EurAnalysis | Page 3526 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #70,501
  • Oct 31, 2013 3:49pm Oct 31, 2013 3:49pm
closed my short from 1.3761

really had to fight myself trying to decide the best course of action managing this position, figured i'd jump in for more after a little retracing as we approach a fairly strong support around 1.3566 and place limit orders if we decide to plow down through

always an interesting topic of discussion, curious to see how others like to manage. I had the position covered with SL past BE but still felt uncomfortable given the historical support and # of consecutive days of price falling, am I letting my emotions get the best of me?
  • #70,502
  • Oct 31, 2013 3:57pm Oct 31, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting neuron
closed my short from 1.3761 really had to fight myself trying to decide the best course of action managing this position, figured i'd jump in for more after a little retracing as we approach a fairly strong support around 1.3566 and place limit orders if we decide to plow down through always an interesting topic of discussion, curious to see how others like to manage. I had the position covered with SL past BE but still felt uncomfortable given the historical support and # of consecutive days of price falling, am I letting my emotions get...
Nobody ever lost money taking profits. It's the complacent ones that give it all (or most of it) back. You did well. Support is close by. If you've captured more than half the move, you've done much better than 95% of retail traders. Now sit back and enjoy a glass of your favorite poison
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,503
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:11pm Oct 31, 2013 5:11pm
thank you! i definitely will

it's at these times after successful trades i'm most afraid of myself, need to keep a critical technical mindset looking at the charts and keep emotions at a minimum.
  • #70,504
  • Oct 31, 2013 7:11pm Oct 31, 2013 7:11pm
Well, I just take 50% of my profit from 1.3780 and I'm willing to add more sell orders If we have weekly close below 1.3660
The whole market expecting taper to happen in Dec so from now till Dec bears will have the upper hand!
  • #70,505
  • Oct 31, 2013 8:17pm Oct 31, 2013 8:17pm
small limit order @1.357 filled, looks like we're back in the game thinking SL 1.36 TP1 1.3515
  • #70,506
  • Oct 31, 2013 11:15pm Oct 31, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} As long as the Fed keeps saying that the economy is improving and we also see decent employment numbers, even if they don't mention taper, the market will continue to adjust pricing for an earlier taper... (Earlier than April '14 that is )

Hi PT,

So yes, the Fed statement increased the odds of taper sooner but I think it will be repriced again.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101160545
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,507
  • Nov 1, 2013 2:14am Nov 1, 2013 2:14am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi PT, So yes, the Fed statement increased the odds of taper sooner but I think it will be repriced again. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101160545
Nomura talking for the benefit of their book again. They do it all the time. Their MO is to cast doubt on any seemingly strong sentiment because it upsets their trading strategies. The statement about Yellen waiting to get her feet wet and get comfy in her new position is poppy cock in my opinion. Yellen has already been there for many years right by Bernanke's side, so if her feet aren't wet yet, they never will be.

All that being said, I'm not saying the guy is wrong... I'm just saying that when it comes to Nomura (or any other major player) making statements after a highly anticipated event, you gotta take it all with a grain of salt... and the other major players in the market who actually move price don't listen to these guys... they just do their own thing. CNBC appearances are only for us retail trading chumps.

Just go with the flow on this one and ignore the lies and deceptions. Look at your charts and the actual econ data that would influence monetary policy. Never mind the pundits.

...and that's my 2 cents
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,508
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:22am Nov 1, 2013 3:22am
Quoting Evanescence
Well, I just take 50% of my profit from 1.3780 and I'm willing to add more sell orders If we have weekly close below 1.3660 The whole market expecting taper to happen in Dec so from now till Dec bears will have the upper hand!
1.3450/60 area I expect a bounce. However, I think it will only be a small one and it will continue down hard towards 1.3200
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,509
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:49am Nov 1, 2013 7:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Nomura talking for the benefit of their book again. They do it all the time. Their MO is to cast doubt on any seemingly strong sentiment because it upsets their trading strategies. The statement about Yellen waiting to get her feet wet and get comfy in her new position is poppy cock in my opinion. Yellen has already been there for many years right by Bernanke's side, so if her feet aren't wet yet, they never will be. All that being said, I'm not saying the guy is wrong... I'm just saying that when it comes to Nomura (or any other major player)...
Yes, PT, I agree on not listening, but I posted the article as I tend to agree with the idea that taper needs to be repriced. Guess I should have been more clear.

Market had I would say March 2014, then we get a couple of sentences that are perceived as less dovish and now it is Dec? I don't think so. Have the odds increased? Yes, but by how much? I would consider it extremely unlikely that the Fed will feel comfortable enough on Dec 17-18 to start taper. Plus, that does not seem like the time of year to start to taper especially considering market conditions.

I understand the point about Yellen, but she will only, at most, be one month into the job at that point.

Then we have Jan and Feb to focus on another debt ceiling and who knows what the political landscape will look like and how likely another shutdown may be?

I am no proponent of QE infinity nor a EU bull, just do not see the taper reprice of this week as realistic. As much as I hate it, this chart that I posted in the Club a week ago last Sunday, nothing has changed. We had the level to sell, now I see levels to buy and still a chance to push higher.

