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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #70,581
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:53am Nov 4, 2013 10:53am
ECB Preview: hints, but no action? 6 scenarios
http://www.forexcrunch.com/ecb-previ...n-6-scenarios/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,582
  • Nov 4, 2013 1:41pm Nov 4, 2013 1:41pm
Italy's Mr Euro urges Latin Front, warns Germany won't sell another Mercedes in Europe
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...des-in-europe/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,583
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:17am Nov 5, 2013 2:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That is the big question for Q4. For that to happen we will need a big catalyst. Maybe very bad NFP numbers and an uptick in the US unemployment rate will do it, but at the same time, if the real economy in the EZ does not reflect the optimistic PMI numbers, and credit/liquidity in the EZ keeps shrinking, then that gets cancelled out and we go sideways. Based on the underlying macroeconomics and the technically stretched nature of all risk assets, I maintain that the risk is definitely to the downside. Therefore any buying of dips should...

From my point of view, we will break the support today
somehow I'm confident about it
time will tell
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  • #70,584
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:31am Nov 5, 2013 2:31am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} From my point of view, we will break the support today somehow I'm confident about it time will tell {image}
Yes that is quite possible as just below support, one will find many stop losses of the bulls. Therefore it is definitely a potential target for the big banks and hedgies.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,585
  • Nov 5, 2013 5:02am Nov 5, 2013 5:02am
BMW's Friedrich Eichiner doesn't expect deflation in Europe



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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,586
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:52am Nov 5, 2013 6:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
Short EUR/AUD at 1.4489 Target 1.4210 SL 1.4575 RR: 3.25:1 EURAUDCALL
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Moved SL down to 1.4535 New RR = 6.07:1 EURAUDCALL
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Moved SL to BE New RR= 1:0 EURAUDCALL
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} +210 pips in the green so far Moved SL to lock in 100 pips EURAUDCALL {image}
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Closed half position at 1.4210 for +279 pips Remainder floating with SL set to BE+100 EURAUDCALL
Moved TP down to 1.3520
Moved SL to 1.4310

EURAUDCALL
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,587
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:28am Nov 5, 2013 8:28am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} From my point of view, we will break the support today somehow I'm confident about it time will tell {image}
(is the chart attached?) this is basically what I think (hope) is going to happen. What say you all to the likely-hood of a retrace up to 1.36 or above and then dropping to break 1.3440?
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #70,588
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:36am Nov 5, 2013 8:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes that is quite possible as just below support, one will find many stop losses of the bulls. Therefore it is definitely a potential target for the big banks and hedgies.

Mission accomplished , From now until December I'll sell this pair in every correction we have for this two reasons :
1-The whole sentiment of the market is about selling this pair because of the last announcement from the Fed and it will be this way until Dec
2- Retail traders start to change from short to long
US good data will move this pair down in crazy way
US bad data will move it side way or up for some moments...
I could be wrong but time will tell
  • #70,589
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:37am Nov 5, 2013 8:37am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
{quote} (is the chart attached?) this is basically what I think (hope) is going to happen. What say you all to the likely-hood of a retrace up to 1.36 or above and then dropping to break 1.3440?

1.36? this month? I don't think so
but I could be wrong !
  • #70,590
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:48am Nov 5, 2013 8:48am
Quoting Evanescence
{quote} Mission accomplished , From now until December I'll sell this pair in every correction we have for this two reasons : 1-The whole sentiment of the market is about selling this pair because of the last announcement from the Fed and it will be this way until Dec 2- Retail traders start to change from short to long US good data will move this pair down in crazy way US bad data will move it side way or up for some moments... I could be wrong but time will tell
You've pretty much nailed the general sentiment of the market makers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,591
  • Nov 5, 2013 8:50am Nov 5, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
{quote} (is the chart attached?) this is basically what I think (hope) is going to happen. What say you all to the likely-hood of a retrace up to 1.36 or above and then dropping to break 1.3440?
Anything is possible, but like I said earlier... we will need a big catalyst to get up there.
If it happens, I'm levering up my shorts big time. (on PA confirmation of course)

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,592
  • Nov 5, 2013 7:05pm Nov 5, 2013 7:05pm
animal head ...a new pattern
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  • #70,593
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:27am Nov 6, 2013 4:27am
Quoting chess king
animal head ...a new pattern {image}
That looks like a bear
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,594
  • Edited 5:05am Nov 6, 2013 4:37am | Edited 5:05am
It's not looking too bright for the Eurozone. Another bad data miss on top of the terrible CPI, money supply, and unemployment.
The Euro has rallied mostly on weak USD and some hope generated from stronger EZ PMIs which didn't transmit into the real economy.

