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EURUSD

  • #847,521
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:33am Oct 28, 2013 5:33am
It is really ridiculous to see announcements like "it will either sky rocket or drop"...well I keep on asking what are the other directions (sideways is not a direction)?
You find your own way of trading and just keep yourself updated of others trading methods and opinions, but not taking them as signals.

Have a good day all.
  • #847,522
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:52am Oct 28, 2013 5:52am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} First target is around 0.9528, second 0.9470.But will make sure when it complete the reversal.
Price stalled.Allready short audusd in case it don't see 0.9632. 0.9610 - 0.9640 area is good for sell.
  • #847,523
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:09am Oct 28, 2013 6:09am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Price stalled.Allready short audusd in case it don't see 0.9632. 0.9610 - 0.9640 area is good for sell.
Yes, I was worried that I may have entered the trade too early, but I think it's about right.

Thanks for the target info. Good luck.
  • #847,524
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:14am Oct 28, 2013 6:14am
Quoting okanemici
Fasten seat belts and get ready to exit longs in audusd and short it around 0.9632-40 !!! Oh baby
Price stalled and allready short audusd now. If anyone is interested in going bed with devil , Geppy is a strong 157.70 sell stop this week , let me tell you guys
  • #847,525
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:38am Oct 28, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} Yes, I was worried that I may have entered the trade too early, but I think it's about right. Thanks for the target info. Good luck.
Good luck to you too.Here are the revised targets as it reversed. Past 0.9570 , they are 0.9536 - 0.9483 - 0.9394.Expect pullbacks and continuations at those 1st and 2nd levels.
  • #847,526
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:28am Oct 28, 2013 7:28am
May i ask a more constructive question: Any idea why EUR50 is selling hard today & both the S&p and Nikkie are down? Did anything came out i'm not aware of ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,527
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:30am Oct 28, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Vachus
May i ask a more constructive question: Any idea why EUR50 is selling hard today & both the S&p and Nikkie are down? Did anything came out i'm not aware of ?
if you check the EUROSTOXX bank index that is down hard due to the low liquidity in the EZ banking system being finally realized.

I posted a chart yesterday about it and the relationship with the EUR, that is why we are a little lower this morning.
  • #847,528
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:31am Oct 28, 2013 7:31am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} First target is around 0.9528, second 0.9470.But will make sure when it complete the reversal.
Don't think it'll go that low, I'm buying actually form here
  • #847,529
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:31am Oct 28, 2013 7:31am
some people like these so I'll post more from time to time

JP Morgan London G10 Desk Daily Commentary:

EUR

Quiet weekend and Asian session leaves EURUSD entirely unchanged from Friday’s close and somewhat lacking in direction on the day. Higher highs and higher lows intraday along with the close above 1.3800 Friday can only be interpreted as bullish signals, but absent any further weak US data we may struggle to make headway north of 1.3830/40 as it is clear the market is becoming increasingly happy to fund in Euros at these levels. I remain a buyer on dips anywhere towards 1.3780, although I will keep a tight stop through 1.3760 on the day. Above 1.3711 and the broader uptrend remains intact, but I expect consolidation and profit taking to weigh on the pair on what is likely to be a quiet morning ahead of US industrial production this afternoon.

GBP

Unless you want a weather update, there is very little to say about the UK right now. Cable spent all last week in a 140 point range and we are opening bang in the middle this morning. There isn't much data out this week so we are probably looking to month end flows to finally drag us from the current boredom. Until then, play the range and/or any eventual break. EUR GBP is similar with the parameters at 0.8500 and 0.8555. With EUR USD still bid, I would expect the topside to be tested though, against that, that's probably the move the market is looking for. luck.

JPY

With the Nikkei reversing much of Friday's losses, the yen is weaker this morning but whereas stocks are moving 1 and 2 pc regularly, USD JPY is struggling to move 0.5pc. This suggests positioning is light and, whilst that remains, 96.85-97.85 seems a logical range. The order book gives no pointers and it looks like another quiet Monday.

CHF

EURCHF’s resurgence Friday dragged USDCHF off the lows, through some short term stops above 30 all the way to the perfect sell zone ahead of the 0.8970 pivot. With US yields tip-toeing back above the 2.50 level I am somewhat more cautious today and will be more inclined to play the 0.8890/00-0.8965 range, with a bias to sell the rally. EURCHF surged back above the 200 DMA Friday and managed to just about hold it on the close, despite the renewed pressure on USDCHF late in the session. Above 1.2350 and we can start having another look at the month’s highs at 1.23755, while back through 1.2320 and 1.2280 becomes the focus. Good luck.

