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Sonic R. System

  • #61,501
  • Oct 30, 2013 4:59am Oct 30, 2013 4:59am
Quoting sonicdeejay
EJ is getting near and near to resistance area.... BUT.. Should only start to Short when the price actions show.. My 2 days old EJ long is Doing well.. Sonic P.s. having fun with mrs sonic n lil sonic..on holiday.. {image} {image}
It seems that he still has some development. I see no reverse pattern, yet.

Sir, nice room, nice holiday.
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Newbie trader
  • #61,502
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:38am Oct 30, 2013 6:38am
GU - expecting some higher activity in 50-61.8fibo area. Smart money has the time to do that until today's FOMC.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #61,503
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:43am Oct 30, 2013 6:43am
Quoting fex
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post6703451
Thx fex much appreciated
  • #61,504
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:48am Oct 30, 2013 6:48am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Tah's templates and indicators. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post6707275

thank you very much
  • #61,505
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:56am Oct 30, 2013 6:56am
Nice place to think abt pirority..

Sonic
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  • #61,506
  • Oct 30, 2013 7:36am Oct 30, 2013 7:36am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} See... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exSt--suaA0 Sonic {image}
23 hrs later..

Told cha..

Sonic
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  • #61,507
  • Oct 30, 2013 8:08am Oct 30, 2013 8:08am
Quoting mtrader123
Classic long setup on eurjpy. h4 trend is up.. {image}
Do you see what is wrong with your classic wave?

Did you read classic entry rules?

Placement of EP
Wait for a WAVE leg #3 candle to break out of the DRAGON, and place your entry order at least several pips beyond it. It is better if there is no strong S&R area just beyond the entry. Remember also, it is best if PA is above TREND for longs, below TREND for shorts.

In your case, entry point is just a little bit below the resistance area.

Maybe you are lucky this time, because smart money just pushing the price up for adding shorts. But definitely this kind of waves doesn't work!

If you want to get better understanding of sonic waves, go back and look at the posts March-April 2013 (earlier posts also). There are a lot of examples of correct waves.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #61,508
  • Oct 30, 2013 8:21am Oct 30, 2013 8:21am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Do you see what is wrong with your classic wave? Did you read classic entry rules? Placement of EP Wait for a WAVE leg #3 candle to break out of the DRAGON, and place your entry order at least several pips beyond it. It is better if there is no strong S&R area just beyond the entry. Remember also, it is best if PA is above TREND for longs, below TREND for shorts. In your case, entry point is just a little bit below resistance area. Maybe you are lucky this time, because smart money just pushing the price up for adding shorts. But definitely...

loeil,

Your post, .....excellent, excellent, excellent! The Devil is in the Details, and this is one very important detail! Excellent that you should point out the overlooking of this, loeil.

Sonicers, we can never know if a S/R area will hold back price movement, or if price will push past it. Entering a Classic setup that faces nearby S/R is not automatically a trade killer, but why take the chance? This is akin to ignoring the recommendation to only enter a trade during the London session. You can enter outside the London session, but they have a higher risk of not turning out well, so why take the chance?
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  • #61,509
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:09am Oct 30, 2013 9:09am
UJ?

For those stalking this for a long trade, yesterday the H1 Dragon crossed up thru the Trend Line, and as with EJ there was a strong move upwards which could be a move up thru a whole number for shorting, or could be genuine buying. Time will tell. So far, all that time has revealed with UJ is a minor spike down on notable volume. This is MMs at work hitting SLs of longs to create liquidity for getting their own long orders filled. Therefore, the only recent clue we have is that the MMs are bulls.

Price is lingering in the 1/4 SR area until further notice, which might be the FOMC Statement in just under 4 hours. Personally, I expect this could whipsaw, but I want to wait and see exactly what happens. I'd prefer to enter a long closer to the lower whole number. So far, since the Dragon crossed the Trend Line on H1 there has not been a typical pull back down to/into/thru the Dragon to indicate strong bulls manipulating price lower to add longs. This is what I am waiting for.
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  • #61,510
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:17am Oct 30, 2013 9:17am
UCad:

Signs the market is going with USD strength.....
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  • #61,511
  • Edited 10:09am Oct 30, 2013 9:53am | Edited 10:09am
EU Possible H & S H4 with high activity selling. Maybe sign of USD strength.
Edit: I have taken a short 1.3765
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  • #61,512
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:09am Oct 30, 2013 10:09am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Do you see what is wrong with your classic wave? Did you read classic entry rules? Placement of EP Wait for a WAVE leg #3 candle to break out of the DRAGON, and place your entry order at least several pips beyond it. It is better if there is no strong S&R area just beyond the entry. Remember also, it is best if PA is above TREND for longs, below TREND for shorts. In your case, entry point is just a little bit below the resistance area. Maybe you are lucky this time, because smart money just pushing the price up for adding shorts. But definitely...
Yes mate, you are right, there is a potentially strong S/R level I have to watch.
Thanks for the march april 2013 hint, will have a look..
  • #61,513
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:10am Oct 30, 2013 10:10am
Quoting FXDrJ
EU Possible H & S H4 with high activity selling. Maybe sign of USD strength. {image}
EU:

