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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #70,601
  • Nov 6, 2013 8:54am Nov 6, 2013 8:54am
From @zerohedge

"Sources" saying ECB rate change unlikely, LTRO not on top of agenda, EURJPY soaring taking ES with it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,602
  • Nov 6, 2013 9:12am Nov 6, 2013 9:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
From @zerohedge "Sources" saying ECB rate change unlikely, LTRO not on top of agenda, EURJPY soaring taking ES with it

sell @ 1.3540
This is my response to this source!
  • #70,603
  • Nov 6, 2013 9:18am Nov 6, 2013 9:18am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} sell @ 1.3540 This is my response to this source!
LOL

Not yet for me. I am looking to sell further up. Not sure where yet but probably around 3600
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,604
  • Nov 6, 2013 12:52pm Nov 6, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} LOL Not yet for me. I am looking to sell further up. Not sure where yet but probably around 3600

I think ECB will decide If we're going to reach 3600 or not
before that announcement from that source the market was expecting for a cut rate which means we're going down even before the real news, but for now longs will take over until they announce the news, that's why I have a feeling that somebody want this market to go up just to have a good point to short from
maybe I'm just guessing here, but time will tell
  • #70,605
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:25pm Nov 6, 2013 1:25pm
Howzit!

My real chart GU...





G/L
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  • #70,606
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:47am Nov 7, 2013 6:47am
ECB cuts across the board except for the deposit rate.

WooHoo

Maxwell returns

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,607
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:01am Nov 7, 2013 9:01am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} I think ECB will decide If we're going to reach 3600 or not before that announcement from that source the market was expecting for a cut rate which means we're going down even before the real news, but for now longs will take over until they announce the news, that's why I have a feeling that somebody want this market to go up just to have a good point to short from maybe I'm just guessing here, but time will tell
I had a good feeling about it ! and this exactly what happened
  • #70,608
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:04am Nov 7, 2013 9:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
ECB cuts across the board except for the deposit rate. WooHoo Maxwell returns http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfr9oRPIop8

Finally !
The best time for shorts to flip the table !
CHEERS
by the way, what's your expectation for Draghi speak?
  • #70,609
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:10am Nov 7, 2013 10:10am
Added E/U Short at 1.3377
SL at 1.3477
TP at 1.3100
RR: 2.8:1

EURUSDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,610
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:12am Nov 7, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} Finally ! The best time for shorts to flip the table ! CHEERS by the way, what's your expectation for Draghi speak?
Sorry I missed your post. His press conference went as expected except that I thought they would wait till December to announce an extension of full allotment on lending.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,611
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:18am Nov 7, 2013 10:18am
anybody else noticing the slow collapse of the SP500 ?

and what the hell is going on with eur ?
  • #70,612
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:19am Nov 7, 2013 10:19am
Quoting lumesh
anybody else noticing the slow collapse of the SP500 ? and what the hell is going on with eur ?

something weird is going on
  • #70,613
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:25pm Nov 7, 2013 3:25pm
sell-off Friday? it will be (hopefully)
I'm gonna take 50% of my profit before non-farm employment and If we get good number I'm sure we will see 1.31xx tomorrow
Again: I could be wrong and time will tell
  • #70,614
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:39pm Nov 7, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting Evanescence
sell-off Friday? it will be (hopefully) I'm gonna take 50% of my profit before non-farm employment and If we get good number I'm sure we will see 1.31xx tomorrow Again: I could be wrong and time will tell
The bar is set pretty low. Even if the shutdown created irreparable damage, beating those numbers should be a cakewalk.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,615
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:15pm Nov 7, 2013 6:15pm
D..chart .

E/J reversal or lie??131.1x may be the key!
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  • #70,616
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:20pm Nov 7, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The bar is set pretty low. Even if the shutdown created irreparable damage, beating those numbers should be a cakewalk. {image}
You guys had some pretty good calls on the ECB rate cut...what makes you think the NFP numbers will be better than expected?
  • #70,617
  • Nov 8, 2013 1:57am Nov 8, 2013 1:57am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You guys had some pretty good calls on the ECB rate cut...what makes you think the NFP numbers will be better than expected?
Those expectations are very low. We've seen the jobless claims numbers, employment components of the PMIs and the better than expected GDP. Okay they're not fantastic, but they are better than they were when the US was pumping out almost 200K jobs. So why now would the jobs be only 125K with a 0.1% uptick in the unemployment rate? The only way we're getting a low count is if the shutdown compromised the quality of the data and it would not be a reflection of the actual employment situation.... in which case the number might even be negative.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,618
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:38am Nov 8, 2013 6:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Those expectations are very low. We've seen the jobless claims numbers, employment components of the PMIs and the better than expected GDP. Okay they're not fantastic, but they are better than they were when the US was pumping out almost 200K jobs. So why now would the jobs be only 125K with a 0.1% uptick in the unemployment rate? The only way we're getting a low count is if the shutdown compromised the quality of the data and it would not be a reflection of the actual employment situation.... in which case the number might even be negative....
Hi PT,

As for the efficacy of the numbers, it was found that the data was more reliable than normal.

"The Labor Department addressed the issue of accuracy after the 1995-96 shutdowns and it concluded the data were no less reliable than usual. In fact, the delay of the December 1995 report by two weeks meant that the BLS received more responses to the payroll survey than usual, “enhancing the reliability of the preliminary estimates.”

I agree that the bar is low. If not for the talking heads, I am not sure anyone would have noticed the government was shutdown. The only caveat is that the unemployment rate should tick up due to methodology.

While the household survey will count furloughed federal workers as employed, the household survey will record them as unemployed, according to the Labor Department’s fact sheet on how the shutdown will affect the October employment report. The same happened during the late 1995 and early 1996 shutdown. On that occasion, payroll employment continued to rise while household employment fell.

http://www.ibtimes.com/us-october-jo...nfarm-payrolls
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,619
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:45am Nov 8, 2013 6:45am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi PT, As for the efficacy of the numbers, it was found that the data was more reliable than normal. "The Labor Department addressed the issue of accuracy after the 1995-96 shutdowns and it concluded the data were no less reliable than usual. In fact, the delay of the December 1995 report by two weeks meant that the BLS received more responses to the payroll survey than usual, “enhancing the reliability of the preliminary estimates.” I agree that the bar is low. If not for the talking heads, I am not sure anyone would have noticed the government...

Thanks for adding one more twist to the pretzel

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  • #70,620
  • Nov 8, 2013 6:54am Nov 8, 2013 6:54am
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