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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,601
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:37pm Oct 29, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting DingDongWay
I think the main push for this pair might not be coming from US itself although no doubt US effects may contribute to this pair on the upwards/downwards swing by in an 'uptrend' on USD/JPY... Instead im rather expecting the more to come from Japan.... One thing, we've been focusing on the US economy, but on the other part the push factors from the other economy might be the ones in relation... Just my view....

Yes, Japan also is very important factor, Japanese will to do something about stagnation is more reliable for bulls than some spectacular recovery in US. Japanese are sick of stagnation and they want their Nikkei up and they will do it no matter what, it's a samurai thing

EDIT: resistance at 127.80/128 at US10y t-notes is still holding, IF price fails here UJ will get more fuel.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,602
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:46pm Oct 29, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} Yes, Japan also is very important factor, Japanese will to do something about stagnation is more reliable for bulls than some spectacular recovery in US. Japanese are sick of stagnation and they want their Nikkei up and they will do it no matter what, it's a samurai thing EDIT: resistance at 127.80/128 at US10y t-notes is still holding, IF price fails here UJ will get more fuel.
Samurai thing..... i couldnt help it, just crossed my mind... lol
Attached Image
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,603
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:49pm Oct 29, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Samurai thing..... i couldnt help it, just crossed my mind... lol

yes, that's the spirit
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,604
  • Oct 29, 2013 4:53pm Oct 29, 2013 4:53pm
It was well played in UJ. 97.50 was a key support with 38.2 retracement from the previous leg and sure enough it provided another impulsive leg without even looking back once. Whoever is holding longs from 97 like me, cheers~
Now let's focus on FOMC.
  • #38,605
  • Oct 29, 2013 6:54pm Oct 29, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting DingDongWay
Green Pips Everyone .... Strength level is so strong it shot passed 98.1... Next level to watch in my view for another entry for a buy in smaller tf is the reaction around 98.6 area.... Higher TF like H4 D1 and Mth Signifying higher prices like 100 / 104....
Bro,
I suggest that you re-assess. The volume distribution shows that we are going to see lower prices for the next 24 hrs.
Enjoy your day.
  • #38,606
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:00pm Oct 29, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Bro, I suggest that you re-assess. The volume distribution shows that we are going to see lower prices for the next 24 hrs. Enjoy your day.
98.20, 4H 200sma pinbar right on there. Fast instruments show overbought markets and a correction is needed. Staying long from 97.05 though because I agree with DDW that we still got some targets to hit up there.

100+ on this cycle is not happening though
  • #38,607
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:06pm Oct 29, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting GqOrlando
{quote} 98.20, 4H 200sma pinbar right on there. Fast instruments show overbought markets and a correction is needed. Staying long from 97.05 though because I agree with DDW that we still got some targets to hit up there. 100+ on this cycle is not happening though
I'm watching the 99 level carefully. I think we get a pull back right around there and then its up, up and away.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #38,608
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:17pm Oct 29, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I'm watching the 99 level carefully. I think we get a pull back right around there and then its up, up and away.
top of the range on the daily triangle. I have my long targets there but the elvels that I´m watching is 98.83: FE 224 & bullish gartley targets + strong resistance area.


As we speak UJ burst through previous resistance 200sma etc...


http://i.imgur.com/lFXunt8.jpg
  • #38,609
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:39pm Oct 29, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Bro, I suggest that you re-assess. The volume distribution shows that we are going to see lower prices for the next 24 hrs. Enjoy your day.
Hi bro, thanks for your caution... appreciated.. Thats one of the reason i am looking imm level at around 98.6 area.. i do not think we might get a one way trip up north too based on my bias,but if we do so that's a bonus...

On other hand we might result in lower prices of the current level but i do not see the price shooting anywhere far below area of 97.8 / 98....

Just my view... i might be wrong too...