If the ECB does not do something in tomorrow's meeting, then I will be absolutely convinced that Draghi and the boys are just puppets on a string. There is no frickin way any other CB in the world would let a situation like this keep going without taking action.

Regardless of what they do tomorrow, it is clear to me that the EZ will lag all other economies and will still be in easing mode long after everyone else starts to tighten.... of they will face 2 lost decades through deflation... much like Japan did.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,595
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:43am Nov 6, 2013 4:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's not looking too bright for the Eurozone. Another bad data miss on top of the terrible CPI, money supply, unemployment and retail sales. The Euro has rallied mostly on weak USD and some hope generated from stronger EZ PMIs which didn't transmit into the real economy. If the ECB does not do something in tomorrow's meeting, then I will be absolutely convinced that Draghi and the boys are just puppets on a string. There is no frickin way any other CB in the world would let a situation like this keep going without taking action. Regardless of what...
The implication of lack of action by the ECB go much deeper that a protracted stagflation/deflation period. Without economic growth, deficits will continue to widen and debt to GDP ratios will continue to increase. Fiscal austerity is good, but it cannot stand on it's own. As long as sovereign bond yields remain high in the periphery, debt service becomes harder... and with zero growth, these yields will continue to climb. However, if the ECB actually eases more, then these yields will come down and provide some relief for the periphery even in the absence of fiscal easing.

Get on with it Draghi before you create another Japan.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,596
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:04am Nov 6, 2013 5:04am
Further proof that Germany is the only winner in this nutjob of a Eurozone
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,597
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:45am Nov 6, 2013 5:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's not looking too bright for the Eurozone. Another bad data miss on top of the terrible CPI, money supply, and unemployment. The Euro has rallied mostly on weak USD and some hope generated from stronger EZ PMIs which didn't transmit into the real economy. If the ECB does not do something in tomorrow's meeting, then I will be absolutely convinced that Draghi and the boys are just puppets on a string. There is no frickin way any other CB in the world would let a situation like this keep going without taking action. Regardless of what they do tomorrow,...

Do you really think a simple 25bps cut is gonna do much for the economy ?

Yes, the data suggest a cut...maybe they do it tomorrow, maybe next month.

But to change the game they must be way more aggressive in terms of future rate expectations to really have a meaningful effect on the currency and, to some extent, the economy. I don't know if they want that or do they see much difference.

The FED has done an "awesome" job on that front. All their rate expectations are down the toilet and lower.

All in all, i think it's good that the ECB is not (yet) following the FED path. If they did, the relative value of the USD would make the FED feel much more comfortable going on with its QE forever.
  • #70,598
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:48am Nov 6, 2013 5:48am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} Do you really think a simple 25bps cut is gonna do much for the economy ? Yes, the data suggest a cut...maybe they do it tomorrow, maybe next month. But to change the game they must be way more aggressive in terms of future rate expectations to really have a meaningful effect on the currency and, to some extent, the economy. I don't know if they want that or do they see much difference. The FED has done an "awesome" job on that front. All their rate expectations are down the toilet and lower. All in all, i think it's good that the ECB is...
They need a negative deposit rate. It's the only way the Euro can come down to levels that support export growth and at the same time compel banks to lend more to small business and consumers.
Unfortunately that will also cause some capital flight from the Eurozone, but in the long run it is best for Europe as a whole... not just the Eurozone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,599
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:56am Nov 6, 2013 5:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} They need a negative deposit rate. It's the only way the Euro can come down to levels that support export growth and at the same time compel banks to lend more to small business and consumers. Unfortunately that will also cause some capital flight from the Eurozone, but in the long run it is best for Europe as a whole... not just the Eurozone.

agreed.
  • #70,600
  • Nov 6, 2013 7:10am Nov 6, 2013 7:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That looks like a bear
yes it seems ...but let's see if it does not grow much tail!?
Bears have short tails...
if the tail is longer than the head so it's monkey.
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