EURUSD

exactly, very low data maybe in 4hrs might get some action AU for now they are all in battle mode, equilibrium,

1 hourly swissy has finally printed a hh aussie is looking really interesting, printing a rising channel I have a monthly in there Im thinking is still in play 9502 physc 9500 kiwi also interesting I was thinking she was building a bottom over the last 7 days, but there is a 4hr 200 50 sma cross so now undecided similar with cable, even geppys ma,s a trending down so yep agree bro be patient
asia pacific session so focusing kiwi aussie

I would be really surprised if this stays below 1307. What makes you think of 1150 gator ?

So, what are your forecasts for tomorrow? Short or long?

In general, do you think is going to break the TL or will it go through the second shoulder?

Citi FX wrap

· The USD failed to maintain its upward momentum from last week on Monday but bulls shouldn’t fret yet. Tight ranges are best explained by broad hesitation ahead of this week’s ECB and NFP.

· Investors busied themselves with Fedspeak and some data for the USD, GBP and EUR.

· The Fedspeak took precedence. Our Head Stir trader in London found comments from Bullard and Williams to signal a shift internally with the Fed’s desire to taper.

· Rosengren also presented some analysis. A chart showing the difference in the size of the central bank’s balance sheet under two hypothetical scenarios - reducing purchases beginning in December or beginning in April.

· “…the point of the figure is that start dates differing by a quarter or two would generate only relatively small changes in the overall size of the Fed’s balance sheet,” said Rosengren.

· Weak PMIs from Spain, Italy and France were ignored. Instead, a better than forecasted final German manufacturing PMI (51.7 versus flash 51.5) saw EURUSD rally towards session highs of 1.3510 and retain that bid towards 1.3525.

· A new CitiFX Poll has been posted. Finally, we are asking something other than when the Fed will taper. The latest Poll seeks to bring clarity to one of the universe’s other great unknowns - When will the ECB cut its refi rate? Click here to see the results and share your opinion.

· USDJPY found little to be inspired about with Japan on holiday. Still, the consensus view seems to be a buy on dips, at least while it holds above 97.80. The range of Monday’s session was just 98.55/98.75 in NY and Europe, though our NY JPY trader expects a break either way shortly.

· “The strong triangle pattern is about to break either side, so need to be cautious of breaking 97.30-99.10,” he says. Click here for a key chart along with other key levels to watch.

· Release of UK October Construction PMI was quite supportive for GBP. This came in at 59.4 from 58.9 in September and is at its highest since September 2007. Results led cable to highs near 1.5980/70, which is roughly were it settled.

· There was talk of an Asian FX reserve manager on the bid lower; we didn’t see it so can’t confirm.

· It’s worth acknowledging that GBP 3m Libor has increased by 0.625bps over the last two trading sessions; the biggest two day increase since late 2011. However, there’s been no substantiating price action in the cash or credit markets to explain this, leaving our desk inclined to attribute this to mere noise than anything else. Still, we’ll keep a close eye on price action in the near term.

· CitiFX Strategy expects more EURGBP weakness ahead of the ECB and BoE. The market looks for ECB easing before long, while the BoE could upgrade its economic projections next week.

· We saw (and heard of) good selling interest in AUDUSD at and above the 0.95000 figure, though the pair remained bid. The bulk of supply here came from the real money community, while leveraged names were net buyers here.

· There was a lot of chatter just before the NY open about who was buying AUD, with Market News reporting that it was AUDJPY related.

· Now all eyes are on the RBA. “No change in interest rates is likely and there appears to be scope for policymakers to remain on the sidelines in the short term, so a shift in the Bank’s forward looking guidance may be similarly unlikely. This means that the key question for markets is whether the RBA ramps up its opposition to exchange rate strength,” he says.

· Elmer adds: “Following Governor Stevens’ comments last week, we believe risks favor somewhat stronger verbal intervention by the RBA which argues for short AUD positions approaching the meeting.” Click here to read his full analysis.

· However, it is worth noting that, as our local economists state, “momentum is picking up” and that “recent data continue to run ahead of expectations.”

· USDCAD opened heavy in NY, targeting the 55d and 100d MAs below the 1.0400 figure. However, with strong support found at that level, it is back towards 1.0425. While it also awaits NFP, remember that it’ll see its own employment report Friday.

· With the House not in session this week, there might not be a great deal of updates for the public regarding US debt debates. However, we still have clues to look forward to.

· Political races will be taking place across the country on Tuesday, November 5, with Republicans and Democrats alike particularly focused on the special primary runoff to replace Republican Representative Jo Bonner in Alabama. Why? Because it represents another test for control ahead of the upcoming debt deadlines between competing Republican factions - the far-right, tea party versus the other conservatives. Click here for more.

· In the case that you’re looking to play USD strength into the year end, our options desk has a few leveraged bullish ideas for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF.



EM in focus

· Active currency managers reduced long exposure to EM and replaced commodity currency shorts with GBP and SEK last week. The Positioning Indicator for GBP reached the lowest possible level of -3. Click here for the full report.

