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EURUSD

  • #848,981
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:52am Oct 31, 2013 5:52am
real buying panic in the BUND market

BUND H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #848,982
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:54am Oct 31, 2013 5:54am
365x support
  • #848,983
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:55am Oct 31, 2013 5:55am
Quoting aSTRONAUT
365x support
Are you going to stand in front of another speeding Euro Train?

Didn't learn the first time, with your EJ trades?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #848,984
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:56am Oct 31, 2013 5:56am
Quoting rattyo
This pair has turned short term bearish, cable seems to doing better holding the 160's for the time being. I have some shorts running on both.

Heyaz Rat!

Where ya been hiding?

Welcome BACK!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #848,985
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:57am Oct 31, 2013 5:57am
Quoting godim
{quote} 2650 or 3650? 3650 can be after 3 days until 2650 ... ?
Price arrived a day early. For that support is on 3638

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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #848,986
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:00am Oct 31, 2013 6:00am
Nomura G10 daily

EUR – The Fomc didn’t really clear anything up last night, and the debate around tapering continues. What is pretty clear, based on the price action, is that the market is long the single currency (as we have been worried about for a while). 1.3688 has been the low so far, and I have squared my short against three areas of concern.
1 - The month-end models are all predicting a big USD sell. Whilst ours doesn’t think EUR is the main beneficiary it is unlikely to fall in this short-term environment.
2 – Eur vols have been clattered. There must be a lot of gamma in the market, and with o/n straddles break even at around 26 pips each side I feel taking profit is the right course after a 70 pip overnight move.
3 – 1.3650 is key support. It was the pre-NFP low last Tuesday, the high from October 3rd, and the base line on the Ichi charts. For me, that has to hold or the whole up move is in jeopardy.

CHF – As EUR/CHF seems to have stopped moving, the USD leg is dominating. Much like above with EUR, we are near some resistance levels. 0.9040 is the area to watch in the CHF.

GBP – all eyes on the cable trend line ( see below ) and where we close tonight will be important in the medium term, a solid break and the models will sell . End of Month so watch the supply and demand flows Eur/Gbp buying ? Dollar selling ? and how it all pans out. PMIs the focus going forward starting with Manufacturing tomorrow . Still seems to be good supply out there especially with the clearers, if being short cable is your game sell 1.6060-80 stop above 1.6120.

Sek/Nok – solid numbers yesterday out of Norway, but the buying of Nok fizzled around 8.07 , maybe we just trade a lower range now 8.06 – 8.11 , Eur Sek supply lies in the 8.80-82 zone , watch for Usd/Nok Usd/Sek end of month flows, and a little data out of both country tomorrow.

AUD – Pushed lower by the USD rally and then pulled higher by some punchy housing numbers. We have not learnt much, and with the month-end flows today and our model suggesting a strong AUD buy vs the USD the risks are for another move to the topside. I will look to sell near 0.9570. Yesterday’s 0.9440 low provides support.
NZD – Similar story to the AUD. Month-end flows should dominate. Sell the rally near 0.8320.
CAD – GDP numbers at 12.30pm will give us some momentum. Still like the topside for choice, but will look to enter fresh long at 1.0420 or a break of 1.0510

USD/JPY rallied to 98.69 after the FoMC which was not so much dovish as expected, then it retraced back to 98.30 thanks to Japanese month end USD selling and the weak risk sentiment offered by lower Nikkei by 1.2%. Flow-wise, we also saw mainly sellers overnight from both domestic and foreign accounts at 98.40/60. In terms of trading, USD/JPY is still a bit struggling to find the clear direction but I think few more USD retracement to the upside is still likely as market is a bit short ( or not enough long) and 98.00/20 will be the base as an intraday. The BOJ did nothing but it was fully expected and market reaction was muted. Levels are 98.20/97.80 as supports and 98.75/99.20 as resistances. I retain my long USD/JPY with a stop at 97.85.
  • #848,987
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:01am Oct 31, 2013 6:01am
BNP paribas update

We have revised our ECB call and now forecast a lower refinancing rate. There are two key factors driving this forecast.
First, inflation is persistently undershooting the ECB’s definition of price stability, which risks unanchoring inflation expectations on the downside.
Second, the appreciation of the exchange rate is leading to an inappropriate tightening of financial and monetary conditions in the euro area.
We see December as the most probable timing for a 25bp cut in the refi rate, in tandem with another round of low staff projections for inflation, including for 2015.
If financial and monetary conditions fail to loosen in response, there is a good chance of a further, smaller reduction in early 2014.

