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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,261
  • Oct 29, 2013 11:33pm Oct 29, 2013 11:33pm
Hi All,

GBPJPY H1 PA Still bearish, and make Lower High ... now to be test to Lower Low 157.15

Cheers
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  • #9,262
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:32am Oct 30, 2013 12:32am
157.7 strong resistance from yesterday and gj will break them cause ej otw to 135.my tp 158.2 at the end tp 160.
  • #9,263
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:35am Oct 30, 2013 12:35am
Quoting khol_hands
157.7 strong resistance from yesterday and gj will break them cause ej otw to 135.my tp 158.2 at the end tp 160.
sorry 157.57
  • #9,264
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:41am Oct 30, 2013 12:41am
Quoting smash1820
How goes it, fellow traders??? Been taking a break for a bit... trying to get back in the groove and all. It's been an interesting week so far with those JPY retail sales last night as I'm pretty sure it's the reason for the yen strength as of late. Unfortunately, I haven't traded it as well as I would have liked. How about for the rest of you guys? This thread sure has been dead lately.

Same here...trying again from the ground...interesting week indeed, i didn't trade quite according to the plan either... looking to short it somewhere higher, maybe around 158.2 with tight SL... we'll see...
  • #9,265
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:52am Oct 30, 2013 12:52am
Quoting khol_hands
157.7 strong resistance from yesterday and gj will break them cause ej otw to 135.my tp 158.2 at the end tp 160.

Yap, there was a nice bullish pin on daily, so it is likely that price will try running up, but pin is just below traffic zone, i suspect it won't go far up... however, if 158.2 area won't hold i agree 160 could be destination...
  • #9,266
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:03am Oct 30, 2013 2:03am
so ffar no matter how you slice and dice it....this pair is bullish frm the august lows it could only make a .382 retracement and is boncing off a trend line making higher lows and is carving out a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern...lets enjoy the ride higher
  • #9,267
  • Edited 8:24pm Oct 30, 2013 8:05pm | Edited 8:24pm
Weird action... I don't get why FOMC minutes are such a big deal if everyone was expecting them to not do anything. Would anyone care to explain this?!

It seems to me that the market does not like this QE-infinity ordeal... anymore.
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  • #9,268
  • Oct 30, 2013 8:33pm Oct 30, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting ninner
so ffar no matter how you slice and dice it....this pair is bullish frm the august lows it could only make a .382 retracement and is boncing off a trend line making higher lows and is carving out a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern...lets enjoy the ride higher
I see a complete 5 wave move, A-B, and now in the C wave, this is potentially start of iii down. careful longs.

full disclosure: (very) short GBP/JPY.
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  • #9,269
  • Edited 3:24am Oct 31, 2013 3:03am | Edited 3:24am
I don't like the price to have such small Daily moves it can mean that a large move is coming soon...

I wonder if this qualifies as bearish flag... if so then we should fall about 200 pips
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  • #9,270
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:13am Oct 31, 2013 5:13am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} I see a complete 5 wave move, A-B, and now in the C wave, this is potentially start of iii down. careful longs. full disclosure: (very) short GBP/JPY.
wave iii seems to be playing out. so far series of 1-2, 1-2. GBP/JPY is lagging compared to EUR/JPY, but chart wise, GBP/JPY has huge decline potential (more than EUR/JPY), just be patient.

*ok have to clarify my statement: more potential PROVIDED IF the very bearish scenario in EURO is not playing out YET (that means a weekly chart level move)
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  • #9,271
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:32am Oct 31, 2013 5:32am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} wave iii seems to be playing out. so far series of 1-2, 1-2. GBP/JPY is lagging compared to EUR/JPY, but chart wise, GBP/JPY has huge decline potential (more than EUR/JPY), just be patient. *ok have to clarify my statement: more potential PROVIDED IF the very bearish scenario in EURO is not playing out YET (that means a weekly chart level move)
daily still uptrend so that easy too to going up. we need more patience.
  • #9,272
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:35am Oct 31, 2013 5:35am
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} daily still uptrend so that easy too to going up. we need more patience.
yes. ofcourse - which is why profit targets will depend very much on how large these couple of days are, but looking at GBP/XXX aggregated chart and XXX/JPY charts. Both are pointing to a huge drop in the next few weeks so I would put a initial bold estimate of 152.25 for targets.

disclosure: am short, so who knows perhaps I am not being very objective! follow at your own risk.

