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  • #850,941
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:05pm Nov 6, 2013 5:05pm
Adjusting time by 30mins seems awfully confusing.
  • #850,942
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:39pm Nov 6, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Falling asleep. will leave trade open. 3 pip SL @ weekly resist. that hasn't been broken. Will wake up tomorrow with 200 pips in profit .
Wouldnt count on it. This is second intraday retest of 98,8 zone and 98,2 got rejected very strong. We may got one more retracement and then its gonna break. You know pacman?
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I may move it a bit. Anyway, this is reason for SL. I have a S at 98,2 and believe it will not break on daily. But I can imagine intraday spikey like to 98,08, so thats why I moved it. edit: Imo not only that last spike, but whole form of bottom is suggesting heavy buying pressure below 98. Hope it works
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #850,943
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:40pm Nov 6, 2013 5:40pm
Seeing some evidence that there might be a new opportunity to short EJ...got out this morning but seems like institutions might be regaining their interest in shorting. Still holding long USD/CHF @ 22R profit so far. We'll see if the market gives a sign of what's to come or not.
  • #850,944
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:53pm Nov 6, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not enough time to look for a chart. quote a post, when asking a question and include a chart when asking about a chart
I allready quoted it before maybe you missed it.Here it is again.

Quoting okanemici
{quote} I understand, I will be able to make sure if this is a sneaky bull or a bear in a day or two maybe friday.But the price action I see fits in the sneaky bull price action in my mind.If pa does what I draw on chart 1-2 days more I'm sure it is a sneaky bull and possibly explode up friday. {image}
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  • #850,945
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:17pm Nov 6, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting Avir
{quote} How is the internet speed where you are mohan? north / south? And how do you find the trading time there?

south ,when comes to trading 1/2 h difference biggest killer getting used it , now i am on 3g internet not bad, have buy 450mb (cheap) / 1gb block each time, first few week too much confusion, now i have wifi hotspot on mobile and getting 1 Mb
Mohan
  • #850,946
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:23pm Nov 6, 2013 6:23pm
DB Spot Trading Morning Report:

EUR
Open 1.3513 Support 1.3460/80 Resistance 1.3550

Euro continues to consolidate and posts a small recovery ahead of ECB, it's capped at the 1.3550 resistance as the market pre-positions.
The market is expecting a dovish lean from Draghi tonight with some expecting a very slight chance of policy action. The event is key to the next direction so we will have to wait and see what unfolds, watch for a break of either 1.3440 or 1.3550.

AUD
Open 0.9525 Support 0.9460 Resistance 0.9550

Direction of AUD should be fairly binary today, we await the employment data which comes out at 11.30 AM Sydney time
Resistance should come in round 0.9550/60 initially, support down round 0.9490 and then 0.9460
I think this grind higher is a small up-tick in a downtrend, and that AUD should continue to head lower in the coming weeks

JPY
Open 98.65 Support 98.20(20 DMA) 97.70(200 DMA) Resistance 99.00(TL) 100.00
Open 133.35 Support 132.50(TL) 130.00 Resistance 133.85 135.50

USDJPY looked like buoyed at around 98.50 while EURJPY bounced back sharply onto 133s mainly with short-covering ahead ECB tonight.
Book-wise; Net light long-liquidation int on down side while upside looks balanced with offers and short-covering or stop-entry int.
No relevant local release this week. NFP tomorrow night, highlight of the week.
I am neutral on JPY as price action of USDJPY even on stable risk overnight is not that constructive and also just squared up cross-JPY ahead Aussie labour report later this morning.

NZD
Open 0.8380 Support 0.8350 Resistance 0.8420

Kiwi hanging on to gains after we had the pop above 84 cents
0.8375/80 should provide interim support whole 0.8350 is the break-out level post employment data and dips toward there should be bought
'Safe' yield looks like a good place to invest capital in at the moment and NZD should benefit regardless of EM moves
AUDNZD is once again a graveyard and longs will surely have learnt their lesson

CAD
Open 1.0418 Support 1.0400 Resistance 1.0450

Decent performance by CAD but the range looks well defined for the moment
AUDCAD and NZDCAD have found topside resistance tough to break and profit taking in those are advised

GBP
Open 1.6080 Support 1.5990/1.6020 Resistance 1.6120/1.6130

Cable opens close to the highs this morning as the UK data set continues to add to gains. Industrial production and Manufacturing Production both surprised to the upside. Unfortunately ahead of the BOE I think GBP should remain range bound as the ECB tomorrow morning and NFP release on Friday should have significant implications for the USD going forward.
RM demand for pounds has been a consistent theme in the last 48 hours. However, yesterday we started to see demand for GBP versus CAD from HF names. And going with that theme of owning GBP on a stronger payroll release we will look to own GBP versus YEN. A close over 159.20 will add to our conviction.
Remain long GBP versus AUD ,CAD JPY at the moment.