EUR/USD UPDATE
Some congestion here at 1.3660 short term support target - rebound now should not get back above 1.3720
Offers being lowered from 1.38s TO 1.3698-00, while the next strong support is @ 1.3590
  • #848,988
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:01am Oct 31, 2013 6:01am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Meh, lost actually 16 pips on the fail close (3715 - 369), but since I loaded more and all those trades are 28 in profit now.... What is a bummer? And how is your crystal ball?
Short going well tradertom
Cable not so good
rat
  • #848,989
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:02am Oct 31, 2013 6:02am
Quoting wannaberich
{quote} gotcha
Ok, I'm probably off until post-LO-close.
  • #848,990
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:04am Oct 31, 2013 6:04am
Quoting JeremyWS
EURUSD vs ECB nominal liquidity (inverted, white) ECB NOM LIQ is dropping fast and we'll likely see that the ECB will want to intervene via LTRO (or other measure to push EONIA lower, potentially lower Refi rate etc) Fundamentally, its hard to justify the EUR rising much more without intervention from the ECB (nov 7th ??) but not because the EUR is overvalued, but because liquidity is draining away fast. I should add, based on this the[b] EZ CPI reading later this week will be very important, under 1% and you can almost guarantee further easing...

EASY

Told you all that this crap was coming...
  • #848,991
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:04am Oct 31, 2013 6:04am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Are you going to stand in front of another speeding Euro Train? Didn't learn the first time, with your EJ trades?
i agree I got swissy @ resistance and eu @ support, but shit cant hurt to wait a little patience before jumping in
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #848,992
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:05am Oct 31, 2013 6:05am
Quoting JeremyWS
. I retain my long USD/JPY with a stop at 97.85.
Damn, Nomura has SL like me, am at 97,82. Hope I dont get hunted
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #848,993
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:08am Oct 31, 2013 6:08am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} i agree I got swissy @ resistance and eu @ support, but shit cant hurt to wait a little patience before jumping in
Ima Call on that Piters fella to give us a lesson on the Possible Head N Shoulder on the H4!

We've come a long way, but really, how much higher of highs will we see into the new year? We only gotta close bullish for a continuation and there's still a couple months worth of play room.

I ain't gunna say start selling, just saying, right now, will be cautious on the long side!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #848,994
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:09am Oct 31, 2013 6:09am
Quoting babajee
{quote} from 1.3733 tp .3663 so far so good. now st 1.3724

Hit>>>.
Good thoughts and actions can never produce bad results.
  • #848,995
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:11am Oct 31, 2013 6:11am
If we break 1.36500 look out belooow!
  • #848,996
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:11am Oct 31, 2013 6:11am
Goldman sachs on the EUR

Detailed EUR view from Jon Pierce : FOMC seemingly a touch less dovish than the market expected and with the ECB meeting now on the horizon the Euro has been the weakest performer over the past 24 hours.

The weak EZ inflation data and outlook has given people the appetite to look for ECB easing and if a December US tapering is not off the table it makes sense that EUR/USD is a bit lower.

My bias though is that the market might be reading too much into the FED and likewise think the ECB may disappoint those expecting action. I broadly favour buying dips but think we will continue to trade a range and imagine the topside will also be capped for now.

Support 1.3670 and last weeks 1.3650 low ; resistance at 1.3750 and at yesterdays 1.3787 high. Preference is to buy dips with a stop below 1.3650, but generally staying flexible.
  • #848,997
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:11am Oct 31, 2013 6:11am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Ok, I'm probably off until post-LO-close.
ny open could be the turn... 33 to 10 seems buyable to me. in fact i have no levels below those LOLOL
dreams do come true.
  • #848,998
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:12am Oct 31, 2013 6:12am
Quoting hadox
got 1.362x for the euro, perhaps 1.359x for an extension.. testing the bottom of the zone atm, lets see..

for me next = > 1.3635
  • #848,999
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:14am Oct 31, 2013 6:14am
eur could still make this month's candle RED
  • #849,000
  • Edited 6:26am Oct 31, 2013 6:15am | Edited 6:26am
35:1 and loading.

edit: K, 36:1 total. This level had enough.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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