· South Korea Finance Minister Hyun gave traders something to think about. Hyun said that Korean exporters are less sensitive to FX rates than ever before.

· “We have been steadfastly bullish KRW on a fundamentals basis, but have resisted positioning because of strong intervention. We estimate there was almost USD10bn of intervention in October alone,” said our KRW trader after the comments. “Perhaps this represents an opportunity?”

· TRY local markets were off to another poor start following a strong CPI print. This came in at 1.8% versus 1.30% expected, further supporting the case for tightening despite a challenging environment.

· Broad based USD strength led to further short covering in PHP even without help from the BSP, who were last seen early last week at the familiar "line in the sand" levels of 43.00/10.

· Our trading desk notes that the pair broke key near term resistance at 43.25/30 Monday. With momentum indicators (RSI and DMI) all pointing higher, we could probably see a test initially of the 100d MA (43.45) and cloud resistance starting from 43.60-85 area.

· Note that there is also a developing convergence between the 55d MA (43.59) and the 100d MA, another resistance pattern.

· Earlier in Europe we saw some interest from real money and macro accounts to sell USDAsia, namely TWD, MYR and PHP. The NY session was moreso quiet.

my cot chart prediction turned out nicely

Nicely done.

And, as far as your attitude towards trading, kudos.

Win some...Lose some...

Meh!

NFP is not going to change a trend. It may cause spike, but the spike effect will fade away in a few days and the original trend continue.

Actually...I think this is kinda subjective.

The current trend, is that we are still long on the year.

The daily trend is looking like a retrace to supported areas on the year, aka, short trend.

So, in all actuality, we could hover in support, or the short daily trend and come NFP, spike back into the yearly trend.

So, wuh....Yeah, depending on which trend you are talking about, we could in fact see a change in trend.

What can you do? I thought I would share what I perceived to be an excellent opportunity to be told I should "do something else pal".

Like I said at the time I'll hold it rich or poor, I've a fair chance of being taken out of this trade, but oh well that's forex, happy hunting all.cheers

I didn't pretend anything boy, I watched your trade slowly grind into dirt.

See here's the thing boy, to have a market you need two people with differing ideas. I suggest in future you show more respect for those with differing opinions, especially those that put their trade out live for all to see, otherwise you have no forex? So if I go do something else, then what boy?

Sometimes the the right thing to say is, yep that went your way today, good job. Oh and not berate others moves.

Actually, in case you missed it for not being in quotes...

The dude had you mixed up with somebody else and offered up an apology.

And, this being said...

I think the pair of you should be comparing more charts in the thread. Really, the perspective that you offered between ya, quite invaluable.

If we get a move against the recent market impulse I'm out. NFP is just as influential as FOMC in creating new movements.

Ah yes I do see, apology well accepted, except telling me "I need to do something else pal" That kinda statement lacks any understanding of forex or markets in general, after all you want someone to be wrong

Yes they all at critical level, patient is needed here.

but movement is very slow, I almost fall in sleep.

Short EUR/NOK target 2200 pips

No man, i wasn't commenting on the entry - not at all. I just was commenting on the way you frame it with a trend line reasoning ... of course its your right to reason any trade with anything that you want, but it was the only reason i read ! My problem is , trend lines could be nice sometimes - but the high subjectivity in drawing them and changing angles on different time frames make them unreliable sometimes!

Now, i had the chance to have a look on your entry - it was just under the monthly low , and i totally forgot to check the monthly levels ... so, in hindsight it was a good place to look for a counter! So, i'm glad it worked for you and you man good pips over them. my sincere wishes for you next profitable trade

yup you are right. there is still room to the upside. This up trend is not completely finished yet. by that i mean i expect it to bounce up and down for a while near the monthly trendline above. I have speculated some number like 3950, and other people gave numbers like 4000. However I think we are near the end of this up trend, probably by the end of this year or Jan next year.

NFP is influential, but it is a monthly data. each month has a NFP release, and each month's NFP can be quite different. But FOMC usually do not change from one FOMC from another FOMC quite often. But once FOMC change its tone it is going to be a long term tone and the reaction is drastic. FOMC set long term tone, NFP makes spikes.

Good save.

Cuz, my next question would be, are you buying or selling into NFP...

And, yeah, just like any trend, there will be an end, especially looking at the yearly candles.

Thing is, we have a lot more room topside that I think we are going to see, it's just that whole market clock thing we talked about.

I have an idea where we are going to tend, but when you put it into the yearly perspective, pin pointing targets gets to be a lot bigger challenge.

You are starting to come around nicely.

Or, I am bipolar and this is my nice swing...

In any case, might well enjoy it while it lasts...I could snap at any time.

As to buying or selling into NFP, i would assess the trend continuation, retrace, or reversal possibility first, to set up plan for entry point for either sell or buy. If the NFP spikes to my entry point I will enter, but if it spike the opposite way from my entry point I will wait out. I currently have no plan for euro yet cause I hold aussie shorts, and I do not want to increase my exposure to more risk.

As to bipolar personally, well, who does not have it a little bit once in a while? My woman often say Im crazy, bipolar, but she still sticks to me.