3105.
agree
spike up to 3500 , then drop
  • #851,577
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:49am Nov 8, 2013 6:49am
My thoughts.

We just had a stop hunt for bulls. as seen by my fakeout on lower trendline of upward channel (intended to indicate massive bearish run, of course didn't happen). Would be rather timely for market to spike up to 1.35XX

Am I expecting that? no. But I have placed straddle on EURJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD2.PNG Size: 47 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #851,578
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:49am Nov 8, 2013 6:49am
Quoting Greener
{quote} It makes perfect sense. My only concern is that it looks like the entire market is shorting euro. Big boys will look at the order flow for sure. I am in but I am downsizing my open position now.
very wise and i also agree that if everyone is short the money to be made is by going higher... hence the 3483 with stops above 3535. if it gets past 3535 we might have a wtf day for most of us.
dreams do come true.
  • #851,579
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:50am Nov 8, 2013 6:50am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} nope swissy bulls paid bills I have pop corn ready for circus in 1hr odd pa, GC bulls are trying to get some traction cable bulls are @ cliff Im thinking Cad data may over ride USD data, unusual day for nfp, could be strange pa, enjoy pop corn and its fireworks / guyfawkes time here now aswell, might be omen:nerd:
Pass over some popcorn man. I will be too busy later.

Will be taking profits beforehand and let NFP fill me up again. Then take profits and rinse and repeat. I am going to hose them market makers.
  • #851,580
  • Edited 7:02am Nov 8, 2013 6:51am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting enterfx
{image}
in my opinion.... you placed the last a - b - c wrong....

a is the first top after de big dip yesterday, b = your a and c = your b

anyway.... the "new" c-wave can't be ended know because it has to go above the a-wave.... in that way the price shoot go up for know...
After that a new leg down (wave 5 from the top-price last-days) is forecast in this case...

well future will tell us in a half hour or so....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
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