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  • #847,801
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:16am Oct 29, 2013 3:16am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote}
By itself it might give that impression, but applied correctly with understanding of supply and demand, psychology, and sentiment, it makes sense a lot of times. BTW money management is a key component of strategy.
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #847,802
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:18am Oct 29, 2013 3:18am
Quoting milam
{quote} lol. Think about it my friend.... just think about it.... And to answer your question.... the one that fails perform better and the failure of a fail one even better.....
so, you don't think TA is BS or you do?
  • #847,803
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:23am Oct 29, 2013 3:23am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} so, you don't think TA is BS or you do?
I think it is BS
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #847,804
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:30am Oct 29, 2013 3:30am
Quoting milam
{quote} I think it is BS
UC long@ 89627
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #847,805
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:33am Oct 29, 2013 3:33am
a colourful chart to contemplate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4.jpg Size: 222 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #847,806
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:35am Oct 29, 2013 3:35am
hi...

its been 5days since my last buy with full margin at 3815.. now i only have 489% hold left.
i hope it'll go up...
  • #847,807
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:38am Oct 29, 2013 3:38am
Quoting Matts Micro
a colourful chart to contemplate {image}
And one from me, three double bottoms
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 559241_10200796938995452_1335624964_n.jpg Size: 79 KB
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #847,808
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:39am Oct 29, 2013 3:39am
Quoting USD-Bear
chancing a short SPX @ 1761.1 SPX500 H1: {image}
bad entry, stopped @ 1766
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #847,809
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:40am Oct 29, 2013 3:40am
Quoting e12ys
hi... its been 5days since my last buy with full margin at 3815.. now i only have 489% hold left. i hope it'll go up...
It's not going up
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #847,810
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:43am Oct 29, 2013 3:43am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} It's not going up
Anything is possible

But taking a long at the top, and after a 1000 pips move up is not a brillant idea.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #847,811
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:47am Oct 29, 2013 3:47am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Anything is possible But taking a long at the top, and after a 1000 pips move up is not a brillant idea.
But we are going to 1.40 ?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,812
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:49am Oct 29, 2013 3:49am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Anything is possible But taking a long at the top, and after a 1000 pips move up is not a brillant idea.
Correction Taking Along at the top with full magin w/o tite SL is not a good idea
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #847,813
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:50am Oct 29, 2013 3:50am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} But we are going to 1.40 ?!
U think so, May be during FOMC
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #847,814
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:50am Oct 29, 2013 3:50am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} But we are going to 1.40 ?!
If so it would be great to buy lower

It could be a fun day with all the US news coming up later
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #847,815
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:53am Oct 29, 2013 3:53am
From SocGen


o The market remains in relatively tight ranges as positions become increasingly trimmed ahead of FOMC tomorrow. The main focus today will be on US Retail Sales
o Main mover overnight was the Aussie after the RBA governor commented its too high; AUD/USD came off from 0.9580 before finding support ahead of 0.9500. AUD/JPY selling added to the pressure on the downside. We had been looking to sell AUD/USD but missed the boat yesterday and don’t want to chase the move lower. We remain looking to sell AUD/USD on rallies at 0.9550 and 0.9580 with a s/l above 0.9600 for a test below 0.9500 and onwards to 0.9425
o Yen crosses continue to struggle but USD/JPY continues to trade in its 97.00-98.00 range. We favor buying dips towards the October trend support which is at 97.00 and leave a tight intraday s/l below recent lows at 96.80-60. We would then target a short term rally up to 98.00
o UK money supply is the main focus this morning with regards to Sterling data. We still try and sell rallies in Cable towards 1.6130 and 1.6160 with a s/l (intraday) above 1.6200. We are looking for a correction back towards the 1.6000 handle
o EUR/GBP still looks like it wants to test higher towards 0.8600-10. Here we are looking to buy dips towards 0.8540 with a s/l below 0.8520
o EUR/USD looks trapped between recent resistances at 1.3810 and 1.3770. If EUR/USD is going to retrace, it needs to do it sooner rather than later as we think the market still wants to buy dips but we’re not getting the move..If we did see lower, dips towards 1.3700 could be bought (decent risk/reward). Elsewhere, if the 1.3833 level is broken, we could see a move towards 1.3900 and possibly 1.4000
  • #847,816
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:53am Oct 29, 2013 3:53am
Citibank G10 Trader Views:

GBP

Yesterday we highlighted that the repeated failure to break 1.6260, and inability of the proud pound to maintain a 1.62 handle was not particularly bullish. Momentum waned and eventually we broke 1.6215 in Asia trading to 1.6160 very quickly. We running short cash and bought 1.61/1.60 put spreads as we felt there simply wasn’t any follow through and the path of least resistance was indeed south. EURGBP also broke 0.8555, which was the previous recent high. I continue to think you sell rallies in cable now 1.6115/20 initially and can have a sl at 1.6165. The cross, I am less inclined to be long as I think EUR has to catch up with this AUD and cable move.