CHF
Open 1.2320 Support 1.2280 Resistance 1.2367/1.2400
Open 0.9115 Support 0.9030/.9070 Resistance 0.9166

USDCHF opens largely unchanged as the USD sees some light profit taking ahead of the ECB tomorrow. With very little in terms of US data today I think the USD may see some further profit taking…but dips should be short lived as many seem to be waiting in the wings to buy a USD dip after the missing the more recent move up.
Flows have been very light in Swiss so it should continue to track EURUSD price action. A move to .9050 would be a very good buying opportunity on the day.
Neutral CHF at present lvls but cant see the ECB cutting or -ve rates implied so USD could struggle vs EUR and CHF if the data doesn't print well in the US
  • #850,947
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:24pm Nov 6, 2013 6:24pm
BARCLAYS FX:

GBP

This time around UK IP and MP data came in above expectations and gave cable a boost up to yesterday’s high of 1.6118. We have since seen a mild pullback toward 1.6080 as US ISM data came in above forecasts and helped support the dollar. EURGBP continued its grind lower to 0.8379 on the better UK data but has since bounced back to 0.8416. Today we have the BoE, which is expected to result in both the Bank rate and asset purchase target remaining unchanged at 0.50% and £375b. Cable is in the middle of the 1.5894/1.6260 range and playing the extremes offers good risk reward, but the bias remains for the long side. Levels: cable support 1.6020, 1.5949, 1.5894 and resistance 1.6143, 1.6200, 1.6260. EURGBP support 0.8367, 0.8332, 0.8300 and resistance 0.8440, 0.8477, 0.8500.

EUR

The short covering related to speculation of no rate cut by the ECB today dominated euro and eur crosses among consistent offers toward 1.35 middle. It looks to be in another consolidation stage with support line at 1.3480-1.3500. The expectation of euryen demands related to the risk-on sentiment will work as a positive factor for ccy as well. On topside consistent offers will be expected toward yesterday’s high of 1.35 middle. Ahead of ECB tonight we expect the ccy to trade in small range 1.35 lows with mixed interests.

JPY

Usdyen and crossyen had constructive price actions along with stable stocks. Euryen rallied nearly 100 points on decreasing speculation of ECB rate cut today and it weighed on usdyen trading around 98 highs. For today, the expectation of higher Nikkei will support the pair with support line at yesterday low at 98.40 and Daily ichimoku cloud also will work as a supportive factor around 98.45-20. On topside consistent offers from Japanese names are expected above 99.00 and a clear break of trend line at 99.02 will provide us further topside room toward 99 middle. Ahead of this week main events GDP and NFP , the range bound will continue with a bid tone.

AUD/NZD/CAD

AUDUSD once again touched against the 21dma (0.9544) before pulling back to 0.9515. This level will continue to be the key resistance as it has been for the last week, and today’s main event will be Australia employment (fcast +10.0k) and unemployment (fcast 5.7%). We would like to remain bearish AUD in the medium term but think that we could see a short term move higher if the 21dma (now 0.9549) breaks. Levels: AUD support 0.9506, 0.9463, 0.9421, and resistance 0.9549, 0.9575, 0.9624. NZD held above the 21dma (0.8353) after the stronger than expected employment change numbers and traded up to 0.8415 during the London morning. 0.8353 will be the initial level to lean against for those who are bullish, and resistance will come in at 0.8446 (Oct 24 high). USDCAD pulled back to 1.0420 as WTI crude had a 1.5% bounce back and the dollar was offered against most of G10. Today we have Canada Ivey PMI data and the range will be 1.0350/1.0520 heading into payrolls.
  • #850,948
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:27pm Nov 6, 2013 6:27pm
JPM Asia Pac Morning Commentary:

USDJPY

Good morning from JPY

Risk back on but USDJPY stays inbound as DXY trails off. Set a range for the day and trade like a retail trader is the only way to survive the day right now. 98.30-98.80 is my set range for the day. Overnight we did see some good buying interest from a medium term player building into longs which I would like to follow but not just yet as there seems to be plenty of exporters interest and on top of that JPY buying redemption interest from UST coupons ( November redemption). Trade nimble.

EUR

MNI reported that overnight as the source said that ECB is unlikely to change the rate amid inflation dip(which only 3 out of 70 economists priced in for the refi rate cut for Nov) and EUR retraced some of the recent losses trading to 1.3548 overnight. A few sign of consolidation in EUR crosses as well were seen as EURGBP and EURAUD both holding 0.8380 and 1.4150. We arrived to find the EUR at 1.3515 and I will trade still with neutral stance at this level intraday as the short term players may want to use dips to sq up short term short hence trading 1.3500/50. Short term market is seeking if Dr.Draghi can deliver anything to break 1.3440 which I think would require something more than rate cut in coming meeting. Dips will remain shallow for now.

GBP

GbpUsd moved slightly higher, and market filled stop loss orders at 1.6070 and 85. But it didn’t move up side, even UK number is better. I think GbpUsd will be base 1.5990 level, but, it will stay in the range between 1.5990/1.6260 wide range. EurGbp also didn’t move, I think sell on rally is the right strategy. But, EurGbp daily chart made lower low and close higher than before the day. Market is getting short. I think today’s ECB will be important for Eurgbp’s next movement.

