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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,841
  • Nov 5, 2013 7:57am Nov 5, 2013 7:57am
Quoting bikov
Everything is possible, like 77.5 ; 80.25 ; 130.45; 42.02 etc... they are just numbers, who can say that some of them are out of question ? The only thing that a trader can control is position size and R/R ratio. Yes I know it's an old mantra but it's true. Buy or sell button is a matter of probability, if a position is placed according to the main trend on the bigger time frames (daily,weekly..) then the probability for success is much bigger than opposite. In this case, UJ looks bullish on w&m chart and neutral on daily. Long is the place to...

Absolutely spot on. When you say U/J looks bullish on weekly & monthly chart, you could even say that last month U/J went up last month, and also went up last week.

I was convinced we were headed up during the week starting 10/13, but it didn't work. Then I wasn't sure anymore. Now that last week was up and I'm trying to buy again. Simply buying green and selling red will eventually land you a profitable long term position, you just have to be disciplined.

For bears it makes a lot more sense to be selling around 100 because at that point we would have taken out last months high's and a bull trap is possible, similar to the week candle starting 10/13 that I mentioned earlier.

/ES falling off a bit right now.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,842
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:01am Nov 5, 2013 8:01am
Bank of Japan (BOJ), in order to achieve its inflation target outlined, it will continue the loose monetary policy to devalue the yen to export growth so strong I pair USD / JPY with immediate target is 99. 200
The following chart is showing strong growth:
Attached Image
  • #38,843
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:44am Nov 5, 2013 8:44am

  1. Aug 27, 2013 9:48am

Quoting Fx-gtg
usd/jpy daily chart{image}
it may visit lower based on same setup. well well below 96.95. med to long term
  • #38,844
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:08am Nov 5, 2013 9:08am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Just a joke, it gets bigger and bigger, currently 67:1. {image}
Do what's right for you
  • #38,845
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:12am Nov 5, 2013 9:12am
Quoting momochi
{quote}
Muechechechee .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,846
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:16am Nov 5, 2013 9:16am
TP at 98.50 for my long at 98.20...
  • #38,847
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:36am Nov 5, 2013 9:36am
Quoting zusch
{quote} Absolutely spot on. When you say U/J looks bullish on weekly & monthly chart, you could even say that last month U/J went up last month, and also went up last week. I was ....
If someone shows me the weekly chart of UJ and covers the bid/ask part(name of the pair) in the upper left corner and asks me what I see with only 3 seconds time for answering I would say up trend. That's it. If I start to analyze with 200,100 ema/sma, fibonacci etc.. it will get messy. I think it's not very radical to use this strategy on every pair at weekly for example. Maybe the time for observation should be longer - let's say 5 seconds .
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,848
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:18am Nov 5, 2013 10:18am
Just in the meanwhile, if you got time to read. Yet again, am not allowed to copy paste, so go read whole article .
Japan Inc earnings fuelled by Abenomics and weak yen
quote ft.com:
Such was investors’ disappointment in the two big-name global manufacturers* – which ought to have been gaining handsomely from a weaker yen – that within 24 hours they had wiped almost $6bn from their combined market capitalisations.

but quote no2:
According to data from CLSA, the brokerage, net profits at the roughly 500 listed groups that had reported before last Friday nearly tripled in the six months to September. That was better than many executives had predicted: total profits were one-quarter above companies’ own forecasts.

Whole article here.

*) Sony and Nissan
So may suggest Japan stocks are about to be doing well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,849
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:21am Nov 5, 2013 10:21am
Quoting bikov
{quote} If someone shows me the weekly chart of UJ and covers the bid/ask part(name of the pair) in the upper left corner and asks me what I see with only 3 seconds time for answering I would say up trend. That's it. If I start to analyze with 200,100 ema/sma, fibonacci etc.. it will get messy. I think it's not very radical to use this strategy on every pair at weekly for example. Maybe the time for observation should be longer - let's say 5 seconds .
Yup couldn't agree more. Should be a snap decision...if not then momentum will probably be bad.

Just flipped through the 25 pairs I watch in 1.5 mins and the only pairs that are interesting to me are USDJPY long and EURUSD short.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,850
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:42am Nov 5, 2013 10:42am
Quoting zusch
{quote} Yup couldn't agree more. Should be a snap decision...if not then momentum will probably be bad. Just flipped through the 25 pairs I watch in 1.5 mins and the only pairs that are interesting to me are USDJPY long and EURUSD short.