I agree. There are signs showing up on various pairs that the market is going with USD strength for the time being. In addition to your H&S "heads up" here, on M15 the notable volumes in the US session are for moves to highs, at highs and moves off of highs, indicating the MMs are bears.
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  • #61,514
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:10am Oct 30, 2013 11:10am
Quoting traderathome
UJ? For those stalking this for a long trade, yesterday the H1 Dragon crossed up thru the Trend Line, and as with EJ there was a strong move upwards which could be a move up thru a whole number for shorting, or could be genuine buying. Time will tell. So far, all that time has revealed with UJ is a minor spike down on notable volume. This is MMs at work hitting SLs of longs to create liquidity for getting their own long orders filled. Therefore, the only recent clue we have is that the MMs are bulls. Price is lingering in the 1/4 SR area until further...
UJ Analysis

Daily Chart:

  1. On the daily chart it is clear to see that prior to the symmetrical triangle there was an upwards trend
  2. Price has then settled into a symmetrical triangle (Higher lows and Lower Highs) This is a very BULLISH pattern!

15MIN Chart:

  1. On the 15 min chart we can clearly see the accumulation phase where the MMs were building their long positions with the use of high volume underneath the 97.500 (half number). Bulls build position underneath these prices! BULLS
  2. This was followed by a high volume mark up in price. The price then moved sideways for a while building more long positions and then marked up again
  3. This was then followed by a distribution phase where the price was moving sideways. Generally this means the MMs are building short positions above the whole number 98.000 before its downwards descent. BEARS.

in the 15 min I have also highlighted the red box where you can see a HIGH volume RED candle. This has made me to an extent question if the MMs are BEARS. It seems to me they dropped the price in order to get better prices for their LONGS.

MMs are BULLS..

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  • #61,515
  • Edited 11:32am Oct 30, 2013 11:21am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting marvas
{quote} UJ Analysis Daily Chart: On the daily chart it is clear to see that prior to the symmetrical triangle there was an upwards trend Price has then settled into a symmetrical triangle (Higher lows and Lower Highs) This is a very BULLISH pattern!15MIN Chart: On the 15 min chart we can clearly see the accumulation phase where the MMs were building their long positions with the use of high volume underneath the 97.500 (half number). Bulls build position underneath these prices! BULLS This was followed by a high volume mark up in price. The price...
I like your analysis but I'm not agree that it is a distribution on M15 chart.

Today's highest volume appears on a down bar. STRENGTH appears on a down bar. So this is not a distribution on M15, I think this is a re-accumulation.

So I think that M15 is BULLISH also.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #61,516
  • Edited 11:34am Oct 30, 2013 11:22am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting marvas
{quote} UJ Analysis Daily Chart: On the daily chart it is clear to see that prior to the symmetrical triangle there was an upwards trend Price has then settled into a symmetrical triangle (Higher lows and Lower Highs) This is a very BULLISH pattern!15MIN Chart: On the 15 min chart we can clearly see the accumulation phase where the MMs were building their long positions with the use of high volume underneath the 97.500 (half number). Bulls build position underneath these prices! BULLS This was followed by a high volume mark up in price. The price...
marvas,

I find your analyses always informative and nicely done at that. You are an asset to this thread. Thank you, marvas.

With previous notable volumes at all the spikes to lows, no wonder this is bullish, because the price has yet to actually do something significant. The market did not load up longs just for a meager profit of 100 pips on the average, did it? Well, at times it might, but this time I get the feeling more is in the works. I am still waiting to see what the market does with FOMC in about 1.5 hours. Because I see price, volume and SR analyzed as bullish (PVSRA), I am looking to add long just below the whole number if there is an accommodating whipsaw.
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  • #61,517
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:30am Oct 30, 2013 11:30am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} marvas, I find your analyses always informative and nicely done at that. You are an asset to this thread. Thank you, marvas.
And vice versa. I've learnt so much from this thread and from posters such as yourself, sonic, loeil, islander.....!

so I thank you for your help that has been better than any book that I've read concerning the forex market
  • #61,518
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:32am Oct 30, 2013 11:32am
Quoting loeil
{quote} I like your analysis but I'm not agree that it is a distribution on M15 chart. Today's highest volume appears on a down bar. STRENGTH appears on a down bar. So this is not a distribution on M15, I think this is a re-accumulation. So I think that M15 is BULLISH. {image}
Up until that red downward high volume bar I was slightly BEARISH. But after seeing that It changed my outlook to BULLISH!
  • #61,519
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:33am Oct 30, 2013 11:33am
Quoting marvas
{quote} Up until that red downward high volume bar I was slightly BEARISH. But after seeing that It changed my outlook to BULLISH!
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #61,520
  • Edited 11:57am Oct 30, 2013 11:47am | Edited 11:57am
EUR/GBP = BEAR

Looks EXTREMELY bearish. Maybe FOMC will get the fireworks going.
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Take what the market gives you.
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