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  • #9,273
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:58am Oct 31, 2013 5:58am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} wave iii seems to be playing out. so far series of 1-2, 1-2. GBP/JPY is lagging compared to EUR/JPY, but chart wise, GBP/JPY has huge decline potential (more than EUR/JPY), just be patient. *ok have to clarify my statement: more potential PROVIDED IF the very bearish scenario in EURO is not playing out YET (that means a weekly chart level move)
It is in wave c of 4. After completion of its triangle or wedge (still unknown) it should move to complete wave 5 (of 5 of 3) to the upside. The initial move to finish at 159.9 was the end of wave 3. The final wave should complete somewhere around 161/164, depending on when it meets the resistance that sits above.

This wave c of 4 should (theoretically) complete at maybe 156.3 ish or down around 155x, but not below 153.3. A drop below 154.6 and a close below 153.3 negates all I have just written.
  • #9,274
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:07am Oct 31, 2013 6:07am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It is in wave c of 4. After completion of its triangle or wedge (still unknown) it should move to complete wave 5 (of 5 of 3) to the upside. The initial move to finish at 159.9 was the end of wave 3. The final wave should complete somewhere around 161/164, depending on when it meets the resistance that sits above. This wave c of 4 should (theoretically) complete at maybe 156.3 ish or down around 155x, but not below 153.3. A drop below 154.6 and a close below 153.3 negates all I have just written.
yes agree with wave c, but looking at gbp charts and jpy charts separately, it seems to confirm a slightly more bearish picture - I am not sure why!
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  • #9,275
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:19am Oct 31, 2013 6:19am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yes agree with wave c, but looking at gbp charts and jpy charts separately, it seems to confirm a slightly more bearish picture - I am not sure why!
But if it still does not make a new low in this pass, it could still be in the correction, with 158.4/5 a real possibility before it leaves this present corrective phase and completes c of 4.

For example, has UJ REALLY finished its present move up (possibly its first)?? If it drops out of about 98, then GJ should follow ... but if UJ moves up to finish its first wave at about 99x, then GJ may still make 158.5 or so.

Suffice to say, I hate corrections like this.
  • #9,276
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:25am Oct 31, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} But if it still does not make a new low in this pass, it could still be in the correction, with 158.4/5 a real possibility before it leaves this present corrective phase and completes c of 4. Suffice to say, I hate corrections like this.
yes. GBP seems to hanging on for quite some days now! on the aggregated charts I am seeing a Leading diagonal to the downside, but still waiting for follow through, if not this might make another new high/lower high.

edit: on a second look, seems like the mess was wave iv of c of B of 4 of C, so this may be going up for a wave 5 of C...
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  • #9,277
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:38am Oct 31, 2013 6:38am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yes. GBP seems to hanging on for quite some days now! on the aggregated charts I am seeing a Leading diagonal to the downside, but still waiting for follow through, if not this might make another new high/lower high. edit: on a second look, seems like the mess was wave iv of c of B of 4 of C, so this may be going up for a wave 5 of C...
Yeah, they would be better described at d and e, but, frankly, just as soon as you think you've got a "handle" on some moves in corrections, it proves you wrong.

This rubbish may go on for days. A similar one in may went on for more than 10 days - this one has been 6.
  • #9,278
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:39am Oct 31, 2013 6:39am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yeah, they would be better described at d and e, but, frankly, just as soon as you think you've got a \"handle\" on some moves in corrections, it proves you wrong. This rubbish may go on for days. A similar one in may went on for more than 10 days - this one has been 6.
yeah. the count seems clearer now. planning to exit my shorts at around 157.45 and looking to reenter around 158
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  • #9,279
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:56am Oct 31, 2013 6:56am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yeah. the count seems clearer now. planning to exit my shorts at around 157.45 and looking to reenter around 158
Whatever you do, please don't allow my comments to force your choice. As I said, trying to pick the moves in corrections is hard and often wrong. You know, it may be in an expanding triangle (top 158x) or it may just be a zig zag that looks like a an expanding triangle.

A little like those folks who see rats or rabbits in photos from Mars - whereas it was just a rock and always will be a rock.

Anyway, hope it goes ok for you. Regards.
  • #9,280
  • Oct 31, 2013 7:02am Oct 31, 2013 7:02am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Whatever you do, please don't allow my comments to force your choice. As I said, trying to pick the moves in corrections is hard and often wrong. You know, it may be in an expanding triangle (top 158x) or it may just be a zig zag that looks like a an expanding triangle. A little like those folks who see rats or rabbits in photos from Mars - whereas it was just a rock and always will be a rock. Anyway, hope it goes ok for you. Regards.
no worries. I have been in this game long enough to know not to listen to comments blindly.
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