EurChf is unchanged and UsdChf is trading within range between 0.9090/0.9155. As long as EurUsd support 1.3440 , UsdChf will stay heavy. But trading lower than 1.3440 in Eurusd , Usdchf range will shift from 0.9090/0.9155 to 0.9140/0.9210.

AUD

Employment 1130am, JP +5k Mkt +10k

Unemployment, JP 5.8% Mkt 5.7% Prior 5.6%

All about employment today but even an outlier is probably best expressed on crosses given the US data out over the next 48 hours. Order book is biased topside with further pain above 0.9580 and resting bids for gamma in the region 0.9470/00. While broadly speaking I still like to be selling rallies conviction is low as I wait for the dust to settle. The cyclical economic story is still holding up well and until there is a deterioration locally or a trigger for broader USD strength the AUDUSD has found some form of equilibrium inside 0.9400/0.9600.

NZD

NZD…Mixed performance overnight having starred during the Asian session. Focus today briefly on the AUD payrolls data before shifting to tonight’s offshore action & onto NFP. Hard to see extended ranges in that environment. Impossible to deny the appeal on a basket basis as the economy continues to defy the norm. Strong resistance 8420/40 and don’t expect Asia to have the momentum to breach that level, 8320/30 will be well supported on the day. Use any dip to buy v CHF, JPY, CAD..taken EUR off till tonight. Have no view on what they will do, react accordingly.

AUDNZD…Remains under pressure after the stellar jobs data from our friends across the ditch. We don’t get a lot of AUD data for the next couple of weeks so today’s domestic payrolls will set the tone for the cross for the rest of the month. A weak print will see a break below 1.1290/1.1310 support (61.8% retracement of the recent rally from 1.1160 to 1.1580) and targets 1.1170/80. Focus will return to the divergence story and will be hard for bounces to be sustained. A better print we are back into range trading 1.1300-1.1500 (step to the left) with bias on being short given recent price action. I am square now looking to be reactive.

CAD

Capitulation of short term longs as the break out type players as Ivey surprised to the top side at 62.8 (52.0 f/c) sending the funds from 1.0450 to 1.0412. We are now back in the old 1.0400/1.0450 broad range bound until the Friday payroll but watch 1.0400 for the first trial as ppl find some values on 1.03 handle in USDCAD this year. For intraday would like to trade 1.0410/40 from long side. It is likely that AUD and AUDCAD likely to be the driver as the AUD job data standing on its way hence keeping an eye on 0.9850/9970.
  • #850,949
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:43pm Nov 6, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting mohan76
{quote} south ,when comes to trading 1/2 h difference biggest killer getting used it , now i am on 3g internet not bad, have buy 450mb (cheap) / 1gb block each time, first few week too much confusion, now i have wifi hotspot on mobile and getting 1 Mb
Tnx, While you are there Pls find out if Fiber available in C. ? or what is the fastest?.Tnx again
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #850,950
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:43pm Nov 6, 2013 6:43pm
Bastards fake again, this is a long audusd 0.9483 and long audjpy 93.62 right here
  • #850,951
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:53pm Nov 6, 2013 6:53pm
aussie got rejected for two tries at resistance 9540. I like it for my shorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #850,952
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:54pm Nov 6, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting ffleo
aussie got rejected for two tries at resistance 9540. I like it for my shorts. {image}
If bearish momentum continues I'll be buying.
  • #850,953
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:01pm Nov 6, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} If bearish momentum continues I'll be buying.
i saw you took a short on aussie some time ago. you still hold it?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #850,954
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:05pm Nov 6, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} i saw you took a short on aussie some time ago. you still hold it?
Nope I got stopped out on that one. Got out of my EJ short this morning too (for around 4.5R profit) but looking to get in again, see a nice little spot to do that from if price gets to it. Still holding my USD/CHF long though...haven't seen a reason to quit that yet. Long EURNZD on daily charts, might take a few days for that to start moving if it does though.
  • #850,955
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:15pm Nov 6, 2013 7:15pm
You Mofus, are we going to 1.4500 or not?
No ifs and buts, plain yes or no.

don't look down.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #850,956
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:17pm Nov 6, 2013 7:17pm
Going short EUR/JPY... 133.30. SL 133.80 TP 132.80. Don't think NFP will come out good and don't think TL support in EUR's going to survive the ECB.
  • #850,957
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:19pm Nov 6, 2013 7:19pm
so.. whats the euro consensus?

up propelled by antigravity ??
  • #850,958
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:20pm Nov 6, 2013 7:20pm
Today's ( 07-11-13) SR levelson MT4 Templates

Starting with AU, will post the other pairs later

AUDUSD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post7074125
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #850,959
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:22pm Nov 6, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} I allready quoted it before maybe you missed it.Here it is again. {quote} {image}

not much to do now but wait for Thursday and Friday. i still hold s and still scalp. most small charts are crap now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #850,960
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:27pm Nov 6, 2013 7:27pm
cable got rejected once at resistance 6120. the current momentum of dollar is bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_104.png Size: 16 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dowjonesdollar_105.png Size: 32 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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