AUD

A subdued night in Asia for the antipodeans and with little in the way of data today and a nasty storm to contend with for desks in London a rangy drift should be the order of the day. There remains good interest to buy aud sub 0.9580 with 0.9550 still the key support level to the downside. If we do start to see a little impatience from the dips buyers in aud we could see the pair chased back up to 0.9630-40 before a little selling interest re-emerges. Overall I like selling aud on the 0.9700 handle but will look to play the 0.9575-0.9630 range today. Over in nzd things also remained quite with the locals out for a bank holiday. The pair shook off yet more comments from the RBNZ’s Wheeler, this time in the weekend papers, voicing concerns about the strength of the bird and that it could lead to a delay in rate hikes. Nothing new really but it does perhaps increase interest in the RBNZ’s meeting later this week. I like playing the ranges in nzd today too albeit with slight bullish bias; buying dips ahead of 0.8250 and exiting longs between 0.8325 and 0.8330.

CAD

Today is St Jude’s day, the patron saint of lost causes, but things are changing and St Jude is (hopefully) no longer the unofficial patron saint for people that take positions in usdcad. The currency pair saw more interest late last week than for a very long time and I am optimistic we are entering a period of renewed volatility and even a trend in the pair. I still remain bullish usdcad overall following last week’s dovish shift by the BoC and will keep a core long looking to add to the position on pull backs to 1.0400-10. To the topside 1.0500-10 will provide the next major level of resistance followed by the old highs just above 1.0570. The loonie should continue to struggle on the crosses but I would like to see 1.4450 break in eurcad before I considered adding to longs.
  • #847,530
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:35am Oct 28, 2013 7:35am
Quoting cspip
{quote} Don't think it'll go that low, I'm buying actually form here
Woooowww good luck ! Target doesnt mean it has to go there.if it goes south those are the targets ok ?
  • #847,531
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:37am Oct 28, 2013 7:37am
Quoting Matts Micro
This is the action from last time we were at these levels just over 2 years ago. {image}
I guess history can repeat. I don't norm use these methods but a weekly fib level is something to take into account.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #847,532
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:40am Oct 28, 2013 7:40am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} if you check the EUROSTOXX bank index that is down hard due to the low liquidity in the EZ banking system being finally realized. I posted a chart yesterday about it and the relationship with the EUR, that is why we are a little lower this morning.
I just went to my broker's feed and found an article talks about the same thing u mentioned few days ago " the Eonia rate ". It seems that Eonia's excess liquidity has dropped today towards 197 B and the rate is edging higher ... ( Question: Increase in Eonia rate's means banks are more senstive towards money outflow , so it should be an alarming sign for a liquidity squeeze ? Am i correct ?! )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,533
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:46am Oct 28, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I just went to my broker's feed and found an article talks about the same thing u mentioned few days ago \" the Eonia rate \". It seems that Eonia's excess liquidity has dropped today towards 197 B and the rate is edging higher ... ( Question: Increase in Eonia rate's means banks are more senstive towards money outflow , so it should be an alarming sign for a liquidity squeeze ? Am i correct ?! )
EONIA rate will tend to rise when liquidity is dropping, and as such other rates will start to rise - this is not good for eurozone at the moment

therefore the ECB will force the EONIA rate lower, either by a refi rate cut or by more LTRO etc.

All bearish for the EUR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eonia.png Size: 46 KB
  • #847,534
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:07am Oct 28, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Vachus
May i ask a more constructive question: Any idea why EUR50 is selling hard today & both the S&p and Nikkie are down? Did anything came out i'm not aware of ?
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #847,535
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:12am Oct 28, 2013 8:12am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Something I am following - just a different view. Indicator based. Could be the start of a bearish wave back to the moving average - weekly chart. Not saying it is turning now - the nett result should be short wave though. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Regards {image}
How are we looking so far?

Got a few shorties running - this for the next few weeks.

Trade well

Regards
  • #847,536
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:16am Oct 28, 2013 8:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhZULM69DIw
Your point ?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #847,537
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:22am Oct 28, 2013 8:22am
Quoting gatorinla
the dow also has a possible correction in the works. it could be 1537 and just go higher in a mirror image. or do this in a large normal correction. back to February levels or more. it has to make a HH or this will happen.. no ifs and or buts.. in a smaller correction the chart would be a half move correction (target mid)_, just divide the level by 2. where the top would be is not shown or known.. it just has to go higher or it will go lower. the - 1474 dip shown has the bulls at a weaker stage for the mirror to go 100%. in the chart it may not...
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #847,538
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:22am Oct 28, 2013 8:22am
Following along these lines on bigger timeframe, I am adding to shorts up here:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 27oct13euro1hourshort2.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 28oct13euroshort.png Size: 14 KB
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #847,539
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:24am Oct 28, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Your point ?!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post7053237
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #847,540
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:29am Oct 28, 2013 8:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post7053237
Thanks
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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