Then again, I could be on the wrong side of my much anticipated EU short to zero.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily111.jpg Size: 180 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly1022.jpg Size: 195 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,510
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:00am Nov 1, 2013 8:00am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Yes, PT, I agree on not listening, but I posted the article as I tend to agree with the idea that taper needs to be repriced. Guess I should have been more clear. Market had I would say March 2014, then we get a couple of sentences that are perceived as less dovish and now it is Dec? I don't think so. Have the odds increased? Yes, but by how much? I would consider it extremely unlikely that the Fed will feel comfortable enough on Dec 17-18 to start taper. Plus, that does not seem like the time of year to start to taper especially considering...
I agree we probably won't get a taper in December, but really nobody knows exactly when it will happen because it's going to be based on econ data such as unemployment rate, financial conditions and personal spending (primarily) and inflation expectations (secondarily). The possible debt ceiling / budget deadlock does not price in yet. That will happen if we get to that bridge. In the last 6 weeks the market has priced in the worst case scenario for the US economy as a consequence of the clown fighting in DC only to hear the Fed saying that the economic situation has improved, especially financial conditions and employment prospects. Therefore what we see now is a re-pricing of those dire expectations to a more sober outlook. At least that's how I see it anyway.

Now on top of that, you have to look at the EZ situation. The optimistic PMI figures never translated into real economic growth and therefore expectations were not met. Inflation is falling way too low, liquidity is drying up again and the EZ sovereign bonds are overbought... Not to mention the Euro itself.

Combination of the above two factors scream for a major adjustment (re-pricing) not only for the associated currencies, but also for the equity markets. At the very least, these events have started a topping pattern. Can risk asset prices go higher from here? Absolutely they can, but not for long and not without negative consequences to the respective economies.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,511
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:16am Nov 1, 2013 8:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I agree we probably won't get a taper in December, but really nobody knows exactly when it will happen because it's going to be based on econ data such as unemployment rate, financial conditions and personal spending (primarily) and inflation expectations (secondarily). The possible debt ceiling / budget deadlock does not price in yet. That will happen if we get to that bridge. In the last 6 weeks the market has priced in the worst case scenario for the US economy as a consequence of the clown fighting in DC only to hear the Fed saying that...
Thank you for the response PT. I think mostly we are on the same page.

Sorry, I really do not watch or listen to CNBC, but this is a good one.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101159415
Did the Fed just say December?

Better, but not great(although they used to be.)

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...icy-statement/

IMO, Fed statement was overall dovish as
1) housing showed it can not take any increase in mortgage rates now and unemployment is getting worse not better
2) the only reason financial conditions improved is because Ben decided to surprise the market and not taper
3) yes, thanks we know, when the economy improves, you will stop printing $1 trillion
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #70,512
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:35am Nov 1, 2013 8:35am
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses Data Dependency of Tapering and Current Policy Tools
http://www.stlouisfed.org/newsroom/d...m?article=1973
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,513
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:38am Nov 1, 2013 8:38am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Thank you for the response PT. I think mostly we are on the same page. Sorry, I really do not watch or listen to CNBC, but this is a good one. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101159415 Did the Fed just say December? Better, but not great(although they used to be.) http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...icy-statement/ IMO, Fed statement was overall dovish as 1) housing showed it can not take any increase in mortgage rates now and unemployment is getting worse not better 2) the only reason financial...
Well written with a good dose of humour
Well all I can say is that the reality doesn't matter. All that matters is the perception to which the market reacts... and we can see it very clearly in the charts right now. How long will this last before it reverses? Probably till Tuesday or Wednesday. After that we're sideways till ECB Thursday and NFP Friday. So for now I am riding the selloff. Next week I will re-evaluate.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,514
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:32am Nov 1, 2013 9:32am
I see another bet is brewing... Who doesnt believe that E/U will come back to the highs and above?
69
  • #70,515
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:01am Nov 1, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Likerty
I see another bet is brewing... Who doesnt believe that E/U will come back to the highs and above?
Now that 3710 is breached to the upside and the falling trend line was not reached, more upside is possible so I'm not taking this bet.
However, what I will bet with you is that we will not see a weekly close above 1.4550 this year.

By the way, the October candle closed below 3710.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,516
  • Edited 11:46am Nov 1, 2013 10:11am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Now that 3710 is breached to the upside and the falling trend line was not reached, more upside is possible so I'm not taking this bet. However, what I will bet with you is that we will not see a weekly close above 1.4550 this year. By the way, the October candle closed below 3710.
euro needs to take .3460/70 out....hopefully today...shooting star october
  • #70,517
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:21am Nov 1, 2013 10:21am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} euro needs to take .3460/70 out....hopefully today...inverted hammer october
Never mind 3460/70 (not minimizing its significance as support) but we're heading down to break 2750 now... probably as low at 2500. Whether or not we see one more push up before we go down is a different story. However, I think that as long as US data remains positive, the top in the Euro is already in.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,518
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:24am Nov 1, 2013 10:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Never mind 3460/70 (not minimizing its significance as support) but we're heading down to break 2750 now... probably as low at 2500. Whether or not we see one more push up before we go down is a different story. However, I think that as long as US data remains positive, the top in the Euro is already in.
i dont think 60/70 is a huge support i just want it out...c the bounce bcs lots of ss will be placed there ..imo
  • #70,519
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:31am Nov 1, 2013 10:31am
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} i dont think 60/70 is a huge support i just want it out...c the bounce bcs lots of ss will be placed there ..imo
I don't think it is huge support in the sense that it is "strong". I just think it is significant in its importance as the delimiter between bulls and bears.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #70,520
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:33am Nov 1, 2013 10:33am
A view from 5000 metres (16,666.7 feet)


Eurozone Data
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EZData.png Size: 35 KB


vs US Data
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USData.png Size: 36 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
20 traders viewing now