Yes, and I'll add gbp/chf long and aud/usd short (it looks a little bit tired )
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,851
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:50am Nov 5, 2013 10:50am
Quoting bikov
{quote} Yes, and I'll add gbp/chf long and aud/usd short (it looks a little bit tired )
AUDUSD short actually does look good too. May trade that in 5 hours. Nice catch. Seeing triple wick possibility on monthly chart that some would probably see as head and shoulders on daily chart.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,852
  • Nov 5, 2013 4:15pm Nov 5, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting jitu.ahuja
{quote} I am also praying tht yen get more weak wth eur, gbp and usd
As expected....a weaken yen. Lets see what the Asian market can offer.
  • #38,853
  • Nov 5, 2013 4:18pm Nov 5, 2013 4:18pm
Would have liked if U/J would have chopped sideways in the final 30 mins of my daily candle, but instead closed just below Monday's low.

I do believe the weekly low has been put in, just got to wait patiently for the weekly candle to start working. Once above 98.66, I expect momentum to pick up.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,854
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:07pm Nov 5, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Yup couldn't agree more. Should be a snap decision...if not then momentum will probably be bad. Just flipped through the 25 pairs I watch in 1.5 mins and the only pairs that are interesting to me are USDJPY long and EURUSD short.
I think you're wrong on both counts but that's what makes a market.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #38,855
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:17pm Nov 5, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think you're wrong on both counts but that's what makes a market.
What is your timeframe? That is what is most important.

I'm saying U/J will be higher and E/U will be lower by close of this week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #38,856
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:21pm Nov 5, 2013 6:21pm
[-webkit-auto][highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]"The Bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate."[/highlight][/-webkit-auto]
[-webkit-auto][/-webkit-auto]
[-webkit-auto]Same old BOJ story lines for months....wonder if the bull will bite this time round. [/-webkit-auto]
  • #38,857
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:22pm Nov 5, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think you're wrong on both counts but that's what makes a market.

I don't think that UJ is in downtrend although I'm aware that up trend could be easily transformed into opposite and about EU - it's at support zone around .3470 looking at daily chart. If it breaks it ( but not a fake one) there goes another one. If it don't..well, that makes the market.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,858
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:49pm Nov 5, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} What is your timeframe? That is what is most important. I'm saying U/J will be higher and E/U will be lower by close of this week.
U/J I expect to go lower before it goes higher. E/U I expect to go higher before it goes lower. It could however spike lower tomorrow before reversing higher before going lower. As always there are infinite possibilities on lower time frames, but even many possibilities on higher time frames.
Of the two, E/U is very clearly on the rack, having suffered a violent reversal and not recovered any of it. U/J has gone nowhere for a while whilst equities grind relentlessly higher. That's a divergence in my book worth paying attention to. But I have no crystal ball. It's just a best guess, and that is all any of us has.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #38,859
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:50pm Nov 5, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
98.2 long... 98 another long zone... sl just below 98 (97.9 area)...
SL move to 98.3 (to avoid sudden drop).... I still can re enter...

TP set to 99.5.. (Valid until NFP day)
  • #38,860
  • Nov 5, 2013 7:18pm Nov 5, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} U/J I expect to go lower before it goes higher. E/U I expect to go higher before it goes lower. It could however spike lower tomorrow before reversing higher before going lower. As always there are infinite possibilities on lower time frames, but even many possibilities on higher time frames. Of the two, E/U is very clearly on the rack, having suffered a violent reversal and not recovered any of it. U/J has gone nowhere for a while whilst equities grind relentlessly higher. That's a divergence in my book worth paying attention to....
Not sure how I could determine the accuracy of these opinions as you gave no definite timeframes.

Good to keep an open mind to "infinite possibilities" but I find it is necessary to have a sense of general direction.

So E/U clearly on the rack, but you say I'm wrong that it is headed lower?

U/J does not = equities market. Correlations are fine and I use them to a certain extent, but remember 2 yrs ago when A/U was highly correlated to /ES? Now that correlation isn't even talked about anymore.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
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