Thanks again once more
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,610
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:51pm Oct 29, 2013 7:51pm
Price just formed a new peak volume price. It seems to me that 98.26 will remain the resistance for the rest of the trading session.
  • #38,611
  • Oct 29, 2013 7:56pm Oct 29, 2013 7:56pm
Adding on... based on my take( it might not seems for everyone, its individual and it might not seems this way for everyone )... Personally overbought oversold prices in my view, it either take a correction move to significant prices away from current price be it up on a downward behaviour of a market vice versa for otherwise, Or a side way movements over a period of time for the price to be 'digested' over this amount of time for a continuation of the previous move or reversal... above 2 scenarios of consolidating with accordance to the effects...

My take on these current prices behavior of UJ in lower timeframes, its already doing so.... hence thats the reason for my views....

Just seems like a higher probability to me that the current price of UJ might falls under such consolidation mode at the moment but nevertheless i may be wrong...

Off to bed ! Gd luck everyone
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,612
  • Oct 29, 2013 9:00pm Oct 29, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting iahmedz
{quote} Could you really wait for two months? I do not see 104 till next month time


Next month? No.

You’re not going to see this pair making new multi-year highs until the BOJ announces additional stimulus measures, currently predicted by economists to be in the first half of next year to combat deflation. Also probably around the same time the Fed starts its tapering program.

The worse the inflation data, the higher the chances the schedule (and size) of this is pushed forward. Better inflation data would do the opposite; it would push out the need for the BOJ to act. Here you have a case of bad news is good news for anyone shorting Yen.

I don’t think the USD will have much effect other than short term moves based on economic news, just like we have been seeing the last few months. Everyone starts calling for 94 when we hit the low 97s, or 105 when we hit the high 98s – all so wrong.

The market sees this range as fair pricing, it needs a very large catalyst (as in unexpected news) to move it anywhere else.
  • #38,613
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:52am Oct 30, 2013 1:52am
Quoting seandean
{quote} Next month? No. You’re not going to see this pair making new multi-year highs until the BOJ announces additional stimulus measures, currently predicted by economists to be in the first half of next year to combat deflation. Also probably around the same time the Fed starts its tapering program. The worse the inflation data, the higher the chances the schedule (and size) of this is pushed forward. Better inflation data would do the opposite; it would push out the need for the BOJ to act. Here you have a case of bad news is good news for anyone...

Hi Seandean - I agree with your assessment here. In addition, the following also supports the view:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...-decision.html

PS: Thanks again for the book recommendations. Still working my way through them but I understand option strategies and have also been demo some options trading
  • #38,614
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:53am Oct 30, 2013 1:53am
Still holding my longs from 97.06
  • #38,615
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:41am Oct 30, 2013 2:41am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Bro, I suggest that you re-assess. The volume distribution shows that we are going to see lower prices for the next 24 hrs. Enjoy your day.

what are you talking about? mind to explain? looks like things going higher
  • #38,616
  • Oct 30, 2013 3:32am Oct 30, 2013 3:32am
Quoting seandean
{quote} Next month? No. You’re not going to see this pair making new multi-year highs until the BOJ announces additional stimulus measures, currently predicted by economists to be in the first half of next year to combat deflation. Also probably around the same time the Fed starts its tapering program. The worse the inflation data, the higher the chances the schedule (and size) of this is pushed forward. Better inflation data would do the opposite; it would push out the need for the BOJ to act. Here you have a case of bad news is good news for anyone...
i just want to say i enjoy reading your fair view of the current status. thanks!
  • #38,617
  • Oct 30, 2013 3:49am Oct 30, 2013 3:49am
Quoting iamkjb
On my watch list. Plenty of possibilities, but there could be a Gartley developing. {image}
So far so good.

Looking like a flat continuation pattern on the M30.
  • #38,618
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:11am Oct 30, 2013 6:11am
Rumour of a large option expiry today at 98.20 - possible massive drop?
  • #38,619
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:30am Oct 30, 2013 6:30am
Quoting bulltrader13
Rumour of a large option expiry today at 98.20 - possible massive drop?
Do you think that before tomorrows BOJ (statement, presscon) events market will drop massively as they might start to further communicate the extension of the stimulus...?
  • #38,620
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:31am Oct 30, 2013 6:31am
Quoting bulltrader13
Rumour of a large option expiry today at 98.20 - possible massive drop?
be very careful. Fed expected to keep QE which usually means drops in USD. BUT we always have buy on rumor sell on fact.
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