EURUSD

Nothing particular, 133.30 is just the current local MA boundary support and there are a number of stops concentrated below it

What happens if no rate cut, we go up and if there is a rate cut we go down?

in crazy forex could happen anything... but yes.

rate cut more complicated , very hard to predict short term reaction as fund may follow into stock and bond

On small TF that's the number to watch and how to exactly know number of stops concentrated below either sell stops or buy limits (bids or offers) or this take a bit of guessing.

they are going to raise the rate!

Fundamentally, it's a mess no? A rate cut will be a surprise and the knee-jerk will for sure be lower. A non-rate cut is expected so not much upside reaction probably. However, at 8:30AM there's GDP, that should cause a knee-jerk one way or the other and a poor number may re-ignite fears for a poor NFP. However, a poor NFP may also be discounted more than usual by the market if it's attributable to shutdown effects and not reflective of the job numbers in later months that will drive the Fed tapering timeline. Also it's hard to see Draghi completely negating the possibility of a December cut which means the uncertainty continues and I suspect the big funds will see little reason to make a big reversal of their shorts with another potential low inflation print next month...

Lots and lots of red with that move.

Yes sir, industrial production

EU still holding, after truth was unvelied...wait and see..

Bounce back now. Luckily i didn't panic and chop out.

I think in general the mini numbers like retail sales, claims, etc. are very poor at causing support/resistance breakouts directly (for US numbers, not to mention the mini-EUR numbers which are usually ignored except now everybody feels compelled to pay attention to them after the backdoor HIPC print which caught a ton of people flatfooted). For sure a good 3/4+ times the price tends to pop right back (as in this case)

For how long will it hold there before it goes either direction - we all know it should go down, but will big players allow it at this moment..

Major Level/Range on Weekly: 1.3509-1.3551.

We may be here a while. A surprise/Draghi conference might move us either way. Even after I don't see us breaking this range in ST, after knee jerk we may get back here.

The market will make the decision after the rate cut, i expect a move upwards to circa 13620, but from there it could test lows again in coming days but take things day by day.

Rate cut might catch a lot of people wrong footed, Rate cut should immediately take us lower, any reason for expecting 1.3620?

1.4018 soon.....no 1.330 right now....price upper 1.350....

I've exited my positions to take stock over the next hour or two.

Managed to turn some hairy positions on the USD/CHF back to minor losses.

The historics are that 7:45AM-8:30AM form one wave of price action, then today at 8:30AM we will have US GDP which will probably cause a knee-jerk, then of course the press conference is the main event... the GDP knee-jerk could cause a spike higher in EUR/USD if the number comes out as bad as people are expecting. Subsequently, the press conference could well send the EUR lower. But to be honest I expect the action to be frenetic (let's be fair -- FX is a cesspool dominated by the HFTs and they are way better in fast markets than I am) and I will be keeping any position sizes at a minimum. To avoid the GDP effect it may be better to do EUR/JPY or EUR/GBP instead of EUR/USD to remove the USD knee-jerk risk on GDP whichever way it goes. I might add a caution in -USD/JPY that there is a barrier at 99 that everyone's been watching and people are waiting for an excuse to knock it out (no idea about the timing however, it could go lower stopping out longs before the knock-out or it could just go up). Also I have the impression that EUR/USD will react more to GDP than GBP/USD so there really is no super safe option if you want to take a position right now... that's why this is no man's land...