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  • #851,461
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:11pm Nov 7, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting mohan76
Does ur broker have demo I should play with ur platform
I keep a small money at TDAmeritrade but I do not trade with them. Check what is the minimum deposit they need. I think maybe a few hundreds?

I trade with Interactive Brokers but their data is crap. Their speed is super fast though because they route directly to the market.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,462
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:35pm Nov 7, 2013 9:35pm
I am under the impression that the market will welcome soon Draghi's decision to deal with deflation risk in a timely manner. ECB is vigilant. Rate cut this time should be euro positive IMHO.
  • #851,463
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:37pm Nov 7, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting Greener
I am under the impression that the market will welcome soon Draghi's decision to deal with deflation risk in a timely manner. ECB is vigilant. Rate cut this time should be euro positive IMHO.
Euro positive? The purpose of the rate cut was to reduce the exchange rate.
  • #851,464
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:38pm Nov 7, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting Greener
I am under the impression that the market will welcome soon Draghi's decision to deal with deflation risk in a timely manner. ECB is vigilant. Rate cut this time should be euro positive IMHO.
what is your mechanism for the positive effect of rate cut on euro?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,465
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:42pm Nov 7, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting Greener
I am under the impression that the market will welcome soon Draghi's decision to deal with deflation risk in a timely manner. ECB is vigilant. Rate cut this time should be euro positive IMHO.
how can you make these statements at the same time?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,466
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:46pm Nov 7, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what is your mechanism for the positive effect of rate cut on euro?
I don't have any mechanism just thinking. Draghi anticipated the consensus on this rate cut as he realized prices were dropping fast in EZ. this down move today could be simply the effect of surprise instead of something fundamentally relevant. Deflation requires tight surveillance. However, anything is possible in the near term.
  • #851,467
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:53pm Nov 7, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I don't have any mechanism just thinking. Draghi anticipated the consensus on this rate cut as he realized prices were dropping fast in EZ. this down move today could be simply the effect of surprise instead of something fundamentally relevant. Deflation requires tight surveillance. However, anything is possible in the near term.
you said the market will soon welcome Draghi's decision to deal with deflation risk. How is he going to deal with deflation? He wants more deflation or less deflation?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,468
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:53pm Nov 7, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I don't have any mechanism just thinking. Draghi anticipated the consensus on this rate cut as he realized prices were dropping fast in EZ. this down move today could be simply the effect of surprise instead of something fundamentally relevant. Deflation requires tight surveillance. However, anything is possible in the near term.
With FOMC last week and ECB rate cut this week, you're saying this isn't "fundamentally relevant"? Denial's more than a river in Egypt lol. Have you read anything that Draghi actually said?
  • #851,469
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:57pm Nov 7, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} With FOMC last week and ECB rate cut this week, you're saying this isn't "fundamentally relevant"? Denial's more than a river in Egypt lol. Have you read anything that Draghi actually said?
I didn't hear the Q&A but he clearly said that EZ doesn't run any deflation risk in the near term.
  • #851,470
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:01pm Nov 7, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I didn't hear the Q&A but he clearly said that EZ doesn't run any deflation risk in the near term.
This was all about the deflation risk causing problems in PIGS countries with their austerity issues. From what I've read over several articles on the move the ECB seems to now be changing their policy in that they're going to be more aggressive. QE was even mentioned.

"The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low after a drop in inflation to the slowest pace in four years threatened its mission to keep prices stable. Policy makers meeting in Frankfurt today reduced the main refinancing rate by a quarter point to 0.25 percent."

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=456195
  • #851,471
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:02pm Nov 7, 2013 10:02pm
He also said that the rate cut was not intended to effect the currency exchange rate in any way.
It's called subtext.
  • #851,472
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:03pm Nov 7, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting dyee630k
He also said that the rate cut was not intended to effect the currency exchange rate in any way. It's called subtext.
How are you supposed to manage deflation without manipulating the exchange rate? lol
  • #851,473
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:07pm Nov 7, 2013 10:07pm
I am only saying that by anticipating the main consensus for an unchanged rate, Draghi proved that ECB is more vigilant on price stability than what we all think.

It's good to know also that they have ways to QE when needed but today they didn't discuss any particular QE strategy.
  • #851,474
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:09pm Nov 7, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting Greener
I am only saying that by anticipating the main consensus for an unchanged rate, Draghi proved that ECB is more vigilant on price stability than what we all think. It's good to know also that they have ways to QE when needed but today they didn't discuss any particular QE strategy.
do you know why rate cut will inflate a currency? it does not matter what consensus it is. A rate cut WILL inflate a currency.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,475
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:24pm Nov 7, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} do you know why rate cut will inflate a currency?
maybe but that's not the point. Price stability and long term growth is the main thing. Having QE tools is good too.
  • #851,476
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:27pm Nov 7, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} How are you supposed to manage deflation without manipulating the exchange rate? lol
Was referring to Greener's post "I didn't hear the Q&A but he clearly said that EZ doesn't run any deflation risk in the near term.

He also SAID that the cut wasn't to manipulate the exchange rate (it was just an unintended benefit that the ez really really needed )
  • #851,477
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:28pm Nov 7, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} maybe but that's not the point. Price stability and long term growth is the main thing. Having QE tools is good too.
Price stability is not the ECB's objective. Price moving to a level where trade conditions are favorable is the objective. Long term economic growth doesn't happen when your currency is too strong.
  • #851,478
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:28pm Nov 7, 2013 10:28pm
or maybe he said that b/c he knew that cutting the rate would automatically force the eur to drop
  • #851,479
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:33pm Nov 7, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Price stability is not the ECB's objective. Price moving to a level where trade conditions are favorable is the objective. Long term economic growth doesn't happen when your currency is too strong.
Yes. When your currency is too strong, your products are more expensive than other countries or regions. That will affect your trades. One analogy is WalMart. WalMart mostly sells things at the cheapest price. WalMart is the #1 supermarket in the world.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #851,480
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:35pm Nov 7, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} maybe but that's not the point. Price stability and long term growth is the main thing. Having QE tools is good too.
by "maybe" I meant maybe I know how a rate cut inflates currency. Price stability is ECB main objective. long term growth doesn't happen when currency is too strong for a prolonged time. Central banks have tools to intervene when currency is too strong.
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