EUR

EURUSD seems to be holding up very well given the moves lower in the AUD and GBP. For the first time in a week I feel like we could correct to the downside today and so have sold EURUSD at 1.3785 with a tight 1.3830 stop looking for a move to 1.3740. I do not think the uptrend is over, I merely am looking for a tactical day trade for EURUSD to potentially catch up to some of the other currencies. With the market so well prepared for a dovish outcome from the FOMC tomorrow the risk may turn out to be they are slightly more hawkish than anticipated. On the day 1.3765/70 then 1.3740 should be support. Up to 1.3820 then 1.3835 should be good resistance.

JPY

USDJPY failed to make any headway yesterday with a small rally towards the 97.80 level again, where decent supply was noted. The market is focusing on tomorrows fed meeting and the flow surrounding month end both which could weigh further on price action. Positioning continues to favour the long side for the medium term community but it feels like the short term guys continue to play the range with sellers noted into these rallies. However, we have stalled once again ahead of the 200d MA which has settled around 97.40. AUDJPY has lost ground and has also weighed on USDJPY with RBAs Stevens comments on the currency triggering another sell off. AUDJPY traded back towards 97.20. With this I feel we will continue to range play with a bias towards the downside on the day. A small short into these upticks is the favoured play given positioning and the lack of impetus to push for new highs in the current environment.

Scandies

EURSEK price action was more upbeat yesterday after a weaker data print saw positioning suffer as the market scrambled to regain shorts. It has to be said since we have done very little and it feels like a small sell could be a better play here ahead of the 8.78/8.80 congestion zone and the fact weaker shorts have likely squared. EURNOK is very range bound with local demand stalling any weaker price action and the topside littered with offers that are keeping the pair in a confined range currently. A sell rally strategy remains in place although range play is likely to continue as the markets focus turns towards month end.

CAD

Strategy remains the same with USDCAD happily trading on a 1.04 handle. Dips down to 1.0420 and 1.0400 should attract decent buying interest ahead of today's Industrial Production while some supply remains towards 1.0450/60. On the crosses EURCAD is now approaching support and buy zone at 1.4370 with further support at 1.0450.. I still like the pair higher with 1.4440 the immediate target before 1.4500.

AUD/ NZD

AUD broke the support at 0.9575 yesterday and the sell off has continued overnight sparked by Stevens' comments that the ccy will be materially lower in the future. My thoughts that the RBA wouldn't be overly concerned that we've had a slight rally since the meeting at the beginning of October were quite clearly wrong. Any rally back towards 0.9575/0.9600 will now be the sell zone . Above there we have 0.9650/75 then the key 0.9725/30. It is, however, worth noting that we have Chinese PMI at the end of the week and a strong number could see a temporary spike. EURAUD continues its march higher, but we are approaching some key resistance up at 1.4575.

NZD is holding in relatively well as the mrkt starts to sell some of its long AUDNZD position. There are decent corp bids back towards 0.8200/25 which should contain us for the time being . But with the AUD on a back foot a rally could be pretty tough. Expect a 0.8220/0.8320 range until Friday .
  • #847,817
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:54am Oct 29, 2013 3:54am
Finally, Goldman Sachs on the CHF

CHF from trading– USDCHF grinds higher as EURCHF breaks back through the 200 DMA and alleviates some of the downward pressure. With EURUSD having stalled, and cable and Aussie washing out some of the consensus positioning, the risks may be skewed towards a minor relief rally with 0.8970/75 the first topside level to respect (overnight highs, the cycle lows we broke through last week at 0.8967). Support on the session should come in at 0.8930 and then the double bottom from last week (0.8891) with the charts showing decent support towards 0.88/8850 on a long term basis.

It seems as though the market expects tomorrow evenings FOMC to be a non event - any suggestion of a change in trajectory from the committee would undermine credibility given the limited and lackluster data set we have had since September.
  • #847,818
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:55am Oct 29, 2013 3:55am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Anything is possible But taking a long at the top, and after a 1000 pips move up is not a brillant idea.
yup sometime trader drown in euphoria of rally or fall, forgets basics, top in one timeframe can be bottom in another, is sad, but not unusual
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #847,819
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:56am Oct 29, 2013 3:56am
Hi All
It's going down, and signal was confirmed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4 20131029.png Size: 67 KB
People are not good at acting, but very good at judgment.
  • #847,820
  • Oct 29, 2013 3:58am Oct 29, 2013 3:58am
Quoting JeremyWS
Citibank G10 Trader Views:
[i]EUR

EURUSD seems to be holding up very well given the moves lower in the AUD and GBP. For the first time in a week I feel like we could correct to the downside today and so have sold EURUSD at 1.3785 with a tight 1.3830 stop looking for a move to 1.3740. I do not think the uptrend is over, I merely am looking for a tactical day trade for EURUSD to potentially catch up to some of the other currencies. With the market so...
This is, how they do it? Come on... a tight 45 pip stop for a whooping 45 pip gain?
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